Applications of Fuzzy Regression in Actuarial Analysis

In this article, we propose several applications of fuzzy regression techniques for actuarial problems. Our main analysis is motivated, on the one hand, by the fact that several articles in the financial and actuarial literature suggest using fuzzy numbers to model interest rate uncertainty but do not explain how to quantify these rates with fuzzy numbers. Likewise, actuarial literature has recently focused some of its attention in analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR) because this is a key instrument for pricing insurance contracts. With these two ideas in mind, we show that fuzzy regression is suitable for adjusting the TSIR and discuss how to apply a fuzzy TSIR when pricing life insurance contracts and property‐liability policies. Finally, we reflect on other actuarial applications of fuzzy regression and develop with this technique the London Chain Ladder Method for obtaining Incurred But Not Reported Reserves.     

Regulation of the iberoatlantic sardine fishery

The basic aim of this paper is to use a case study to illustrate the way in which controls can achieve an optimum exploitation of marine resources. The specific fishery under study is the Iberoatlanti sardine fishery. A bioeconomic deterministic model for this fish resource is developed and applied. The most relevant results and estimates are showed. Finally, we present some economic policy recommendations for the fishery, as well as considerations for the application of the regulatory measures.I thank M. C. Gallastegui for all his help. I also thank the anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Debt and equity as optimal contracts

This paper shows the simultaneous optimally of debt and equity contracts in a principal-agent model. The agent (an entrepreneur) has an investment project but does not have the necessary funds to finance it. There is moral hazard in the model, generated by the dependence of the project's expected return on the (unobservable) agent's effort. Key to the optimality of these financial instruments is the nonassignable rent produced by the project and captured by the entrepreneur when the investment is successful.     

An Examination of the Quality of Jobs in the Call Center Industry

This paper examines jobs in the information society and the new economy, taking as its focus the call center industry. More specifically, the study analyzes the degree of variability of the quality of call center jobs. In order to achieve this objective, an index of job quality is generated, and an empirical analysis of the characteristics of jobs in call centers is carried out. This allows us to determine the level and variability of quality of jobs in this sector and to establish whether the reality of these jobs is as good as the forecasts for work in the new economy.      

Inequality and endogenous trade policy outcomes

An enduring puzzle in international economics is why trade interventions are biased in favor of import-competing rather than export sectors and therefore restrict trade. In this paper, we show that if the government's objective reflects a concern for inequality then trade policy generally exhibits an anti-trade bias. Importantly, under neutral assumptions, the mechanism that we analyze generates the anti-trade bias independently of whether factors are specific or mobile across sectors. The mechanism also generates an anti-trade bias between large countries even after they sign reciprocal trade agreements that eliminate any terms-of-trade motivation for the use of trade protection.     

Giorgio Riello. A Foot in the Past: Consumers, Producers and Footwear in the Long Eighteenth Century

Through a case study of London's footwear trades, Giorgio Rielloventures to establish the interrelationship of consumption,retailing, and production in the (very) long eighteenth century.Documenting continuity and change from the 1650s to the 1890s,he addresses such disparate themes as fashion history, consumerism,retailing, urban and architectural history, credit and capital,craft organization, and industrialization. Riello succeeds admirablyin demonstrating that productive change is inextricably relatedto both consumption and distribution. And, he makes compellingclaims for     

Income Inequality and Health: Do the Equivalence Scales Matter?

The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between income inequality and health in the European Union countries using new data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). The heterogeneity of the households has been approached using different equivalence scales. A variety of different model specifications were tried using different dependent variables such as life expectancy at birth and child mortality. The results give support to the influence of income inequality on health indicators using aggregate data and panel techniques, and show the sensitivity of the Gini index to the equivalence scale considered.     

广州市民休闲生活的调查与研究

本文通过对广州市民的实地问卷调查，在分析广州市民构成的基础上，着重研究：广州市民休闲生活状况和对休闲生活的评价及需求情况。市民对休闲生活的评价与需求，一方面，调查市民对目前休闲生活的满意度并分析影响其休闲生活质量的主要原因；另一方面，了解市民对自身未来的休闲方式、休闲空间的意向，以及对政府和社会在城市休闲建设方面所持的期望与建议。     

Processes with volatility-induced stationarity: an application for interest rates

In this paper we propose a refinement of the existing definition of volatility-induced stationarity that allows us to distinguish between processes with drift and diffusion induced stationarity and processes with pure volatility-induced stationarity. We also propose a classification of stationary processes with volatility-induced stationarity according to the volatility that is needed to inject stationarity. Processes with volatility-induced stationarity are potentially applicable to interest rate time-series since, as has been acknowledged, mean-reversion effects occur mainly in periods of high volatility. As such, we provide evidence that the logarithm of the Fed funds rate can be modelled as a local martingale with volatility-induced stationarity.     

Efficiency and Technical Change in Intertemporal Intersectoral DEA

A new procedure for the measurement of efficiency and technical change is presented, using DEA with three-dimension data (box data), pooling over sectors, regions and time. Until now, when pooling the data in panel applications it has been assumed that technology remained unchanged, so productivity change was entirely attributed to technical efficiency change. However, patterns of technology change and the decomposition into efficiency and technical change elements can be accomplished by means of restrictions on the general structure of the technology indexes. Under the assumption of non-regressive technical change, upper and lower bounds for efficiency and technical change are obtained. The new methodology is illustrated in an analysis of productivity growth in 13 manufacturing sectors in the Spanish regions from 1980 to 1992.