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101.
This article examines the external shocks and subsequent adjustment processes in the Soviet Union, China, and Hungary during 1974–76, 1979–81, and 1984–87. It compares the experiences of the three socialist countries with regard to external shocks to those of inward-and outward-oriented groups of newly industrializing countries (NICs). In contrast to the NICs, terms of trade effects were of secondary magnitude to export demand effects of external shocks in the three socialist countries during the first two periods. The oil-exporting Soviet Union had beneficial terms of trade effects during the first two periods, with unfavorable effects coming only in the third period. The adjustment responses to the external shocks varied greatly in the Soviet Union from the other two reform-oriented socialist countries and from both groups of NICs. It is interesting to note that the types of responses in the Soviet Union were quite opposite to that one observes for market economies. However, reform-oriented China and Hungary seemed to have response patterns similar to those of market economies, though China's response was similar to the outward-oriented NICs, while Hungary's was similar to the inward-oriented NICs.The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees, as well as Robert Dernberger, Albert Fishlow, Gregory Grossman, Chung Lee, Michael Plummer, Laura Tyson, and Benjamin Ward, for useful comments on this paper. Research in preparing this study was partly supported by a grant from the Institute of International Studies and Center for Slavic and East European Studies of the University of California, Berkeley. 相似文献
102.
The multiple objectives of perishable product inventory management are examined in this paper. These objectives include: (1) satisfying demand by carrying sufficient inventories, (2) holding down inventory carrying costs, (3) keeping the amount of product spoilage (outdating) at an acceptable level, and (4) maintaining quality by using the product while it is still fresh, and (5) keeping the cost of rotation low. Some of the above objectives are in conflict. Thus, certain redistribution policies may help attain one or more of these objectives to a greater extent. Redistribution involves the transfer of the product from outlets where demand is low to outlets where demand is high. A goal programming model for solving redistribution problems is presented. An example is provided and sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine when redistribution is advantageous. Applicability of the model is discussed. 相似文献
103.
We present general results for finding or boundingt
maxB
, the maximum number of arbitrary whole blocks of observations which can be removed from a block design, and still leave all of the elementary treatment contrasts estimable. The block sizes may be larger than the number of treatments. The results are applied to BBDs, reinforced BIBDs and BBDs, BTIBDs, and a series of variance balanced incomplete block designs with two block sizes. Also given for most of these designs, are results fort
max, the maximum number of arbitrary, scattered observations that can become unavailable, and still leave all of the elementary treatment contrasts estimable.The work was undertaken while Dr. Whittinghill was visiting Ohio State University, and supported by a grant from the Natural Sciences Division, Colby College, Waterville, Maine. 相似文献
104.
The problem of comparing the precisions of two instruments using repeated measurements can be cast as an extension of the Pitman-Morgan problem of testing equality of variances of a bivariate normal distribution. Hawkins (1981) decomposes the hypothesis of equal variances in this model into two subhypotheses for which simple tests exist. For the overall hypothesis he proposes to combine the tests of the subhypotheses using Fisher's method and empirically compares the component tests and their combination with the likelihood ratio test. In this paper an attempt is made to resolve some discrepancies and puzzling conclusions in Hawkins's study and to propose simple modifications.
The new tests are compared to the tests discussed by Hawkins and to each other both in terms of the finite sample power (estimated by Monte Carlo simulation) and theoretically in terms of asymptotic relative efficiencies. 相似文献
The new tests are compared to the tests discussed by Hawkins and to each other both in terms of the finite sample power (estimated by Monte Carlo simulation) and theoretically in terms of asymptotic relative efficiencies. 相似文献
105.
106.
107.
A procedure is given for the construction of a monotone estimator that dominates a given estimator for a class of discrete distributions with monotone likelihood ratio. This procedure is applied to some empirical Bayes estimators. Monte Carlo results are given that demonstrate the usefulness of monotonizing. 相似文献
108.
Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Abstract. While it is well known that demand elasticities calculated at the macro level will in general differ from those calculated at the micro level because of aggregation effects, there remain the questions of how large the effects are and how they vary with the degree of inequality in the income distribution. We explore these questions with models based on a quadratic version of the Almost Ideal Demand System. We investigate the elasticity differences theoretically and then calibrate the models and generate numerical results, using income data for seven countries with widely different distributions. The aggregation effects are found generally to be rather small, even with highly unequal income distributions. 相似文献
109.
This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources. 相似文献
110.
Mihai C. Botez 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1977,10(1):61-77
On the simple model of a (univariate) random process some general problems of “random logic” are discussed. New random approaches to explorative, normative and systematic (normex) forecasting are developed, and some applications are suggested. 相似文献