Methods for estimating the population contribution to environmental change.

"This paper introduces general methods for quantitative analysis of the role of population in environmental change. The approach is applicable over a wide range of environmental issues, and arbitrary regions and time periods. First, a single region is considered, appropriate formulae derived, and the limitations to quantitative approaches discussed. The approach is contrasted to earlier formulations, and shown to avoid weaknesses in a common approximation. Next, the analysis is extended to the multiple region problem. An apparent paradox in aggregating regional estimates is illuminated, and the risk of misleading results is underscored. The methods are applied to the problem of climate change with two case studies, an historical period and a future scenario, used to illustrate the results. The contribution of change in population to change in green house gas emissions is shown to be significant, but not dominant in both industrialized and developing regions."     

Maximizing the potential of your systems

In the last two decades, manufacturing businesses throughout the United States have learned that an important factor affecting the productivity of their manufacturing systems when implementing manufacturing resource planning is the way they approach the implementation itself. Eighty percent of an implementation effort needs to be devoted to preparing people in the organization to use the system and only 20 percent should be devoted to purchasing the system.     

Patterns of age and coverage errors in Tropical African surveys

The concept of calculating averages of African age distributions is developed in an attempt to distinguish the effect of age and coverage errors in demographic surveys in Tropical Africa from real fluctuations in the age structure. The concept is also used to discern different patterns of age errors and omissions and to indicate the extent of these errors in African age data. The method described is applied to data from 50 surveys undertaken in Tropical Africa between 1950 and 1973.     

A note on the equality of distribution of child mortality: Java-Bali, 1950-1976

Infant mortality is a widely recognized social indicator that is a useful index of the relative socioeconomic condition of subgroups of the population of a developing country. In developed countries, a more appropriate indicator of mortality is the proportion of babies who die before they reach their 5th birthday. 3 birth cohorts are identified from data provided by the Indonesian Fertility Survey conducted in Java and Bali in 1976 in order to examine the trend in mortality: births occurring 15 or more years before the survey, 10-14 years before the survey, and 5-9 years before the survey. 4 characteristics of parents related to education, occupation and urban vs. rural residence are used to analyze child mortality trends. A table shows the estimates for various combinations of these characteristics. Child mortality has decreased, but more importantly, it has decreased most for parents on the low end of the socioeconomic scale. Either parent having secondary education appears to be the key factor in the experience of low child mortality, although as more parents achieve secondary education, another factor may emerge as more important.     

THE PLACE OF MANAGERS IN INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACY

The discussion of industrial democracy in Britain has exploded in the last few years, but the result has been to write an agenda which has still to be worked through, not to reveal a consensus which can be written into action at once.