Best project management and systems engineering practices in the preacquisition phase for federal intelligence and defense agencies

The analysis of several government defense and intelligence agency large‐scale acquisition programs that experienced significant cost and schedule growth shows that several critical factors need to be addressed in the preacquisition phase of the acquisition cycle. These include overzealous advocacy, technology readiness levels, life‐cycle cost, schedule details, requirements maturity, acquisition and contract strategy, program office personnel tenure and experience, risk management, systems engineering, and trade studies. The results of this study—which incorporated data from industry responses, government and industry executive interviews, numerous studies, and reports—indicate that early preacquisition activities executed in a rigorous fashion can significantly reduce the risk of cost and schedule growth. In this paper, the root causes of the cost and schedule growth are discussed as well as techniques and alternatives to improve program performance.     

Consumer knowledge and meat consumption at home and away from home

We investigate the roles of consumer knowledge and sociodemographic factors in the consumption of meat products at home and away from home. Censored dependent variables and endogenous dietary knowledge are accommodated by developing and estimating a simultaneous-equations system. Results suggest endogeneity of knowledge and support the system approach to demand functions for meat products. Dietary knowledge decreases consumption of beef and pork at home and away from home but does not affect poultry or fish consumption in either location. Men eat more meat and fish than women, meat consumption declines with age, and regional and racial/ethnic differences are present.     

The pricing of callable preferred stock

In this study, the authors use both the Black/Scholes European option model and the Barone-Adesi/Whaley American option model to estimate call option values implicit in seasoned callable preferred stock issues. Consistent with the finding that call features increase bond yields, a significant relationship is found between estimated option values and discounts of these securities’ market prices from their estimated income values. However, the size of the discount is only a fraction of what would be predicted by the American option model. Specifically, the market does not appear to take the “early exercise premium” into account. Furthermore, this discount seems to be isolated to in-the-money call features that have evolved to their final call price. Thus, incorporation of a call feature into a security’s indentures, with a deferment period and an initial premium call price, appears to represent a pure gain for the issuing corporation.     

Some comments on the possibility of “Methodological indeterminacy”

This article is an attempt to analyze the implications for research in the human sciences of the topic of “indeterminacy”. Reviewing an aspect of the issue from the philosophy of social science, the author argues that the debates at the philosophical level often overlook or underestimate the importance of methodological approaches. While the philosophical issue of indeterminacy remains a vexing problem in the social sciences since it was raised by Quine, the article argues that at least a partial resolution of the issue is possible if it is viewed within the context if differing methodological approaches.     

Advanced Industrial Economics,by Stephen Martin

The author presents a simple proof of a property of the method of least squares variously known as the FWL, the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell, the Frisch-Waugh, or the decomposition theorem.     

Lies, damned lies, and political campaigns

Despite a pervasive presence in politics, lying has not traditionally played a role in formal models of elections. In this paper we develop a model that allows candidates in the campaign stage to misrepresent their policy intentions if elected to office, and in which the willingness to lie varies across candidates. We find that candidates more willing to lie are favored, but that this advantage is limited by the electoral mechanism and to such an extent that more honest candidates win a significant fraction of elections. Most notably, the possibility that some candidates lie more than others affects the behavior of all candidates, changing the nature of political campaigns in an empirically consistent manner. This effect also implies that misleading conclusions will be drawn if homogeneous candidate honesty is assumed.     

Consumer responsiveness to price differentials: A case for insurance industry deregulation

Proponents of deregulation have suggested that several industries should lose their antitrust exemptions and operate within a competitive atmosphere. An important assumption underlying deregulation arguments is that consumers will respond to price differentials in a manner that encourages price competition among supplier firms. This assumption is of special concern in the regulated fields of property and liability insurance. The intangibility of these products, the relatively long-term purchase commitments, and the intimate relationships between insurance and consumers' perceptions of risk raise substantial questions concerning individuals' reactions to price competition. In this study the amount of annual premium savings required to switch companies and the relationships between consumer characteristics and intended switching behavior were examined. The results suggest that a substantial segment of insurance buyers would change firms given modest price reductions. The size of this segment, along with the attitudinal and demographic characteristics of this group, indicates that price competition is a viable strategy in a deregulated insurance industry.     

Housing Tenure Choice in Australia and the United States: Impacts of Alternative Subsidy Policies

This article compares the homeownership rates of young households in Australia and the United States and evaluates the impacts of the two countries' different approaches to subsidizing homeownership. Since about 1950, Australia's rate of homeownership has consistently been higher than that of the United States. The homeownership rate for young adults is also significantly higher in Australia. While the United States allows mortgage interest and property taxes to be deducted from income for tax purposes, Australia has provided cash subsidies for down payments and mortgage payments. We conclude that differences in housing costs and household characteristics do not explain differences in ownership rates. We also conclude that differences in subsidy policies have only a minor impact on ownership rates.     

Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns

This paper presents a new pattern in the cross-section of expected stock returns. Stocks tend to have relatively high (or low) returns every year in the same calendar month. We recognize the annual cross-sectional autocorrelation pattern documented in Jegadeesh [1990. Evidence of predictable behavior of security returns. Journal of Finance 45, 881–898] at lags of 12, 24, and 36 months as part of a general pattern that lasts up to 20 annual lags, superimposed on the general momentum/reversal patterns. This pattern explains an economically and statistically significant magnitude of the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns. Volume and volatility exhibit similar seasonal patterns but they do not explain the seasonality in returns. The pattern is independent of size, industry, earnings announcements, dividends, and fiscal year. The results are consistent with the existence of a persistent seasonal effect in stock returns.