A note on the Robust Trend and ARARMA methodologies used in the M3 Competition

This brief note describes two of the forecasting methods used in the M3 Competition, Robust Trend and ARARMA. The origins of these methods are very different. Robust Trend was introduced to model the special features of some telecommunications time series. It was subsequently found to be competitive with Holt’s linear model for the more varied set of time series used in the M1 Competition. The ARARMA methodology was proposed by Parzen as a general time series modelling procedure, and can be thought of as an alternative to the ARIMA methodology of Box and Jenkins. This method was used in the M1 Competition and achieved the lowest mean absolute percentage error for longer forecasting horizons. These methods will be described in more detail and some comments on their use in the M3 Competition conclude this note.     

Reputation gaps and the performance of service organizations

Links between the reputation of organizations and their financial performance are intuitively attractive to assume, but often difficult to demonstrate convincingly. Gaps between employee and customer perceptions of corporate reputation have traditionally been associated with poor performance. In the context of service business and applying assimilation‐contrast theory, we hypothesize that the nature of such gaps will, in reality, have a differential effect on future revenue depending on the size and valence of the gap. The effects of small gaps should be assimilated by customers, but larger ones have a greater potential of creating a contrast effect resulting in significant increases or decreases in subsequent sales. In businesses where employees have a more positive view of the company reputation than customers, we hypothesize a growth in future sales, and where they have a relatively more negative view, a decline. We test the effects of what we label as reputation gaps in 56 business units drawn from nine service organizations and confirm our hypotheses. Among the implications of our findings are that managing reputation by elevating employee perceptions of a company's reputation above those perceived by its customers holds the potential to enhance future sales. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inward investment, industry concentration and the speed of adjustment

Inward Investment, Industry Concentration and the Speed of Adjustment. — The paper develops a model of concentration, based on the standard literature of concentration determination, which is then estimated using a frontier approach within a panel framework. Such a model provides an estimate of the lower bound of concentration in the industry, based on observed industry level characteristics. The paper then develops a model of concentration change, which shows that foreign penetration acts to reduce concentration levels, and also acts to increase the rate at which the industry moves towards this equilibrium. Finally, the importance of this deviation, in terms of explaining foreign penetration is explored.     

Time-consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and a balanced government budget

Abstract .  This paper analyzes optimal, time consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and with a balanced government budget. When tax revenue is used for publicly provided consumption or lump-sum transfers, leisure would be higher than its social optimum. Pareto optimal taxation requires taxing capital income more heavily than labour income and subsidizing investment at the same rate of the tax. Also, it requires either subsidizing labour at the same rate as a consumption tax or subsidizing consumption at the same rate as a labour income tax, and hence it is not a practical guide to policy. Further, a consumption tax, or equivalently a uniform income tax with investment subsidies at the same rate, can be improved on by taxing capital income more heavily than labour income.     

Research collaboration and behavioural additionality: A New Zealand case study

Generating the greatest benefit from public research programmes is a major aim for industry managers and policy administrators alike. However, how to measure whether benefit has occurred createsf a considerable dilemma for managers and policy-makers. One approach centres upon the concept of 'additionality' or 'what difference the policy has made'. Traditional 'input additionality' measures of subsequent research and development activity, for example, neither incorporate all impacts nor give adequate signals about adequate signals about aspects of 'output additionality', such as the impact on increased competitiveness at the level of the firm, or national competitiveness, the ultimate goal for the majority of research policies. An intermediate form of impact, 'behavioural additionality', centred upon changes in a firm's subsequent managerial behaviour, is considered to provide an alternative, yet compelling perspective on the impact of public support on the conduct of research. This study outlines empirical eveidence found for the various forms of additionality in a New Zealand collaborative research programme. It discusses how managers and policy administrators can exploit the occrrence of behavioural additionality to maximize the impact of a research policy, on the basis that modified behaviour is likely to strengthen a policy' latent abilityto influence the creation of output additionality. In such circumstances, the study suggests that managers and policy-makers should be identifying those interventions that lead to sustained improvements in mangerial practice, and in competitiveness, and should be managing their diffusion within firms and throughout industries.     

Macro Determinants of FDI Inflows to Japan: An Analysis of Source Country Characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis‐specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market‐seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan.     

Planning a mature economy in the USSR

Conclusion Few of the techniques of planning we have now been considering were available to the Soviet economist during the period of intensive industrialisation; those which were available were worked out only in elementary form. In any case, the gap between the goals of the politicians and the assumptions of the economists was so great that little dialogue was possible. The politicians, and the politically-minded economists, undertook the elaboration of their own system of planning and their own ruleof-thumb methods of quantifying their goals to make them operational. In doing this, they acquired a rich fund of valuable experience about the problems of development through central planning; the lessons from this experience, both successful and unsuccessful, could save resources in other economies where central planning is being used for development. Unfortunately, it is information about formal mechanisms for planning and financial control which has until now tended to be communicated from the Eastern bloc to the developing countries, rather than a realistic account of problems and achievements. For the developing countries, the further question exists: now that the new techniques for planning are available, can they be coupled with planning for a high rate of growth in conditions of rapid social change? If so, some of the successes of Soviet-type central planning may be achieved at less cost.For previous articles in this series, see Economics of Planning, Vol. 5, 1965, No. 1–2, pp. 74–86, Vol. 6, 1966, No. 1, pp. 53–67.