Do Institutions Cause Growth?

We revisit the debate over whether political institutions cause economic growth, or whether, alternatively, growth and human capital accumulation lead to institutional improvement. We find that most indicators of institutional quality used to establish the proposition that institutions cause growth are constructed to be conceptually unsuitable for that purpose. We also find that some of the instrumental variable techniques used in the literature are flawed. Basic OLS results, as well as a variety of additional evidence, suggest that (a) human capital is a more basic source of growth than are the institutions, (b) poor countries get out of poverty through good policies, often pursued by dictators, and (c) subsequently improve their political institutions.     

Measuring financial risks with copulas

This paper is concerned with the statistical modeling of the dependence structure of multivariate financial data using the concept of copulas. We select some special copulas and identify the type of dependency captured by each one. We fit copulas to daily returns and simulate from the fitted models. We compare the effect of the choice of copula on risk measures and assess the variability of one-step-ahead predictions of portfolio losses. We analyze extreme scenarios and fit extreme value copulas to the block maxima and minima from daily returns. The stress scenarios constructed are compared to those obtained using models from the extreme value theory. We illustrate the usefulness of the copula approach using two stock market indexes.     

Value-in-context in crowdfunding ecosystems: how context frames value co-creation

The aim of this paper is to analyse the phenomenon of crowdfunding and determine whether it can be considered a service ecosystem, where the context frames innovation through value co-creation. A qualitative, multiple case study approach is used to analyse three platforms and six initiatives in the Spanish arts sector. The findings reveal that crowdfunding can be considered an ecosystem where value-in-context frames seven types of value co-creation, offering a contribution both to ecosystem theory and to the field of co-creation.     

The future of Russian gas exports to East Asia: Feasibility and market implications

For a long time, the Russian government has aimed to diversify gas exports to East Asian countries. This gearing of Russia towards Asia will have great consequences on world energy, the global economy, and geopolitics in the coming years. This paper analyzes the growth potential of Russia's diversification strategy and the impact this policy would have on sales to Europe. As the most likely scenario is for total gas exports to grow at a moderate rate from 2010 to 2030, any increase in sales to Asia could make difficult the raising of exports to Europe. Our thesis is that this trade-off will depend primarily on domestic consumption trends, geographic targeting of investments, and commercial and financial alliances with foreign partners. However, imports from Central Asia, declining exports to Ukraine and Belarus, and Gazprom investments in other gas-producing countries could also affect gas exports and gas distribution among different markets.     

Marketing firm performance: When does marketing lead to financial gains?

The research investigated whether economic context and prior financial reinforcement/punishment moderate the effectiveness of marketing behavior in generating gains for the firm. An experiment with a longitudinal design was conducted using 1,759 companies from 2000 to 2017. The results demonstrate that marketing is effective in gaining market share when the country's economy is growing. In contrast, it increases return on assets and Tobin's Q when the country's economy is in recession, this increase being maximized when the company was financially reinforced. The study helps explain the circumstances in which marketing activities boost firms' financial gains.     

Design principles of hybrid approaches in new product development: a systematic literature review

Setting the right approach for new product development (NPD) in the presence of uncertainty remains an ongoing debate in innovation management. Stage-gate systems (SGS) and agile methodology (AM) are the dominant approaches. Recently, hybrid approaches (combining SGS and AM) have been proposed. Although these hybrid approaches represent a significant development in NPD, combining them without considering their design principles might lead to contradictory and competing conceptual formulations, thus increasing the difficulty of comparison among studies. Moreover, scholars and practitioners may struggle to understand when, why and how a certain configuration of the NPD process provides the right response to different manifestations of uncertainty. The current literature faces problems regarding the clarity of design principles (e.g. flexibility and adaptability), and this has led to research gaps concerning the uncertainty contingency and outcomes of hybrid approaches. This study combines bibliometric and content analyses to identify four design parameters and principles of NPD hybrid approaches: flexibility, adaptability, velocity and integration. Our findings might help advance the development and comparison of different hybrid approaches.     

Opening the black box: Finding the source of cost inefficiency

Parametric and nonparametric procedures are used to identify the apparent source of cost inefficiency in banking. Inefficiencies of 20–25% from earlier studies are reduced to 1–5% when, in addition to commonly specified cost function influences, variables reflecting banks’ external business environment and industry indicators of “productivity” are added. These productivity indicators explain most of the reduction in bank operating cost over 1992–2001 and was 5 times the reduction in the dispersion of inefficiency. Inefficiency appears stable over time because it is small relative to industry-wide cost changes occurring concurrently and because technology dispersion is imperfect.

The evaluation of a surveillance system for violent and non-intentional injury mortality in Colombian cities

Since 2002, the Institute for Peace Promotion and Injury/Violence Prevention (CISALVA) at the Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia and the Colombia Program at Georgetown University have developed and implemented 21 epidemiologically based municipal crime observatories in intermediate-sized municipalities in Colombia. These crime observatories serve as monitoring centres that provide low cost, geo-referenced methods of data collection and analysis, which allow cities to develop more responsive policies and prevention programmes and enhance governance. This article focuses on the methodology employed and lessons learned that may be applicable to similar settings. Worth noting within the results was a significant decrease in homicides after the first year of the programme. Whether or not such results could be attributed to the method or to the nature of the interventions and policy initiatives stemming from it remains open to conjecture.     

Testing time-homogeneity of rating transitions after origination of debt

When modelling rating transitions as continuous-time Markov processes, in practice, time-homogeneity is a common assumption, yet restrictive, in order to reduce the complexity of the model. This paper investigates whether rating transition probabilities change after the origination of debt. Accordingly, we develop a likelihood-ratio test for the hypothesis of time-homogeneity. The alternative is a step function of transition intensities. The test rejects time-homogeneity for rating transitions observed over 7 years in a real corporate portfolio. Especially 1-year transition probabilities increase over the first year after origination. This time effect suggests that banks should manage their credit portfolios with respect to the age of debt.