Using survey data to test market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets

The paper uses cointegration methods to test the market efficiency hypothesis (MEH) in the foreign exchange markets. Four exchange rates are considered-all relative to the US dollar: BP, DM, SF and JY. Survey data on expectations are used to see whether the violation of the MEH is due to expectational errors or risk premia. The results differ for the one-week ahead and the one-month ahead forecasts. With the weekly data we conclude that it is risk premia, and with the monthly data it is both expectational errors and risk premia that account for the violation of the MEH. Given the volatility of the exchange markets, it appears that forecasts over an extended period fail tests of rationality, but one-week ahead forecasts do not fail such tests.     

逆合成孔径雷达图象的旁瓣清除技术

<正> 随着改革开放的扩大和深入,我国以吸收利用外资为重点的三资企业发展迅速。到1992年一季度,共批准外商投资企业32000多家,吸收外资230亿美元,年递增率达30％以上。1992年,全国合资企业出口创汇可望达到100亿美元。三资企业不仅发展速度比较快,而且走势也在发生新的变化。总结分析外商投资走势,引导三资企业向高新层次递进,对于加大我国开放力度,促进外向型经济的良性发展,是十分必要的。     

支持物流系统的智能化方向

介绍了ＣＡＬＳ在物流领域的应用前景，论述了物流技术发展及其智能化方向的理想，概念等有关问题，最后介绍了假想物流系统技术的概念和发展及其应用的意义。     

The Fiction of Neutral Inflation

Though less frequent with the years, intermittent calls for 'reflation' to stimulate the economy can occasionally still be heard from Keynesian economists and politicians. Eli Schwartz, Professor of Economics at Leghigh University, Pennsylvania, examines the effects of inflation, anticipated and unanticipated, on participants in the economy. Professor Schwartz argues that, in spite of the short-term political benefits, the longer-term costs are so high that less myopic politicians may perceive the electoral advantages in tackling inflation.     

A macroeconomic two-country model with price-discriminating monopolists

I am indebted to J. Frijns, R. de Groof, S. Kuipers, F. van der Ploeg, V. Okker, A. van Schaik and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer of course applies.