An analysis of Japanese earnings forecast revisions with application to seasoned equity offerings

Using the bootstrap method, we explore the characteristics of revisions in Japanese earnings forecast data. We find that forecast revisions exhibit a downward trend over time as the actual earnings announcement date approaches, and are serially correlated with three significant lags. Using these characteristics we develop a model to estimate abnormal forecast revisions, and illustrate the model's use with a sample of Japanese companies announcing seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). In contrast to results obtained by studies using American data, our findings indicate significant positive upward revisions when Japanese firms announce an SEO.     

Disentangling the drivers of renewable energy investments: The role of behavioral factors

The scope of this study is to investigate the main determinants of renewable energy investments in Greece. For this reason, we build an appropriate framework to infer the decision‐making process in the renewable energy sources (RES). The main drivers are then categorized under two groups as economic, and behavioral ones. In the next stage, we rely on binomial (logit and probit) and quantile regression analysis to estimate the impact of these factors on investment decisions towards RES. Our findings indicate that investors who gain better access to knowledge and exhibit a more positive attitude towards the contribution of artificial intelligence (AI) on the RES industry have a higher share of renewables in their portfolio. We argue that these investors are willing to invest a higher amount in the RES industry today. At the same time, quantile regression models illustrate that this relationship is nonmonotonic (i.e., inverted U shaped curve), arguing that positive attitudes towards the contribution of behavioral factors on RES are not adequate to encourage investments after crossing a certain point (threshold). Based on the empirical findings, we argue that the message to policymakers and government officials is to promote a faster penetration of low carbon technologies to achieve sustainable economic and social growth.     

Keynes' theory of money and his attack on the classical model

This paper centers on Keynes' theory of money and his attack on the classical model. Keynes criticized the self-correcting model of the British orthodoxy along two separate lines. In the first, in which Keynes' theory of money was crucial, he took the institutional variables as given and examined the functional relationships. Keynes' burden was to undermine what he termed the "classical dichotomy," where money was a veil, playing no role in determining output and employment. Two key features of the orthodox model were loanable funds and quantity theories, and Keynes' theory of money emerged from the rejection of these theories. The key to his attack on the classical dichotomy was the speculative demand for money, which he presented as an indirect, unstable function of the interest rate. Hence, Keynes linked money demand to the interest rate. The interest rate was thus determined by monetary variables rather than real factors, contrary to British orthodox opinion. Keynes then demonstrated that intended investment and saving need not be equal at a full employment equilibrium.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Fiftieth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 15–18, 2000, Charleston, South Carolina. The authors are grateful to participants for their helpful suggestions. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

Optimal design of trade institutions

We model an economy with social institutions that facilitate trade and induce three types of costs: establishment costs, access costs, and use costs. Use costs are specific transaction costs related to the use of these trade institutions. We assume that a trade institution is economically completely determined by the costs it imposes and by the effects on the trades it facilitates. We extend the Pareto efficiency concept to include various modes of organization of social institutions: the costs and benefits of these organizations are expressed in the trades they facilitate.Within this setting we discuss a valuation equilibrium concept, in which all agents use a common conjectural price system that assigns to every trade institution the price vector that would prevail under it. This feature of the equilibrium is important in securing the second welfare theorem, and is new to the analysis of economies with costly trade. Since the use costs can be nonlinear, there are non-convexities that prevent the second welfare theorem from obtaining in a finite economy, but we show it for large economies.Received: 3 April 2002, Accepted: 30 April 2003, JEL Classification: D59, D70, H49Robert P. Gilles: donewhile visiting the Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands. Financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), grant B46-390, is gratefully acknowledged.Dimitrios Diamantaras: Part of this research wasSupport from Temple University via a Fuller research fellowship is gratefully acknowledged.The authors would like to thank Suzanne Scotchmer, Andreu Mas-Colell, Marcus Berliant, Shlomo Weber, Hans Haller, Dhanajay Gokhale, Julian Manning, and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and discussions of previous drafts of this paper. A previous version of this paper was circulated as Equilibria of economies with costly trade.     

Preliminary test estimators of the parameters of simple linear model with measurement error

In this paper, we discuss the properties of preliminary test estimators (PTE) of the parameters of simple linear model with measurement error (ME model) when the slope of the linear model is suspected to be zero. Expressions of the bias, MSE and efficiencies are obtained under conditional as well as unconditional situations with known reliability coefficient. Conditional model results are compared to the standard model without measurement error. We also provide the unconditional model analysis in finite samples. Asymptotic theory under local alternatives is developed when the variance of measurement error or the ratio of the variance of the model error relative to the variance of the measurement error is known. Asymptotic expressions of bias and MSE of the estimators along with their efficiencies are obtained. In every case, it is shown that the measurement error tend to increase the variability of the estimators compared to the estimators without measurement error. Graphs and tables are provided to see these results and to determine optimum level of significance for minimum guaranteed efficiency. Received October 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  A. K. Md. E. Saleh is a Distinguished Research Professor and H. M. Kim is a Ph.D. candidate in the School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa. Acknowledgment. The authors gratefully acknowledge the constructive suggestion of the referees to improve the paper. The research is supported by NSERC grant A3088.     

Multiple Imputation in Multivariate Problems When the Imputation and Analysis Models Differ

Bayesian multiple imputation (MI) has become a highly useful paradigm for handling missing values in many settings. In this paper, I compare Bayesian MI with other methods – maximum likelihood, in particular—and point out some of its unique features. One key aspect of MI, the separation of the imputation phase from the analysis phase, can be advantageous in settings where the models underlying the two phases do not agree.     

基于规模和位序差异的陕西入境旅游研究

为科学、准确研究陕西入境旅游发展的区域差异,文章借鉴研究区域经济规模和位序差异的成熟方法,选取2001--2010年国家和陕西省统计年鉴中陕西省7个重点城市的相关数据（2003年由于非典原因除外）,对陕西入境旅游的区域差异进行了研究。发现陕西入境旅游业发展空间差异较大,但有逐渐缩小的趋势,7个重点城市入境旅游发展不平衡且不平衡格局相对稳定等问题。在此基础上,分析了影响陕西入境旅游规模位序差异化的原因。     

政治技能对职场排斥的影响与作用机制研究

职场排斥在组织中广泛存在,其破坏性日益引起学界的关注。文章以华北地区22家企业262名员工为样本,通过多元回归统计分析,探讨政治技能对职场排斥的影响及作用机制。结果表明,政治技能对职场排斥有负向影响,对职场友谊有正向影响。说明政治技能有助于减少职场排斥,增强职场友谊;职场友谊在政治技能与职场排斥之间具有中介作用;组织公平感负向调节政治技能与职场排斥之间的关系。