In Search of Pathways out of Poverty: Mapping the Role of International Labour Migration,Agriculture and Rural Labour

The issue of rural poverty continues to shape critical academic and policy discourses in the global South. In such discourses, some scholars and policy‐makers highlight non‐agrarian pathways leading to prosperity, while others continue to emphasize the significance of land and farming for poverty reduction. However, such analyses tend not only to obscure strong linkages between agriculture, migration and rural labour, but also stay silent on how rural people interpret changes or continuities in their livelihoods. In this paper, I focus on the case of rural Nepal to unfold how some rural people, but not others, improve their livelihoods through international labour migration, farming and rural labour. This paper reveals that many poor people have experienced improved livelihoods pursuing a diverse portfolio of agricultural and non‐agricultural activities including labour migration. However, the dispossession of poor people from land and their adverse incorporation into the local and international labour markets continue to perpetuate chronic poverty.     

Decision making in mergers: An application of the analytic hierarchy process

A critical element in the success or failure of an acquisition outcome is the ability to identify compatible acquisitions. This study focuses on the operational problem of effectively ranking a set of potential acquisition candidates against a multivariate set of attributes. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology in this regard. The model is fairly easy to use and is flexible enough to permit the decision maker to consider multiple viewpoints and multiple attributes that may be qualitative or quantitative in nature. The suitability of the model is illustrated by applying it to a hypothetical example.     

Regulatory Climate and Electric Utility Capital Structure Decisions

A theoretical model of the role of regulatory climate in the capital structure decisions of regulated electric utilities is developed that indicates managers can mitigate the consequences of unfavorable regulation by increasing the proportion of debt in the capital structure. The increase in leverage is limited by increased bankruptcy risk with higher levels of debt. The model predicts that utilities will react to their regulatory climate by adjusting capital structure. This behavior may be an undesirable consequence of the regulatory process. Empirical support for the model, both cross sectional and over time, is provided.     

The Impact of Illegal Business Practice on Shareholder Returns

Data regarding illegal firm behavior were obtained for the period 1980–1990. Using the single index market model, the study finds that public announcements of indictments for major corporate crimes have a significant and long-term negative impact upon shareholder wealth, particularly for firms found guilty of the indictment. The results indicate that indictments of larger firms have a proportionally smaller impact on excess returns. Furthermore, indictments handed down since the Levine/Boesky scandal appear to have had a more adverse impact.     

A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe

This study examines the accuracy and bias of financial analysts' EPS forecasts in nine European countries during 1987 to 1995. There are significant differences between the countries which may be due to the differences in earnings behaviour, accounting practices, and the influence of securities markets. An optimistic bias is endemic in European forecasts, consistent with research from the US. Investors who incorporate earnings forecasts in their stock selection procedures may be able to improve returns by explicitly adjusting their models for observed regularities in earnings forecast errors. However, we have shown that these regularities differ in incidence and magnitude across the countries studied, and further research is needed to effectively model these differences.     

STOCK RETURNS AND OPTION PRICES: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

This study is an investigation of estimates of expected stock returns implicit in option data. The Lee-Rao-Auchmuty option valuation model provides a unique opportunity to examine whether return measurements derived by nonlinear estimation techniques show any correlation with future stock returns. During the short period covered in this study, the Lee-Rao-Auchmuty estimates give preliminary indications that they are better predictors of actual stock returns than are estimates obtained from historical data.     

Option pricing in a lognormal securities market with discrete trading

This paper derives a call option valuation equation assuming discrete trading in securities markets where the underlying asset and market returns are bivariate lognormally distributed and investors have increasing, concave utility functions exhibiting skewness preference. Since the valuation does not require the continouus time riskfree hedging of Black and Scholes, nor the discrete time riskfree hedging of Cox, Ross and Rubinstein, market effects are introduced into the option valuation relation. The new option valuation seems to correct for the systematic mispricing of well-in and well-out of the money options by the Black and Scholes option pricing formula.     

The unintended consequences of PCAOB auditing Standard Nos. 2 and 3 on the reliability of preliminary earnings releases

Implementation of Public Company Accounting Oversight Board Auditing Standards No. 2 on internal control and No. 3 on documentation has delayed audit completion. However, due to market demand for timely disclosures, most firms maintain the same preliminary earnings release date even though the audit may not be complete as of that date. Results indicate revisions to preliminary announcements when filing the 10-K report would have been 35% lower during 2005 if the historical frequency of issuing earnings releases after the audit report date had not changed. Additionally, stock market reaction to impending revisions suggests lower reliability of preliminary earnings.     

Log-concavity and monotonicity of hazard and reversed hazard functions of univariate and multivariate skew-normal distributions

This paper establishes the log-concavity property of several forms of univariate and multivariate skew-normal distributions. This property is then used to prove the monotonicity of the hazard as well as reversed hazard functions. The log-concavity and monotonicity of the hazard and reversed hazard functions of series and parallel systems of components is then discussed. The corresponding results for the multivariate normal distribution follow readily as special cases.     

Does modern endogenous growth theory adequately represent Allyn Young?

Endogenous growth theory is now fashionable. It seeks to explainwhy per capita income growth in capital abundant countries isoften faster than in capital poor countries and defies the operationof diminishing returns. This theory, which took off with Romerand Lucas, often makes Allyn Young's concept of increasing returnsand Marshall's distinction between internal and external economiesits starting point but considers their treatment of the subjectas not sufficiently rigorous. The modern endogenous growth theoriststhen claim to explain what they had in mind with greater clarity,rigour and depth. This paper argues that this is not the caseas these theorists actually misrepresent Young in importantways.