Analyst reputation and management earnings forecasts

Prior studies show that analysts with high reputation are influential in the market. This paper examines whether managers consider analyst reputation in shaping their voluntary disclosure strategy. Using Institutional Investor magazine’s All-American (AA) rankings as a proxy for analyst reputation, we find that the coverage of AA analysts is positively associated with the likelihood of quarterly management earnings forecasts (MEFs). We also find that AA analysts’ forecast optimism is more positively associated with the likelihood of MEFs than non-AA analysts’ forecast optimism when the firm is covered by AA analysts. Analyses based on AA analyst coverage changes and AA status changes confirm the relation between analyst reputation and MEFs. We further find that analyst reputation influences other MEF properties, such as forecast news, bias, and revisions, and that our results are robust to alternative measures of analyst reputation. Further analyses show that market reactions at quarterly earnings announcements are more positive (negative) when firms meet/beat (miss) AA analysts’ forecasts than when firms meet/beat (miss) non-AA analysts’ forecasts. Collectively, our findings suggest that managers strategically provide voluntary forecasts by taking into account the reputation of individual analysts following their firms.     

The innovation consequences of mandatory patent disclosures

We investigate the effect of patent disclosures on corporate innovation. Using the American Inventor's Protection Act (AIPA) as a shock that increased patent disclosures, we find an increase in innovation for firms whose rivals reveal more information after the AIPA and a decrease in innovation for firms whose own disclosures are divulged to competitors as a result of the law. These findings suggest patent disclosures generate both spillover benefits and proprietary costs. Our findings provide justification for patent disclosure requirements by demonstrating positive externalities: rivals' disclosures facilitate a firm's innovation. However, we also highlight that mandatory patent disclosures can impose proprietary costs on firms. These results broadly contribute to our understanding of the real effects of disclosure, such that forcing firms to share proprietary information can be privately costly but beneficial to other firms.     

Comparison of Internet and interview survey modes when estimating willingness to pay using choice experiments

With the increasing use of the Internet as a survey mode, questions of mode effects and how potential effects influence inferences arise. Using a choice experiment combined with mixed logit estimation, willingness-to-pays (WTPs) for attributes are compared between the Internet mode and the more traditional interview survey mode. The results suggest that there are differences in WTP between the two survey models for three of four attributes. Furthermore, WTPs obtained from the interview survey are larger than the WTPs obtained from the Internet survey, suggesting potential social desirability behaviour by the interview respondents. Internet surveys involving sensitive issues may be desirable because of potential social desirability behaviour.     

Economic and capital market antecedents of venture capital commitments (1960–2010)

Using vector autoregression technique, we examine the interrelation between venture capital flows, economic development, capital market fund-raising activities, and capital market valuation, based on annual data of the United States over the past half-century. We find that venture capital commitments appear to be correlated with GDP and capital market valuation. While capital market fund-raising activities (Initial Public Offerings and Seasoned Equity Offerings) are also correlated with venture capital flows, these effects are subsumed by GDP, indicating that the overall economy drives both venture capital flows and capital market financing activities. Analyses from impulse response functions suggest that shocks to GDP have a permanent effect on venture capital flows, while the impact of capital market valuation (Standard & Poor 500 returns) on venture capital flows is rather short lived. Overall, both economy-wide development and financial market fluctuations seem to impact venture capital flows.     

Many ways of qualitative contrast in probabilistic theories of causality

Hitchcock (Synthese 97:335–364, 1993) argues that the ternary probabilistic theory of causality meets two problems due to the problem of disjunctive factors, while arguing that the unanimity probabilistic theory of causality, which is founded on the binary contrast, does not meet them. Hitchcock also argues that only the ternary theory conveys the information about complex relations of causal relevance. In this paper, I show that Eells’ solution (Probabilistic causality, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1991), which is founded on the unanimity theory, meet the two problems. I also show that the unanimity theory too reveals complex relations of causal relevance. I conclude that the two probabilistic theories of causality carve up the same causal structure in two formally different and conceptually consistent ways. Hitchcock’s ternary theory inspires several major philosophers (Maslen, Causation and counterfactuals, pp. 341–357. MIT Press, Cambridge, 2004; Schaffer, Philos Rev 114, 297–328, 2005; Northcott, Phil Stud 139, 111–123, 2007; Hausman, The place of probability in science: In honor of Eelleys Eells (1953–2006), pp. 47–64, Springer, Dordrecht, 2010) who have recently developed the ternary theory or the quaternary theory. This paper leads them to reconsider the relation between the ternary theory and the binary theory.     

MNC practice transfer: institutional theory,strategic opportunities and subsidiary HR configuration

Human resource (HR) practice transfer is an important topic in the domain of strategic international human resource management (SIHRM). Previous research in practice transfer has emphasized the challenges arising from the institutional distance between the home and host countries. However, potential opportunities due to this distance have been largely overlooked. Shifting the focus away from looking at institutional distance as a constraint, we examine the possibilities of strategic opportunities that exist because of institutional distance. We argue multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries can exploit these opportunities to gain competitive advantage. Building upon SIHRM literature, institutional theory and the resource-based views, we propose a conceptual framework explaining how institutional environments present strategic opportunities. We argue that these strategic opportunities are most abundant in the case of moderate institutional distance between the two countries. Building upon the conceptualization of strategic opportunities, we propose a model of subsidiary HR configuration, and then we explain how an HR configuration could be a source of competitive advantage. Further, we examine the role of MNCs' overall SIHRM orientation in relation to the identification and exploitation of strategic opportunities.     

The Role of Manufacturing-specific Technology in Determining the Composition of Hours Worked in Korea

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of manufacturing-specific and neutral technological changes in explaining the dramatic shift in hours worked from the manufacturing toward the service sector. The finding is that manufacturing-specific technological changes are the main contributor to the shift in hours worked while neutral technological changes seem to play only a minor role in explaining it.     

Skill Accumulation in the Search Unemployment Model

ABSTRACT

I analyze general skill accumulation (training) and its financing among labor market entrants in a search unemployment equilibrium. Becker's general skill finance rule is modified for a search economy: although skill accumulation is associated with a hold-up problem, since it benefits future job vacancies which workers expect to be matched with, if vacancies direct their search to workers of different skill levels, workers internalize this externality. An extended model analyzes whether to accumulate skills through training or education. Small differences in the relative cost of acquiring education can lead to large differences in skill levels in the labor market.     

Sluggish Recovery from the Financial Crisis: Crowding-out Effect and Contagion

Abstract

The stimulus plans by the US Government after the financial crisis in 2008 may decrease private investment by means of a crowding-out effect. The US Federal Reserve utilized quantitative easing policies to maintain the interest rate as low as possible to minimize crowding-out. The 2008 financial crisis also affects other economies through contagion effects. This paper investigates the existence of the crowding-out effect and contagion effect after the crisis using Temin and Voth's models. The empirical results from vector autoregession show that there is a crowding-out effect in the US economy as well as a contagion effect of the crisis on the Korean and Japanese economies.     

ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ARMINGTON IMPORT ELASTICITIES FOR A REGIONAL CGE MODEL OF THE ILLINOIS ECONOMY

One of the main concerns associated with the development and use of regional CGE models is the determination of key parameter values, particularly substitution and other price elasticities. A common problem is the lack of appropriate regional data for econometric estimation. Consequently, it is important to identify key parameters that are likely to be important in determining quantitative results and then to prioritize these for estimation where appropriate data are available. In this paper, the focus is on the estimation of the regional trade (import) substitution parameters, which tend to be important in analysis for regional economies (given their openness to trade). Here, commodity import elasticities for the Illinois economy are estimated and tested in a single region CGE model of the Illinois economy. In our econometric estimation, we apply a model that takes account of market size and distance in estimating the substitutability between commodities produced in Illinois and other US states.