Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the time series behavior of the real exchange rate is well approximated by a nonlinear, exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model. This nonlinearity helps resolve a number of puzzles concerning the persistence and volatility of real exchange rates. In this paper, we explore whether it may also help resolve the well-known difficulties of exchange rate forecasting. We develop a bootstrap test of the random walk hypothesis of the nominal exchange rate, given ESTAR real exchange rate dynamics. We find strong evidence of predictability at horizons of 2 to 3 years, but not at shorter horizons.     

Hospitality service failures: Who will be more dissatisfied?

This research examines consumer responses to process and outcome failures in two hospitality settings, a hotel and a restaurant. Converging evidence from two experiments indicates that dissatisfaction with service failures reflects the joint influence of failure type and value orientation. Specifically, a face-conscious value that emphasizes a positive public self-image has an aggravating effect on dissatisfaction, and the effect is stronger for process failures. In contrast, a fate-submissive value that conduces fatalistic thinking has an attenuating effect on dissatisfaction, and the effect is stronger for outcome failures. These results have broad implications for hospitality research and practice, especially in the areas of service quality management and target marketing.     

Residential energy behaviour: does generation matter?

In this study we tested the relevance of the generational hypothesis, that is, whether the era in which household members grew up matters when understanding and predicting their behaviour, on a sample of 600 Swedish households. These households participated in a survey where they answered questions about their own energy‐related residential energy behaviour. The answers were analysed for differences between age groups, between different attitudes to environmental issues, between income levels and between dwelling types. The results showed that age was as good an indicator as the other parameters. In several areas, older households had a more energy‐efficient residential behaviour than younger ones. Examples are laundry practices and indoor heat regulation. According to the generational hypothesis, this finding implies higher energy use in the future. The study also shows that there is a broad scope for improving residential energy behaviour in Swedish society by implementing changes in laundry avoiding practices, dishwashing behaviour and indoor temperature regulation.     

Challenges in the education of the contemporary U.S. international manager

Failure rates of 30% for U.S. expatriate international managers relative to less than 10% for comparable Japanese and European international managers represent substantial costs to individuals, corporations, and U.S. global economic interests. The authors provide a profile of successful expatriate international managers and recommend four changes: (1) inclusion of international management development as a strategic U.S. corporate issue for global success; (2) alteration of current U.S. corporate selection procedures; (3) expanded implementation of rigorous leading edge international training programs; and (4) a renewed U.S. corporate-academic-government collaborative partnership to enhance international competitiveness.     

Labor‐Market Specialization within Same‐Sex and Difference‐Sex Couples

We use data from the 2000 decennial U.S. Census to compare differences in earnings, hours worked, and labor‐force participation between members of different household types, including same‐sex couples, different‐sex couples, and roommates. Both same‐sex and different‐sex couples exhibit some degree of household specialization, whereas roommates show little or no degree of specialization. Of all household types, married couples exhibit by far the highest degree of specialization with respect to labor‐market outcomes. With respect to differences in earnings and hours, gay male couples are more similar to married couples than lesbian or unmarried heterosexual couples are to married couples.     

Consumer behavior change at the base of the pyramid: Bridging the gap between for‐profit and social responsibility strategies

This longitudinal field experiment compares two different for‐profit market entry strategies with a philanthropic strategy in terms of how each influences consumer behavior in base‐of‐the‐pyramid communities. We analyze reactions to a water purification product offered at three price points (moderate discount, deep discount, and free) in rural Malawi. We find that those who paid the deeply discounted price remain more likely to re‐obtain and use the product than do those who paid the moderate price or who took it for free. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Federalism with Bicameralism

We analyse how bicameralism can affect national fiscal policies in a federal country when vertical and horizontal externalities interact. Conditions are provided to show when, at equilibrium, the two chambers agree or disagree on the choice of a national capital tax rate, depending on whether or not the pivotal voter in the two chambers is the same.     

Leisure Constraints for Adolescents in Cape Town,South Africa: A Qualitative Study

This study identified leisure constraints, constraints negotiation strategies, and their relative frequencies among 114 high school students from one under-resourced area of South Africa. Through focus group discussions, participants identified intrapersonal, interpersonal, structural, and sociocultural constraints to leisure, suggesting some degree of universality in this previously documented typology. Intrapersonal constraints were mentioned most often. Whereas participants readily identified ways to overcome interpersonal and structural constraints, strategies for overcoming intrapersonal and sociocultural constraints were not mentioned frequently, suggesting a potential need to help adolescents identify and employ these types of strategies.     

Maintaining Relationships: A Study of the Legal Industry

This article attempts to answer two questions, using Spain as a case study: do savings banks, and the regional banking system in general, have specific forms of activity which may be termed 'regionalising'?; and then, is the quantitative importance of the regional banking system sufficient to ensure that the effects of such behaviour upon the regional distribution of credit will be substantial? The evidence shows that in Spain these institutions have a strongly regionally-oriented character that has greatly contributed to financial convergence. The regional orientation has resulted in relatively low inter-regional differences in access to credit.