Corporate credit,stock price inflation and economic fluctuations

This study analyses the empirical interaction between real corporate credit, real income, real stock prices, the short-term interest rate and inflation for the Netherlands and the USA. The framework is based on a five-variable structural vector error correction model which identifies the permanent and temporary shocks within the system. Erratic shocks in the real amount of corporate credit and in stock prices could potentially have some impact on inflation in the case of the USA and on real output in the Netherlands. However, the structural VAR analysis also shows that the above-mentioned erratic shocks only explain a small proportion of the variation in inflation and economic activity, and inflation objective shifts and supply side shocks are much more important determinants for economic fluctuations.     

Debt ownership structure and legal system: an international analysis

This paper is concerned with the ownership structure of corporate debt from an institutional perspective. An attempt is made to identify the factors affecting bank debt use from an international sample of companies from Austria, Germany, Japan, Belgium, France, Italy, Holland, Spain, Portugal, Finland, Sweden and the USA. The results show that bank debt depends both on factors specific to each company and on institutional features of each country. More exactly, it is found that bank loans are related to firm size, to the quality and risk of the projects, and to the collateral. It is also found that a number of legal-institutional factors are impacting on the source of firms’ debt, such as creditor protection, firm disclosure requirements and law enforcement.     

Filling vacancies: an empirical analysis of the cost and benefit of search in the labour market

This paper investigates empirically the factors that affect the cost–benefit ratio of employers’ search. The empirical analysis is based on a small Dutch data set containing individual information on filled vacancies. It is found that firms that use advertisements during recruitment are sensitive to labour market conditions; their search cost per applicant rises (drops) in tight (slack) labour markets because of the diminished ability of advertisements to generate applicants in tight labour markets. Furthermore, it is found that the high search cost incurred by posting identical vacancies is more than compensated for by the benefits from having a larger flow of applicants.     

Time-specific disturbances and cross-sectional dependency in a small-sample heterogeneous panel data unit root test

In their seminal work, Im et al. (1997 Im, KS, Pesaran, MH and Shin, Y. 1997. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. 1997. Working paper, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge. Mimeographed [Google Scholar], 2003 Im, KS, Pesaran, MH and Shin, Y. 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115: 53–74. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggested that time series for several cross-sectional units could be used to increase the power of the Dickey--Fuller unit root test. They argued that when cross-sectional correlation is a problem that can be modelled by a time-specific factor, demeaning across the cross-sectional units can solve the problem. In this study, this proposition is proven valid, but it is also shown that previously supplied standardizing moments are inappropriate when the number of cross-sections are small, causing size to differ from the significance level. To correct this size distortion, the current paper supplies response surface parameters that can be used to obtain moments that are valid when a time-specific factor suffices for modelling cross-sectional correlation in the heterogeneous panel data unit root framework. The correct size of the panel data unit root test comes at the cost of a somewhat lower power against a stationary alternative.     

Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves

The reported analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities, it is found that the simultaneous estimation approach accounts for the abrupt changes in implied volatility associated with limit moves and generates more accurate price forecasts than conventional methods that rely on only one implied variable.     

Source of income effects for demand decisions and taxable consumption

The relationship between sources of income and demand decisions by the household is examined here with an eye toward the ramifications on consumption tax bases. Income sources may be important when households attach psychic and transaction costs to individual purchases or when sources are assigned via a mental accounting process. In either case, general and specific sales tax bases may be affected by changes in income composition. Empirical results indicate two important findings. First, tax exemptions can introduce significant income source effects for a general consumption tax base. Second, the importance of differential tax rates for gasoline and food-at-home strongly depends on the mix of labour, capital, retirement and non-retirement transfer pay.     

Financial sector regulation,bank franchise values and savings mobilization

Empirical studies show that financial development exhibits a positive relationship with economic growth and the extent of poverty alleviation. Implementing policies that best promote financial development – such as mobilizing savings – are therefore, a matter of importance for all developing countries. A recent theoretical proposal that draws inspiration from the East Asian development experience hypothesises that by regulating to augment bank franchise values (i.e. the capitalized value of expected future profits accruing to banks), more savings can be mobilized compared with pursuing liberalization policies. This article provides an empirical test of this theory using a panel data set that covers 101 countries over the period 1994 to 2001. The results are not supportive of the theoretical proposal. In commenting on this result, it is noted that while intervening in the financial sector might not boost the aggregate quantity of savings mobilized, liberalization policies in developing countries should not necessarily be expedited, as other considerations are also clearly relevant.