Ratings-based credit risk modelling: An empirical analysis

Banks have recently developed new techniques for gauging the credit risk associated with portfolios of illiquid and defaultable instruments. These techniques could revolutionise banks' management of credit risk and could in the longer term serve as a more risk-sensitive basis for calculating regulatory capital on banks' loan books than in Basel 2, the new regulatory capital framework. In this paper we implement a popular credit risk model that exploits the information in credit ratings to determine a portfolio's value-at-risk. Using price data on large eurobond portfolios, we assess, on an out-of-sample basis, how well the model tracks the risks it is supposed to measure.     

Manual dishwashing habits: an empirical analysis of UK consumers

This study presents an overview of the washing up behaviour of consumers in the UK. Peoples' individual attitudes were observed as were the amount of water and energy used, the time taken and the cleaning performance. Additionally, manual dishwashing was compared with the use of automatic dishwashers. Participants were recruited to represent all geographic regions of the UK as well as forming a representative cross‐section of the population. Each of the 150 participants washed a full load of soiled tableware based on the standard EN 50242 ‘Electric Dishwashers for Household Use – Methods for Measuring the Performance’. For comparison, the best selling dishwasher in the UK in 2007 was tested under the same conditions as those in the consumer trial. Additionally, consumers who owned a full‐size dishwasher were asked to load it to the point when they decided that the dishwasher was full. The study shows that these consumers, on average, used 49 l of water and 1.7 kWh of energy, whereas the dishwasher used 13 l of water and 1.3 kWh of energy on average for the same amount of dishes under the conditions tested. Statistical analysis showed that these differences are significant. The dishes washed by hand were found to be slightly less clean than dishes washed in a dishwasher. For washing a full dishwasher load by hand, the participants needed, on average, 60 min, while they only took 9 min on average to load and unload the same amount of dishes in a dishwasher. The average participants were able to fill almost the full load into the dishwasher (96% of the items as used in a test following EN 50242).     

Household allocation of microfinance credit in Kyrgyzstan

The limited endowment of resources that usually characterised low-income households imposes a binding trade-off between current and future consumption. In many transition countries, microfinance represents the primary source of credit other than informal moneylenders for low-income households which is the situation in the Kyrgyz Republic. Thus, this study analyses the determinants of household microfinance credit allocation in Kyrgyzstan from 2006 to 2010. We model the household’s behaviour through a multivariate approach to allow for multiple choices at the same time. Results indicate that mobile phone and livestock ownership were identified as two key factors which increase the probability of borrowers using microfinance credit for productive purposes. Furthermore, borrowers in the rural Naryn region, one of the poorest areas in Kyrgyzstan, have a higher probability of allocating their loans toward food purchases and the smallest probability of allocating credit toward starting a business or other productive purposes.     

The influence of family ownership dispersion on debt level in privately held firms

The aim of this article is to investigate the financing behavior of privately held firms along the dispersion of family ownership. Drawing on the socio-emotional wealth perspective, we argue that debt levels are contingent on the degree of ownership dispersion among family members. Based on a sample of 2451 observations, in a 10-year time frame, our results reveal the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between debt level and intra-family ownership dispersion. We demonstrate that this relationship is moderated by the generational involvement that inverts it in later generations.     

International status seeking, trade, and growth leadership

Abstract .  We study a two-country endogenous growth model where the utility of agents in developing countries is affected by consumption gaps with advanced economies. International status seeking tends to revert growth differentials in favour of the developing country. Preferences with endogenous status desire generate convergence in growth rates in the presence of structural gaps and convergence in income levels if productivity differences disappear. This process is driven by declining terms of trade and faster capital accumulation of the status seeker. The model predictions are shown to be consistent with the stylized facts that characterized the growth performance of East Asian economies.     

