Corporate governance and firm performance in emerging markets: Evidence from Turkey

This is a study of the relationship between context, internal corporate governance and firm performance, looking at the case of Turkey, an exemplar of family capitalism. We found more concentrated ownership, often in the hands of families, led to firms performing better; concentrated ownership means that controlling families bear more of the risks of poor performance. Less predictably, given that the institutional environment is so well attuned to family ownership, we found that mechanisms that accord room for a greater range of voices and interests within and beyond families – larger boards and foreign ownership stakes – seem to also make for positive performance effects. We also noted that increase in cross ownership did not influence market performance, but was negatively associated with accounting performance. Conversely, we found that a higher proportion of family members on boards had no discernable effect on performance. Our findings provide further insights on the relationship between the type of institutions encountered in many emerging markets, internal corporate governance configurations and firm performance.     

Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

This paper seeks to identify evidence of regime-switching behaviour in the monetary policy response function and the variance of the shocks. It makes use of various specifications of a small open-economy Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that is applied to South African data from 1989 to 2014. While the in-sample statistics suggest that some of the regime-switching models may provide superior results, the out-of-sample statistics suggest that the inclusion of various forms of regime-switching does not significantly improve upon the forecasting performance of the model. The results also suggest that the central bank response function has been consistently applied over the sample period.     

Market Orientation,Strategy and Revenue Growth in the Turkish Hotel Industry

This empirical analysis of hotel properties in south-western Turkey draws on the market orientation, strategy, and capabilities literature to highlight the benefits of a differentiation strategy and customer-value focus for competitors in this industry. Relationship management and organizational resource management are key drivers of sales growth in this industry, and hotel operators facing high competitive intensity are particularly encouraged to develop these capabilities and to adopt a differentiation strategy instead of resorting to price cutting and other pricing and promotional tactics to grow revenues. Notable opportunities for future research include examining relationships between market orientation, customer satisfaction, and employee satisfaction in the Turkish hotel industry.     

Does inflation cause gold market price changes? evidence on the G7 countries from the tests of nonparametric quantile causality in mean and variance

This article utilizes the newly proposed nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to examine the predictability of mean and variance of changes in gold prices based on inflation for G7 countries. The causality-in-quantiles approach permits us to test for not only causality in mean but also causality in variance. We start our investigation by utilizing tests for nonlinearity. These tests identify nonlinearity, showing that the linear Granger causality tests are subject to misspecification error. Unlike tests of misspecified linear models, our nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests find causality in mean and variance from inflation to gold market price changes between the 0.20 quantile and the 0.70 quantile, implying that very low- and high-price changes in gold markets are not related to inflation. These changes should be related to other sources, such as financial shocks and exchange market shocks. We find support that gold serves as a hedge against inflation, but only in the mid-quantile ranges, i.e. quantiles from 0.20 to 0.70. Our results show that gold does not serve as a hedge against inflation during periods when gold market price changes are very low or very high, which are respectively quiet and highly volatile periods.     

Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance

This paper derives optimal forecast combinations based on stochastic dominance efficiency (SDE) analysis with differential forecast weights for different quantiles of forecast error distribution. For the optimal forecast combination, SDE will minimize the cumulative density functions of the levels of loss at different quantiles of the forecast error distribution by combining different time-series model-based forecasts. Using two exchange rate series on weekly data for the Japanese yen/US dollar and US dollar/Great Britain pound, we find that the optimal forecast combinations with SDE weights perform better than different forecast selection and combination methods for the majority of the cases at different quantiles of the error distribution. However, there are also some very few cases where some other forecast selection and combination model performs equally well at some quantiles of the forecast error distribution. Different forecasting period and quadratic loss function are used to obtain optimal forecast combinations, and results are robust to these choices. The out-of-sample performance of the SDE forecast combinations is also better than that of the other forecast selection and combination models we considered.     

Protectionist demands in globalization

Review of Economic Design - We construct a game theoretic model that offers to explain the increase in trade protectionism as a rational reaction of the voters to their increased concern that the...     

The resurrection of earlier imprints post mortem: Explaining the Turkish agricultural cooperative movement with an imprinting theory lens, 1888–1937

This study aims to extend the cooperative lifecycle theory, which builds on consecutive degeneration and regeneration of ideal cooperative values such as democracy, self-help, and solidarity by offering a new regenerative mechanism. In this respect, the study imports multilevel imprinting theory from the organizational ecology domain to explicate the punctuated evolutionary pattern of Turkish agricultural credit cooperatives, which displayed significantly different characteristics from Raiffeisen cooperatives that cooperative discourse in Türkiye used for a long as a benchmark. The archival research undertaken in the study asserts that the imprints of Ottoman Memleket Sandiks (OMS) have stamped agricultural credit cooperatives of the Republican era long after their erosion. The resurrection of imprints was enabled by Ziraat Bank, which acted as an intermediary organization and took over the remnants of OMSs. Our analyses also suggest that the State's polity and policy transformations culminate in selective activation of past imprints within the Ziraat Bank, which, in turn, shaped the Turkish agricultural cooperative field.     

Quid pro quo harassment,contracts and liability

This paper identifies two channels through which contracts induce performance and contain quid pro quo harassment: a disincentive effect raises the cost for harassers and a selection effect that attracts whistleblower types raises potential victims' resistance. An effective employer liability generates a negative relationship between wages and harassment risk. If liability is ineffective, however, employers can opt for low-wage contracts that induce high harassment and minimum internal complaints. In such environments, wages compensate exogenous harassment risks. Thus the wage-harassment risk equation can signal effectiveness of employer liability.     

Climate change and spatial agricultural development in Turkey

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of agricultural production in Turkey between 2004 and 2019. Our findings show that climate change has a pervasive impact on agricultural development. The empirical results show that the average temperature is negatively associated with agricultural land use, grain, and legume production. Moreover, regional variability analyses reveal the nonmonotonic relationships between climatic factors and agricultural output. Climate change hurts agricultural production in northern and central regions the most. This finding points out the ineffectiveness of one-size-fits-all-type policies for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change in topography with sizeable spatial dissimilarities. Overall, our results suggest that climate change will significantly threaten the evolution of agricultural activities that are critical for regional development. In addition, findings show that spatial spillovers and heterogeneity will be crucial for designing climate change policies for rural and agricultural development.     

EFFECTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary.