Dividend‐Rollover Effect and the Ad Hoc Black‐Scholes Model

One of the most widely used option‐valuation models among practitioners is the ad hoc Black‐Scholes (AHBS) model. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We carefully consider three dividend strategies (No dividend, Implied‐forward dividend, and Actual dividend) for the AHBS model to investigate their effect on pricing errors. We suggest a new dividend strategy, implied‐forward dividend, which incorporates expectational information on dividends embedded in option prices. We demonstrate that our implied‐forward dividend strategy produces more consistent estimates between in‐sample market and model option prices. More importantly our new implied‐forward dividend strategy makes more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts for one‐day or one‐week ahead prices. Second, we document that both a “Return‐volatility” Smile and a “Return‐pricing Error” Smile exist. From these return characteristics, we make two conclusions: (1) the return dependency of implied volatility is an important explanatory variable and should be controlled to reduce the pricing error of an AHBS model, and (2) it is important for the hedging horizon to be based on return size, that is, the larger the contemporaneous return, the more frequent an option issuer must rebalance the option's hedge. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:742‐772, 2012     

The effects of product attributes and service quality of transportation card solutions on service user’s continuance and word-of-mouth intention

Service Business - Product attributes are an inherent quality considered as an essential factor for consumers’ purchasing intention for product. Despite the increase of consumer interest in...     

The Credit Channel at Work: Lessons from the Financial Crisis in Korea

We demonstrate that the credit channel of transmission of monetary/financial shocks appears to have aggravated Korea's economic crisis. We use micro-data gathered at the individual bank level to identify this channel of transmission. Our major findings are as follows: i) consistent with banks' autonomous retrenchment in loan supply, monetary tightening broadens the spread between marginal bank lending rates and corporate commercial paper rates; ii) credit limits on overdrafts – arguably a proxy identifying shifts in loan supply – react negatively to the monetary squeeze; iii) large negative capital shocks induce banks to disproportionately slow-down both lending and deposit taking and to disproportionately raise their lending rates. Our findings lend unequivocal support to the hypothesis that banks' autonomous contraction restricted the availability of credit and magnified the increase in its cost. In turn, this compounded the Korean crisis by aggravating liquidity constraints for the vast majority of agents who rely only on bank credit as an external source of funds.     

A forecast simulation analysis of the next‐generation DVD market based on consumer preference data

Just as standards wars over formats had characterized VCRs upon introduction to the market, the next‐generation DVD standards war between Blu‐Ray and HD‐DVD lasted 6 years before Blu‐Ray won the contest. Beginning with stated preference data drawn from a structured conjoint survey conducted before Blu‐Ray became the de facto standard of the next‐generation DVD format, we estimate consumer preferences on digital video players. A Bayesian mixed‐logit model is used and market share simulations are conducted under various scenarios based on the estimated parameters from Bayesian mixed‐logit model to surmise the future South Korean digital video‐player market. Results indicate that consumers feel that network size and title availability are more important than hardware‐related facets of the product, such as definition and storage capacity. The level of title availability and price of the Blu‐Ray player for Blu‐Ray's dominance over DVD will dramatically vary by the penetration rate of DVD players.     

Hyperbolic Discounting and Consumer Patience: The Case of Korea

ABSTRACT

In this article, we test whether the consumption pattern in Korea exhibits a time-inconsistent discounting behavior compared to the conventional exponential discounting. We derive the quasi-hyperbolic Euler equation and estimate it using the generalized method of moments (GMM). The estimation results show that Korean consumers exhibit a time-inconsistent quasi-hyperbolic discounting behavior in general, but the pattern of inconsistency in consumption behavior, in particular the degree of impatience, depends on the estimation period, in particular whether it includes financial crisis periods in 1997–98 and 2008–11.     

Bias Reduction in Dynamic Panel Data Models by Common Recursive Mean Adjustment*

The within‐group estimator (same as the least squares dummy variable estimator) of the dominant root in dynamic panel regression is known to be biased downwards. This article studies recursive mean adjustment (RMA) as a strategy to reduce this bias for AR(p) processes that may exhibit cross‐sectional dependence. Asymptotic properties for N,T→∞ jointly are developed. When ( log ²T)(N/T)→ζ, where ζ is a non‐zero constant, the estimator exhibits nearly negligible inconsistency. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the RMA estimator performs well in terms of reducing bias, variance and mean square error both when error terms are cross‐sectionally independent and when they are not. RMA dominates comparable estimators when T is small and/or when the underlying process is persistent.     

Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Labor Income: A Continuous Time Approach

This paper studies the consumption and portfolio selection problem of an agent who is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk. The paper investigates how the optimal consumption and asset allocation policies deviate from the case where the financial market is perfect, i.e., the case where there are no liquidity constraints and uninsurable income risk. In particular, the paper shows that, for a given level of financial wealth and labor income, optimal consumption is smaller and the optimal level of risk taking is lower in the case where the agent is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk than in the case where the financial market is perfect. The paper also discusses how the agent assesses the value of lifetime labor income and relates this evaluation to optimal consumption and asset allocation policies.     

A Unified Model of Corporate Acquisitions and Divestitures: An Incentive Perspective

The purpose of this paper is to unify corporate acquisitions and divestitures (e.g., spin-offs, equity carve-outs and sell-offs) into a simple but comprehensive agency model where risk and managerial incentives interact to determine an optimal corporate governance and an incentive compensation scheme. Emphasizing human and nonhuman aspect of corporate assets, the model not only explains existing empirical evidence regarding contractual and organizational changes, but also suggests new perspective regarding firms' behavior around corporate acquisitions and divestitures. Thus, it attempts to reconcile between synergistic and agency viewpoints in the takeover literature and provides determining factors in choosing between spinoffs and equity carve-outs.     

An Investigation of the Effects of Prices and Exchange Rates on Trade Flows in East Asia

This paper investigates the dynamic response of imports and exports to changes in domestic prices, foreign prices and real effective exchange rates for Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. A vector autoregressive model and cointegration analysis are used to study the long-run relationships and the short-run dynamics of these variables. The vector error-correction model indicates that in almost all cases, domestic and foreign prices have a larger impact on the trade flows than the real effective exchange rates. We cannot find any significant difference in the response time of import demand to shocks in prices and exchange rates; however, the response time for export supply varies among countries.     

Patent pools,litigation, and innovation

This article analyzes patent pools and their effects on litigation incentives, overall royalty rates, and social welfare when patent rights are probabilistic and can be invalidated in court. With probabilistic patents, the license fees reflect the strength of the patents. We show that patent pools of complementary patents can be used to discourage infringement by depriving potential licensees of the ability to selectively challenge patents and making them committed to a proposition of all‐or‐nothing in patent litigation. If patents are sufficiently weak, patent pools with complementary patents reduce social welfare as they charge higher licensing fees and chill subsequent innovation incentives.