Home‐grown food and the benefits of sharing: The “intergenerational pact” in postsocialist Moldova

The policy literature on postsocialist Europe tends to frame smallholders' practices of food self‐provisioning and sharing as driven by necessity and proposes land consolidation to increase productivity and efficiency. However, these practices generate nonfinancial benefits, which need to be accounted for. In this paper, I test the socio‐economic relevance of these practices in the Republic of Moldova, the country with the highest density of farming households in Europe and whose government has embraced the rural modernization agenda to integrate into the EU economic space. I carry out quantitative estimates using the household budget survey and complement the results with qualitative insights from an original smallholder survey. I find that food self‐provisioning and sharing are positively related to subjective well‐being and that there is an “intergenerational pact,” with home‐grown food flowing from late‐adulthood smallholders to urban‐based young families and the vulnerable elderly. A counterfactual analysis shows that poverty and inequality would be higher in the absence of donated food, especially in urban areas. The preservation of smallholder farming through widespread access to land could thus help fight poverty and provide social benefits vis‐à‐vis land consolidation.     

Exploring the Persuasiveness of Accounting Numbers in the Framing of ‘Performance’ – A Micro-Level Analysis of Performance Review Meetings

Based on a micro-level analysis of performance review meetings and drawing on an interactional framing perspective, this paper analyses the role of accounting numbers as ‘framing devices’ in discussions about performance. Analyzing interactions between superiors and subordinates, we examine how and why these two groups of actors mobilize different accounting numbers to make claims about performance and try to persuade the other party. Our interest is with the choice of accounting numbers and how they come to be seen as persuasive. The main theoretical argument developed in this paper is that whether a specific accounting number or indicator comes to be seen as persuasive or not in a particular situation is both a matter of how legitimate the underlying indicator is to the actors involved as well as whether they regard the signal it provides, i.e. the actual outcome on this particular indicator, as salient when compared to the actual outcomes on alternative indicators. Taken together, our findings suggest that persuasiveness is not an ‘objective’ quality of accounting numbers, but a situated achievement that results from interactive alignments between different actors with potentially competing interests.     

A recipe for success? Learning from the rapid adoption of improved chickpea varieties in Ethiopia

Many studies detail constraints deemed responsible for the limited adoption of new technologies among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, here we study the conditions that led to the remarkably fast spread of improved chickpea varieties in Ethiopia. Within just seven years, the adoption rate rose from 30 to 80% of the farmers. A combination of factors explains the rapid uptake. Their attraction lay in superior returns and disease resistance. Chickpea was already an important crop for rural households in the studied districts, for both cash income and consumption. Good market access and an easy accessibility of extension services advanced the adoption process. Thus, an attractive technology suitable for rural households in a conducive environment enabled adoption. Our findings prompt us to stress the importance of tailoring agricultural innovations to the realities and demands of rural households, and the need to design and deploy interventions on the basis of ex-ante knowledge on factors potentially determining their success or failure.     

Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century

The growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change. We present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting (MFA). On the grounds of published statistical data, data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources, we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass, fossil energy carriers, metal ores, industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005. This period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth. The paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy, population growth and primary energy consumption. We show that during the last century, global materials use increased 8-fold. Humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons (Gt) of materials per year. In particular, the period after WWII was characterized by rapid physical growth, driven by both population and economic growth. Within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials. Materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy, but faster than world population. As a consequence, material intensity (i.e. the amount of materials required per unit of GDP) declined, while materials use per capita doubled from 4.6 to 10.3 t/cap/yr. The main material groups show different trajectories. While biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth, the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace. We show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use, while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions. So far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development.     

Motivation crowding‐out and green‐paradox‐like outcomes

We analyze the effectiveness of environmental policy in a framework in which households’ utility is determined by both private and social components, representing their extrinsic and intrinsic motivations to undertake green actions, respectively. Environmental policy, in the form of a subsidy aiming to incentivize the adoption of a green technology, on the one hand, directly increases households’ extrinsic motivation, while, on the other hand, indirectly decreases their intrinsic motivation. We show that, provided that the indirect effect dominates, the policy leads to crowding‐out of intrinsic motivation which ultimately undermines the effectiveness of the policy itself. Specifically, despite its positive effect on environmental outcomes in the short run, the policy will lead to a deterioration in long‐run environmental outcomes, giving rise to a reverse green‐paradox‐like outcome. Moreover, even in the case in which the direct effect dominates, provided that the indirect effect is large enough, the policy will generate a deterioration in short‐run environmental outcomes. These results clearly suggest that the optimal design of environmental policy is particularly complicated since it requires to take into account also its effects on intrinsic motivation.