The Political Economy of Middle‐Income Traps: Is South Africa in a Long‐Run Growth Trap? The Path to “Bounded Populism”

The current literature on middle‐income traps has been dominated by economists who have relied on economic explanations mainly around stages of development and the structural transformation of economies. But there is an equally vigorous literature from political science which speaks to the political economy of transitions. We look at the dynamics of how economic modernisation triggers structural changes with winners and losers and how this is reflected in the polarisation of the political sphere amongst middle‐income countries. This paper asks the question of whether South Africa is an archetypical example of a country stuck in a trap and how this has affected the policy choices that it has made. South Africa needs to move up the value chain with a viable value proposition, and this requires a very different policy set and human capital plan.     

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Renegotiation in Public–Private Partnerships: An Incentive Mechanism Approach

Game theory is an important analytical tool for measuring problems caused by behaviors that deviate from contractual ethics. However, the PPP literature still does little to explore this research topic. This paper analyzes and improves the equilibrium conditions of a renegotiation model of PPPs by introducing the asymmetry of information in the contract. To achieve this goal, the Mechanism Design Theory is used to demonstrate how the correct tracking of the investor directly influences the payoffs of the renegotiation. The study concludes that the lack of incentive constraints in the bidding document, as an ex ante condition, does not provide sufficient information on investor management capability. In this way, this information is only revealed in the renegotiation phase. Consequently, this contract failure results in high political costs to the government due to excessive subsidies.     

Nonlinearities in the Brazilian Yield Curve

ABSTRACT

The article indicates the yield curve can be modeled using a continuous estimator as smooth transition regression, instead of traditional switch models, because bonds are traded continuously in the financial market. The results indicate that nonlinearity in the yield curve explains the pitfalls of monetary policy. The positive correlation between inflation and spread is consistent with a rise on uncertainty due to inflation risk or seems to indicate Brazilian Central Bank’s monetary policy credibility in the sample period. Therefore, if dependence on international capital exists, the Brazilian economic policy makers must monitor the movements in yield and analyze its feedback frequently in order to guide their plans and decisions.     

Multiples’ Valuation: The Selection of Cross-Border Comparable Firms

We studied whether mean industry multiples are similar in Brazil and in the United States. Using multilevel models (hierarchical linear model and additive crossed random-effects model), we concluded that there exists significant variability within firms from the same industry and significant variability between countries (Brazil and United States). The same tests were applied to firms grouped in clusters by similarity of economic fundamentals and we concluded that part of the variability shifts from (a) the variability within firms from the same industry and the variability between countries to (b) the variability between clusters, which is desirable in multiples’ valuation.     

A Probability of Revisitation Model: The Case of Winter Visits to the Grand Canyon

This paper finds that on average first-time visitors to the Grand Canyon are willing to travel significantly greater distances than repeat visitors. These findings are based upon a binary logit model of repeat visitations estimated from a recent sample of Grand Canyon visitors. This model expresses the probability of repeat visitation as a function of distance travelled and visitor demographic profiles. Included among the demographic characteristics are income, available leisure time, and the number of previous visits. An important managerial implication of this study - not only for the Grand Canyon but also for other tourist destinations - is the value of ‘probability of revisitation’ approach in identifying subtle market fragments. This opens the door to sophisticated marketing strategies that, in this case, cater to the separate needs and desires of repeat and first-time visitors to enhance revenue possibilities.     

Local Content Policy in the Brazilian Oil and Gas Sectoral System of Innovation

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this article is to discuss the development, goals, and format of local content public policy within the context of the Brazilian oil and gas sectoral system of innovation. The theoretical frame of reference for this article revolves around the concept of innovation systems, more specifically their sectoral focus as in Malerba (2002 Malerba , F. ( 2002 ). Sectoral systems of innovation and production . Research Policy , 31 , 247 – 264 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and 2004 Malerba , F. ( 2004 ). Sectoral systems of innovation: concepts, issues and analyses of six majors sectors in Europe . Cambridge , England : Cambridge University Press .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Norwegian local content policy was considered as a reference. This article concludes that this policy has not yet come to a consensus, presents regulatory weaknesses, does not have well-defined roles, and has little potential to generate innovations.     

Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan

The study of tourism demand is attracting more and more attention. Hence, it is important to understand the variables that affect tourism demand and to forecast the demand. Many studies have been conducted to analyze the demands in various countries. Recently, China has been expected to become one of the largest originators of outbound tourists in the world. Hence, it is interesting to explore what the variables are that affect the Mainland Chinese arrivals to Taiwan and to forecast its corresponding tourism demand. This study applies neural networks to select proper models, and then to forecast the demand.     

Capital requirements,risk-taking and welfare in a growing economy

Journal of Regulatory Economics - The effects of capital requirements on risk-taking and welfare are studied in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with banking, limited...