Antwort

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Einige Bemerkungen zur Theorie der Planwirtschaft

Ohne ZusammenfassungDie folgenden Ausführungen stellen in erweiterter Form den Vortrag dar, den ich am 17. Februar 1938 in der Nationalökonomischen Gesellschaft in Wien gehalten habe.     

An empirical investigation of the consumption based Capital Asset Pricing Model using a modified variance-ratio test

A chi-square statistic is constructed that compares variance ratios and mean simple returns from data with those implied by an asset pricing model. The statistic is applied to the Consumption based Capital Asset Pricing Model with time non-separable preferences. It favors habit persistence for annual data, time-separability for quarterly data, and durability for monthly data, respectively. Introduction of time non-separability yields only a marginal improvement. The power of the test is high when alternative hypotheses are formed by varying the relative risk aversion coefficient. It is lower for alternative hypotheses generated by varying the time non-separability parameter, especially for durability. The author would like to thank Craig Burnside, David DeJong, John Duffy, and Steve Husted for their comments on previous versions of the paper.     

Hölderian properties of partial sums of regression residuals

In this paper we investigate Hölder convergence of polygonal line process based on residuals of linear regression model. Bootstrap counterpart is also studied. Our results provide additional tools for testing epidemic type structural changes in regression models.     

Learning by investing

We test for learning among heterogeneous individuals who are engaged in bidding and who possess limited information about the auctioned assets. We use an extensive dataset taken from an auction through which state‐owned enterprises were privatized in the Czech Republic in 1993–94. To test for learning, we develop new measures of individual performance to accommodate the varying prices of assets available in six successive stages of bidding. We present evidence that learning took place among heterogeneous agents during a large‐scale multi‐stage auction that is unique in terms of its size, incentives and variation. The auction’s design, with multiple market periods, allowed agents to learn based on accumulated experience. As individuals had to pay a fee to participate, and as the potential gain was in the magnitude of several months’ salary, we conclude that large incentives were driving our results.     

Public opinion and terrorist acts

The paper examines support for terrorism in public opinion and the relationship with terrorist attacks. We link the 2007 PEW survey data on justification for suicide terror and opinions in 16 countries of the Middle East, Africa and Asia on nine regional powers, to the NCTC data on international terrorist acts between 2004 and 2008. We find that justification in public opinion for suicide terrorism increases terror attacks on people in countries that are unfavorably regarded. There is a robust positive relationship between the share of the population in a country that at the same time justifies suicide bombings and has an unfavorable opinion of another country, and terrorism originating from the former country.     

A methodology for cluster analysis of citation histories

Citations to all the papers (558) published from 1955 to 1964 by a multidisciplinary (natural sciences) research institute within a ‘scientific periphery’ were collected for the 11-year period after a 10-year lapse since the publication years. All the papers were grouped into 31 research topics, three of which had no such late citations at all. For the remaining 28 groups of papers three indicators were defined: ALPHA, the ratio of the number of papers with citations, to the number of all papers of the particular research topic, indicating thus an overall CITATION EFFICACY; BETA, the ratio of the sum of all citations, to the number of the cited papers, indicating CITATION INTENSITY, and GAMMA, expressing the CITATION LONGEVITY for a given research topic as the incidence (number) of cited papers (irrespective of the number of citations) within the 11-year citing period. In addition, three normalized transformations of the indicator BETA were checked. Two-dimensional (without ALPHA) and three dimensional (with ALPHA, GAMMA, and one of the BETA variants) graphical representations together with a pairwise correlation analysis served as preliminary guidance in the latter statistical analyses by (a) Ward's Hierarchical Cluster Analysis and (b) Polar Taxons Analysis. Both of them resulted in good agreement. Thus, the 28 research topics were found to belong to three clusters. Their composition varied slightly for the original BETA and its three normalized values. It was concluded that ALPHA is not a redundant but quite useful indicator, and that one of the normalized BETA-variants appears most suitable for this kind of studies. In the three-dimensional graphs the clusters may be related to scientific merit as judged in a composite way by all the three indicators. This is done with regard to the diagonal joining the indicators' maximal with their minimal values. The citation LONGEVITY (GAMMA) appears to be most important. Cluster stability tests showed fluctuations of few research topics, which was related to their specific features within the given research setting. It emerges on the whole that the research merit of this (peripheral) scientific production is determined neither by the journals status the papers were published in, nor by the authors' institutional status. Rather, it is the very scientific quality of individual papers within a given research topic that is decisive for the citation ‘survival’.