Decision making on pension schemes under rational expectations

In this paper the formation of expectations during decision making processes on pension schemes is the main focus. An overlapping generations model is used where politicians control the tax-transfer system and the young determine savings. No generation of decision makers is committed to previous decisions. It appears that the outcome in the stationary state depends on the efficiency of the tax-transfer system compared with savings and on the preferences of politicians relative to young individuals with respect to the division of endowments between young-age and old-age consumption. One of the main conclusions is that if the parameters of the system are constant the stationary state enters within a finite time interval. So, if the system is initially outside the stationary state, the decision makers can calculate the path of taxes and savings towards the stationary state. This feature is also used to determine the effects of a demographic change.Comments from Dieter Bös, Fons Groot, Lex Meijdam, Willem Thorbecke, and David Wildasin are gratefully acknowledged. All remaining errors are, of course, ours.     

Boundedness of economic variables and Olech's theorem

On the basis of Olech's theorem we derive conditions on which any solution path starting from an arbitrary initial point in a two-dimensional bounded region ultimately converges to a unique equilibrium point without escaping from the region during a transition period. Then, using the result, we render one proposition more exact from the economic point of view.I would like to thank two anonymous referees for valuable comments and advices. Remaining errors are, of course, wholly due to myself.     

中国国际关系学术期刊:回顾与评价

作者对中国国际关系学术期刊进行了回顾和评价。通过对国内六种期刊评价指标的分析,得到两个结论:一是中国国际关系学术期刊的整体水平逐年提升且进步明显;二是中国国际关系学术期刊总体呈现越来越规范的特点。这其中,同行评议审稿等规范化制度的引入对于改善期刊质量起到了关键的作用。作者以《世界经济与政治》杂志为例,对其历史演进做了归纳和总结并得出一些结论:内容上,该刊愈来愈关注国际关系中的重大问题,理论性越来越强;质量上,该刊快速提升的被引半衰期表明所刊发的文章越来越能经受时间的考验。这些结论支持了该文对中国学术期刊做出的整体判断。通过对国外主要期刊的介绍、对比和借鉴,指出中国期刊在推行规范化的内部管理方面仍有待改进,而影响、束缚甚至决定学术期刊发展的外部体制性因素也亟待理顺和疏通。     

汤因比的历史研究与英国战后外交政策

作者从第二次世界大战前后英帝国的兴衰追踪分析汤因比的历史研究及其结论的变化,认为汤因比的学术生涯始终贯穿政治,其学术研究肩负着英国的特别文化使命,是为英国外交利益服务的。英国是第二次世界大战中的胜利者,同时也是被剥夺者:其海外利益不仅没有在战后得到有效保护,反而还遭到美国联手苏联的变相瓜分。第二次世界大战结束后,丘吉尔开始报复美国,用捧杀策略诱使美国与苏联、中国冲突并以此消耗并拖垮美国;与此同时还要借美国之手为欧洲收复在雅尔塔体制中失去的战略利益,使英国保留20世纪初、身披世界最强大帝国斗篷的骄傲。这些外交目的潜藏于汤因比历史研究之中且依稀可察。战场是最好的课堂,对手是最好的老师。英国人是盎格鲁-撒克逊民族中治理世界时间比较长的,其外交战略思维也是比较圆熟的。对此,我们要提高警惕,更要知己知彼,学习其中有效而我们尚不熟悉的治理世界的经验,为中国成长为一个世界性的大国做好准备。     

Modelling a Research Portfolio Using AHP: A Group Decision Process

The problem of choosing a research portfolio has been in the literature for many years. Suggested solutions have ranged from simple scoring models to complex mathematical resource allocation models, but the acceptance rate has been low. In this paper we present an application of a model based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process to a group decision situation. The results are encouraging, showing the positive nature of a model as a focal point in the process. They show that the interactive nature of the methodology encourages the development of subjective estimates and their subsequent discussion. An attempt to counter the problems of biasing has also been made. The methodology presented is seen to be easy to use and adaptable, and becomes an integrating mechanism for the group.     

美国“民主联盟”战略对国际政治的影响

美国民主联盟战略与推进民主战略密切相联,它是为维护美国霸权地位而设计的。如果该战略得以实施,其将对国际政治产生诸多方面的影响。首先,它不利于国际秩序朝着更加公正合理的方向发展。这主要表现在联合国的作用将因民主联盟的存在而削弱,或者被迫朝着美国所希望的方向而改革。与之相应,西方国家对国际事务的主导权将进一步加强,发展中国家的话语权将减弱。其次,该战略在中近期内不利于国际安全形势的改善。因为它会干扰民主联盟成员与非民主联盟成员在维护国际安全上展开真诚合作,制约西方大国同其他大国之间关系的健康发展,甚至还有可能刺激某些地区局势动荡乃至发生暴力冲突。最后,民主联盟战略不利于世界政治格局朝着多极化和非极化方向演进,它在客观上只是有利于美国增加其软实力,促使其单极力量增强,而使多极力量与非极力量相对减弱。作者认为,这一战略不符合世界多数国家和人民的利益。     

Boulevardisierungstrend in deutschen Fernsehnachrichten

Changes in content and presentation styles of TV news are an indicator of the way the public today perceives the political process. ?Tabloidization‘, i. e. an adoption of presentation styles used by tabloid newspapers and magazines, has been introduced as an operational concept to measure these changes. In order to assess whether a long-term process of tabloidization occurred in German TV news, we content-analyzed the political coverage in the main news broadcasts of the four major TV channels four weeks before the German general elections in 1983, 1990, and 1998. The empirical basis of this analysis is 1,241 reports. We found strong tendencies towards tabloidization. They have occurred on all dimensions we investigated, i. e. in content (decrease of policy coverage), form (e. g. more personalization), and style (e. g. shorter sequences). As could be expected, indicators of tabloidization are generally stronger for the commercial than the public TV stations. However, one of the public stations (ZDF) has also shown a sharp increase of tabloidization features, in some cases even surpassing its two commercial competitors.