Boom,slump, sudden stops,recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro

Over the past 20 years, Portugal has gone through a boom, a slump, a sudden stop, and now a recovery. Unemployment has decreased, but remains high, and output is still far below potential. Competitiveness has improved, but more is needed to keep the current account in check as the economy recovers. Private and public debt are high, both legacies of the boom, the slump and the sudden stop. Productivity growth remains low. Because of high debt and low growth, the recovery remains fragile. We review the history and the main mechanisms at work. We then review a number of policy options, from fiscal consolidation to fiscal expansion, cleaning up of non-performing loans, labor market reforms, product market reforms, and euro exit. We argue that at this point, the main focus of macroeconomic policy should be twofold. The first is the treatment of non-performing loans, the second is product market reforms and reforms aimed at increasing micro-flexibility in the labor market. Symmetrically, we also argue that at this point, some policies would be undesirable, among them faster fiscal consolidation, measures aimed at decreasing nominal wages and prices, and euro exit.     

Ownership of individual retirement accounts – an empirical analysis based on SHARE

This paper examines the household retirement saving decisions in what concerns to the ownership of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) in eight European Union (EU) countries. IRAs are more and more seen as an alternative to public pension benefits, which are decreasing. Therefore, understanding the enrolment in IRAs, both the socio-economic factors and over time, is most important. Detailed empirical analysis of the factors that might influence the ownership of IRAs is presented based on Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), using data from Wave 2 (2006–2007) and Wave 4 (2010–2011). Further, to analyse the impact of legal retirement age in the ownership of IRAs, two subsamples are considered: people aged between 50 and 64 years old (50–64 years) and people aged 65 or over (≥ 65 years). The results suggest that age, years of education, income and ownership of dwelling influence positively and significantly household saving, while number of children, marital status and risk aversion have a negative effect. Marital status and income are not statistically significant for retired people. Policy implications are derived.     

Celso Furtado and the Myth of Economic Development: Rethinking Development from Exile

ABSTRACT

This article introduces two previously unpublished working papers by the Brazilian economist Celso Furtado (1920–2004). Following a brief outline of his life and ideas, the arguments in the two papers are examined, taking into account their context and place in Furtado’s evolving body of work. These two papers represent a crucial turning point in Furtado’s thinking, highlighting his critical perspective on (under)development and laying the basis for four books that he would publish in rapid sequence. We stress Furtado’s growing scepticism with the prospects for international development and global convergence, and his attempt to reimagine the meaning of development and the potential paths to development by peripheral countries. Furtado’s approach to global capitalism in these two papers shed an even more critical light on its structure and evolution than his better-known works from the 1950s. Finally, the contemporary relevance of his ideas is illustrated by reference to their relationship with the current heterodox literature.     

Exports,productivity and innovation: new firm level empirical evidence

This article examines the determinants of Portuguese exports, applying data from 277 manufacturing firms for the period 2006–2010. In 2010, these firms accounted for about 47% of total Portugal’s exports. Both the static and dynamic results of the estimated models confirm the positive influence of productivity on variations in exports. The dynamic estimations also suggest that exports in the previous period hold a positive effect on contemporaneous exports, confirming the Roberts and Tybout (1997) sunk cost hypothesis for exports. In the dynamic analysis, the labour costs and the size of the firm do not have a statistically significant effect on Portuguese exports with the findings also pointing to increased expenditure on research and development (R&D) generating no statistically significant effect on exports. The lagged R&D expenditure was also insignificant in explaining the change of Portuguese exports. Thus, these results suggest that applying a product or process innovation measure returns better results than indirect measures such as R&D expenditure.     

Long-term bank balance sheet management: Estimation and simulation of risk-factors

We propose a dynamic framework which encompasses the main risks in balance sheets of banks in an integrated fashion. Our contributions are fourfold: (1) solving a simple one-period model that describes the optimal bank policy under credit risk; (2) estimating the long-term stochastic processes underlying the risk factors in the balance sheet, taking into account the credit and interest rate cycles; (3) simulating several scenarios for interest rates and charge-offs; and (4) describing the equations that govern the evolution of the balance sheet in the long run. The models that we use address momentum and the interaction between different rates. Our results enable simulation of bank balance sheets over time given a bank’s lending strategy and provides a basis for an optimization model to determine bank asset–liability management strategy endogenously.     

High-speed rail transport valuation

In this paper, the optimal timing for investing in high-speed rail projects under uncertainty in relation to the utility provided to railway users was investigated. To accomplish this, a continuous time real options analysis framework using a stochastic demand model was developed to determine the optimal time to invest. Uncertainty upon investment expenditures was also added in an extended framework. The value of the option to defer and the investment opportunity value were also assessed.     

Changing returns to education in Portugal during the 1980s and early 1990s: OLS and quantile regression estimators

This paper examines the evolution of the returns to education in Portugal over the 1980s and early 1990s. The main findings indicate that the returns to education have increased, particularly after joining the European Union in 1986. Since this occurred along with an increase in the level of education within the labour force, the process is most likely demand driven. The results also indicate that modelling on average (i.e. OLS) misses important features of the wage structure. Quantile regression (QR) analysis reveals that the effect of education is not constant across the conditional wage distribution. They are higher for those at higher quantiles in the conditional wage distribution. Wage inequality expanded in Portugal over the 1980s and the returns to education had an important role in this process.     

Regional mobility in the European Union

Regional mobility in the spatial distribution of per capita income in the European Union is examined over the period 1977 to 1999. The methodology used to investigate this issue combines a series of measures taken from the literature devoted to the dynamic study of personal income distribution with a non-parametric analysis. The results show limited mobility in the distribution considered, and a decline in mobility over time. The empirical evidence presented indicates, moreover, that mobility patterns vary as a function of regional development levels. Additionally, the analysis carried out investigates the role played in explaining intra-distribution mobility by variables such as per capita income, population density, per capita expenditure in investment, market potential, and the share in total employment of agriculture, advanced services and non-market services.     

Linkages in international stock markets: evidence from a classification procedure

In this article, we propose a new approach to evaluate the predictable components in stock indices using a boosting-based classification technique, and we use this method to examine causality among the three main stock market indices in the world during periods of large positive and negative price changes. The empirical evidence seems to indicate that the Standard & Poors 500 index contains incremental information that is not present in either the FTSE 100 index (Financial Times Stock Exchange Index) or the Nikkei 225 index, and that could be used to enhance the predictability of the large positive and negative returns in the three main stock market indices in the world. This in turn would suggest a causality relationship running from the Standard & Poors 500 index to both the FTSE 100 and the Nikkei 225 indices.     

Rent sharing before and after the wage bill

Many biases plague the analysis of whether employers share rents with their employees, unlike what is predicted by the competitive labour market model. Using a Portuguese matched employer-employee panel, this article is one of the first to address these biases in three complementary ways: (1) Controlling directly for the fact that firms that share more rents will, ceteris paribus, have lower net-of-wages profits. (2) Instrumenting profits via interactions between the exchange rate and the share of exports in firm's total sales. (3) Considering firm or firm/worker spell fixed effects and highlighting the role of downward wage rigidity. These approaches clarify conflicting findings in the literature and result, in our preferred specifications, in significant evidence of rent sharing (a Lester range of pay dispersion of 56%), also shown to be robust to a number of competitive interpretations.