Key lessons learned from recent experience with Flexible Transport Services

Many local authorities and public transport operators throughout Europe are experimenting with or considering flexibly delivered public transport systems, mainly with a view to improving social inclusion in areas difficult to cover by conventional public transport. Many such initiatives have been in response to recent developments in transport telematics.The objective of this paper is to provide accessible and user friendly guidelines for the implementation or development of flexible services identifying key issues that need to be considered at a policy level. These follow an analysis of the provision of telematics-based flexible transport schemes showcasing examples of recent practical experience from the US and Europe.     

School Performance in Australia: Is There a Role for Quasi‐Markets?

Recent changes to the organisation of Australia's education system have raised the possibility of implementing wide‐ranging market reforms. In this article we discuss the scope for introducing reforms similar to the United Kingdom's ‘quasi‐market’ model. We discuss the role of school league tables in providing signals and incentives in a quasi‐market. Specifically, we compare a range of unadjusted and model‐based league tables of primary school performance in Queensland's public education system. These comparisons indicate that model‐based tables which account for socio‐economic status and student intake quality vary significantly from the unadjusted tables.     

Applications of a multivariate Hawkes process to joint modeling of sentiment and market return events

To investigate the complex interactions between market events and investor sentiment, we employ a multivariate Hawkes process to evaluate dynamic effects among four types of distinct events: positive returns, negative returns, positive sentiment, and negative sentiment. Using both intraday S&P 500 return data and Thomson Reuters News sentiment data from 2008 to 2014, we find: (a) self-excitation is strong for all four types of events at 15 min time scale; (b) there is a significant mutual-excitation between positive returns and positive sentiment and negative returns and negative sentiment; (c) decay of return events is almost twice as fast as sentiment events, which means market prices move faster than investor sentiment changes; (d) positive sentiment shocks tend to generate negative price jumps; and (e) the cross-excitation between positive and negative sentiments is stronger than their self-excitation. These findings provide further understanding of investor sentiment and its intricate interactions with market returns.     

The information content of disaggregated accounting profitability: operating activities versus financing activities

This paper reports three empirical findings on the differential information content of the components of accounting profitability. First, the paper finds that the shareholder profitability driven by operating activities has a stronger association with annual stock returns than the shareholder profitability driven by financing activities. The finding provides empirical support for the FASB Financial Statement Presentation project, and the project suggests disaggregating accounting profitability into operating and financing activities. Second, the paper finds that the sustainable portion of operating profitability has a stronger association with annual stock returns than the unsustainable portion. This finding contributes to the literature by extending the two popular methods of breaking down operating profitability (DuPont analysis and operating liability leverage) into sustainable versus unsustainable operating income. Penman (Financial statement analysis and security valuation. McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 2010) suggests disaggregating operating income into sustainable versus unsustainable operating income. Finally, the paper identifies the conditional persistence in Amir et al. (Rev Acc Stud 16:302–327, 2011) as one of the empirical attributes that affects the valuation usefulness of disaggregated accounting profitability. The conditional persistence measures the marginal contribution of disaggregated profitability to the persistence of aggregate profitability. This paper reports that the disaggregation is more useful in firms with significant differences in the conditional persistence of disaggregated components than in other firms. Test results are robust to controls for cross-sectional and time-series dependence in error terms.     

A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF HERDING AND UNIFRACTAL SCALING BEHAVIOUR

We model the financial market using a class of agent‐based models in which agents’ expectations are driven by heuristic forecasting rules (in contrast to the rational expectations models used in traditional theories of financial markets). We show that, within this framework, we can reproduce unifractal scaling with respect to three well‐known power laws relating (i) moments of the absolute price change to the time‐scale over which they are measured, (ii) magnitude of returns with respect to their probability and (iii) the autocorrelation of absolute returns with respect to lag. In contrast to previous studies, we systematically analyse all three power laws simultaneously using the same underlying model by making observations at different time‐scales and higher moments. We show that the first two scaling laws are remarkably robust to the time‐scale over which observations are made, irrespective of the model configuration. However, in contrast to previous studies, we show that herding may explain why long memory is observed at all frequencies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subsistence Response to Market Shocks

Microeconomic models posit that transaction costs isolate subsistence producers from output market shocks. We integrate microeconomic models of many heterogeneous households into a general equilibrium model and show that supply on subsistence farms may respond, in apparently perverse ways, to changes in output market prices. Price shocks in markets for staple goods are transmitted to subsistence producers through interactions in factor markets. In the case presented, a decrease in the market price of maize reduces wages and land rents, stimulating maize production by subsistence households; however, real incomes of subsistence households fall.     

Widening the ‘representation gap'? The implications of the ‘lobbying act’ for worker representation in the UK

The Transparency of Lobbying, Non‐Party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Act 2014 (the ‘Lobbying Act’) imposes tight restrictions on the campaigning and lobbying activities of civil society organisations in the UK, diminishing their capacity to represent the interests of working people and thus likely compounding the ‘representation gap’ within British workplaces. Along with austerity measures and employment law reforms, the legislation exemplifies the UK government's attempts to shift the balance of power further towards employers.     

Individual customers' use and integration of resources: Empirical findings and organizational implications in the context of value co-creation

This article addresses the call for empirical work to contribute to the ongoing critique of service-dominant (S-D) logic, and for an assessment of its potential reach to practitioners. It examines the appropriateness of a model of the resource-based view of consumers in an organizational context — the British Library (BL) — and concludes that the model can be adapted to include individual customers with varying motivations (personal/business) for using the BL's services. A detailed analysis of individual customer's operant resources (enabled through access to 565 messages posted to a BL user support forum) provided a different lens through which the organization could consider strategies to support value co-creation. The outcomes, from a collaborative research process, with executives and senior managers of BL, suggest that a sub-division of customer operant resources into physical, cultural and social has empirical support and managerial relevance, and that a focus on individual customer resources can provide insights into how to manage co-creation of value.     

Biases in option prices : Evidence from the foreign currency option market

This paper examines a European call model of option pricing over a data set which does not suffer from the early exercise problems that have plagued earlier studies of call options on common stocks. We specifically examine a data set of American call prices on spot foreign exchange for which it is plausible to apply an adjusted version of the Garman-Kohlhagen (1983) and Grabbe (1983) European call option model. We make adjustments for interest rate risk and find that the model is nearly unbiased in the valuation of foreign currency options. We conclude that the Geske-Roll (1984) conjecture about dividend uncertainty creating biases in stock option prices holds analogously in the foreign currency option market. Interest rate differential risk (analogous to risky dividends) thus appears to be an important element in the valuation of foreign currency options.     

Can Pre-recorded Evidence Raise Conviction Rates in Cases of Domestic Violence?

This paper explores the association between pre-recorded evidence and court outcomes in cases of domestic violence. Net of controls and time fixed effects, we find that cases with pre-recorded evidence are 3.4 percentage points more likely to result in a conviction. This increase occurs through three channels: a 5.6 percentage point increase in the probability of a conviction among (the one in four) cases that proceed to a defended hearing; a 2.4 percentage point increase in the probability of a guilty plea; and, a 2.4 percentage point decrease in the probability that the prosecution withdraws their case.