The equilibrium exchange rates of European currencies and the transition to euro

This study estimates the demand system using Japanese micro data and calculates the cost of living index (COLI) to assess the substitution bias in the Consumer Price Index. The estimated bias during the sample period of 1982–2000 is about 0.06 percentage points, which is larger than the estimates calculated from a superlative index. The difference between the COLI and a superlative index can be explained with the upward movements of the average utility level in Japan, since the cost of living for the rich has grown more rapidly than that for the poor.     

The demand for paper and paperboard: econometric models for the European Union

Cost minimization theory suggests national demand equations for paper and paperboard in which demand is a negative function of the price of paper and paperboard, and a positive function of gross national product. A dynamic version of this model was estimated with data from European Union countries, for newsprint, printing and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard. Country-by-country equations proved unstable. Pooling the data across countries, with dummy variables to account for fixed country effects, led to well defined short-term and long-term elasticities with respect to price and gross national product. The hypothesis that income and price elasticities were the same across the European Union countries could not be rejected at the 1% significance level, for the three product groups. From 1969 to 1995, most of the growth in demand had been due to the growth in national product, while price increases had only a small negative effect.     

Trade imbalance in international message telephone services

An econometric model is estimated to identify determinants of trade imbalance in international message telephone services markets. Results indicate that asymmetric market structure is important in explaining bilateral market imbalances for high income country pairs. For low and high income country pairs, GDP per capita is the dominant cause of traffic imbalances. The findings suggest that telecommunications liberalization policies are effective in reducing distortions in international traffic flows and settlement payments. However, liberalization should be accompanied by developmental programmes that enhance income per capita and telecommunications network investment in developing countries. Such programmes may be effective in providing a more equitable distribution of the gains from telecommunications reform across countries.     

Estimating global returns to scale with a cone-homogeneous production function: some cross-section results

This paper employs a cone-homogeneous production function to approximate, as closely as desired, a ray-homogeneous production function. Points in input space are projected by an output scaling function on to a fixed ray and a Cobb-Douglas cone function is used to obtain an estimate of global returns to scale. The empirical results indicate that we get a good approximation to a ray-homogeneous production function from the estimated cone-homogeneous function.     

Capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates: are they complements or substitutes in warning about future inflation?

This research examines capacity utilization as a measure of economic slack in the US economy. Many macroeconomists have questioned the use of capacity utilization as a measure of economics slack on several fronts. The first issue revolves around the definition and accuracy of measurement of the capacity utilization rate in the US economy. Since this research use existing Federal Reserve measures of capacity utilization no insights into the definition and measurement issues are offered other than the fact that a consistent role is found for two different Fed measures of capacity utilization in explaining inflation. The second issue effectively involves the concern as to robustness of the link between the capacity utilization rate and inflation. It was found that there is indeed reason for the Federal Reserve to take note of changes in capacity utilization when trying to determine its policy position with regard to inflation. Clearly, the high capacity measure developed in this research offers distinct information about the inflation process. The third issue raises the question as to whether the capacity utilization and unemployment rates are complements or substitutes in the inflation equation. Both rates tend to provide similar information regarding price changes at low levels of aggregate resource usage. However, as resource usage in the economy becomes increasingly close to its maximum potential, the labour market impact on inflation, as capture by unemployment rate measures, is distinctly different from that of capacity constraints. Finally, if the capacity utilization rate is indeed a useful measure of inflationary pressure, is there a threshold level of the capacity utilization rate above which policymakers should become particularly concerned about the potential of accelerating inflation? It was found that across two measures of inflation, the widely discussed capacity threshold level is in the 84-85% range.     

Our fans in the north: the demand for British Rugby League

This paper reports the results of estimating a single equation model of an attendance function for British Rugby League over the seasons 1982/83 to 1990/91. The data are panel data covering virtually every team which played in the two division league over the nine year time period. Diagnostic tests indicate that the appropriate model is a semilog random effects model, where the dependent variable is league attendance weighted by population. The major results are as follows: there are significant positive relationships between league attendance and various measures of team success (although the direction of causality is moot), team quality (as proxied by the two divisions) and the economic quality of team location (as proxied by the unemployment rate); but there is no discernible relationship between league attendance and either success in nonleague trophy competitions or measures of exceptional player quality.     

Product choice for a firm selling related products: A parimutuel application

This paper provides a framework for analysis of product choice by a multiproduct firm selling several products whose demands are interrelated. The decision making process of a racetrack-racebook regarding the parimutuel wagering products (both number and which ones) it should supply is illustrated. A racetrack-racebook is a business entity, which offers its patrons the opportunity to wager, not only on live horse racing conducted at the racetrack but also on races simulcast to that racetrack from a variety of racetracks, from both in-state and out-of-state locations. The demands for these wagering products are interrelated and these interrelationships play a key role in determining the number (and which ones) of these wagering opportunities that will be supplied. Based on the experience of a specific racetrack-racebook, these demand functions are estimated econometrically and the role of these interrelated demands in the supply decision is explored. An algorithm is developed to search over all possible product portfolios to determine that combination of products yielding the highest sales, revenue, or profit.     

The effects of the international-domestic interest rate gap on US output

This paper examines how the relationships linking money to real output are altered when an international-domestic interest rate gap is included in the model. The results indicate that both the international-domestic interest rate gap and term structure exert a statistically significant effect on real economic activity. In addition, fluctuations in these variables contain significant information about future changes in real output. An interesting finding is that while the term structure dominates the international-domestic interest rate gap when estimating the entire time period, 1970:1–1996:4, the international-domestic interest rate gap clearly dominates in the more recent time period, 1985:1–1996:4.     

Investment in human capital and gender wage differences: evidence from the NLSY

This paper uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to investigate gender differences in returns to various forms of human capital. Since the NLSY includes relatively detailed information regarding on- and off-the-job training, we place special emphasis on measuring gender differences in the incidence of and returns to formal post-school training. Also considered is the role of nonhuman capital factors such as industry and occupation in explaining the wage gap. It is found that about 60% of the gender wage gap in the sample is explained by mean differences in individual characteristics and market circumstances. This suggests a smaller role for discrimination in explaining the wage gap than previous research has found. The research indicates that training does not affect the gender wage gap. Also it is found that there is no statistically significant difference in the rate of return to other measures of human capital for women versus men. Our research suggests that the largest factors contributing to the wage gap are differences in the stocks of human capital for men and women, and differences in the distributions of men and women across industries and occupations.     

The non-productive entrepreneurial process

A large literature explores the importance of entrepreneurship as the catalyst of economic progress. In contrast, this paper argues that entrepreneurs are the driver of economic stagnation. We analyze the non-productive entrepreneurial process and discuss three channels through which non-productive activities have a multiplier effect culminating in economic decline and stagnation. Drawing on examples of non-productive entrepreneurship from both underdeveloped and developed countries, we provide insight into why economic stagnation persists in the former and why economic decline can occur in the latter.