The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.     

Changes in accounting estimates: An update of priors or an earnings management strategy of “last resort”?

Evidence from prior research is mixed about whether accounting estimate changes are strategically motivated, on average, or whether they reflect new or updated information. To interpret this difference, we investigate, by category of material changes in accounting estimates, the association between estimate changes and subsequent restatements. We also explore the determinants of both income-increasing and income-decreasing estimate changes for different categories of estimate changes. We find that the motivations for and the determinants of estimate changes depend on the type of change and on whether the changes in estimates are income-increasing or income-decreasing. Overall, we conclude that when companies are motivated to bias earnings and they cannot do so by manipulating other within generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) accruals, they sometimes resort to using estimate changes. Our more detailed investigation of estimate changes at the account level suggests a more nuanced view of the determinants of changes in accounting estimates. We develop a more complete model of the determinants of changes in accounting estimates than those used in this emerging literature, which should be of interest to accounting academics, regulators, audit practitioners and audit committee members.     

Financial development and the effect of cross-border bank flows on house prices

We analyze the role of financial development as a buffer to diminish the effect of cross-border bank flows shocks on house prices across 38 countries. In less financially developed countries, the observed response is markedly positive. As development increases, the response is tempered and becomes less important. Cross-border bank flows shocks are important in explaining the historical dynamics of house prices in financially less developed countries, while monetary policy shocks are key in the most financially developed markets. Heterogeneity in responses within each level of financial development is associated with levels of maximum loan-to-value ratios and a ratio of cross-border bank inflows over total liabilities abroad.     

The economics of drought: A review of impacts and costs

Although a growing body of literature studies drought impacts, papers providing a comprehensive review of drought's social and economic impacts are scarce. This paper fills this gap by exploring the consequences of drought on societies based on research findings in Australia—a large country used to experiencing severe droughts. To do this, we propose a framework to categorise drought impacts in three dimensions: individuals/households (including health), productive sectors and system (including economic and ecosystem) impacts. The framework then guides a systematic literature review and discussion of studies looking at diverse drought impacts and their related costs. By analysing and discussing the findings from this literature, we emphasise different policy considerations, empirical challenges and research needs to support robust analysis and estimates of the true cost of droughts. We conclude by proposing an expanded framework to identify drought impacts and a discussion of the implications of the review for policy development.     

Theorising labour unrest and trade unionism in the platform economy

The article develops a novel conceptualisation of labour unrest and trade unionism in the platform economy, extending current understandings in two ways. First, we situate platform work historically, in the longue durée of paid work under capitalism. Secondly, we introduce a consideration of social structure into debates on union practices often framed in terms of agency. Building on Silver and the Webbs, we highlight the importance in platform work of associational power over structural power; legal enactment over collective bargaining; and geographical over workplace unionism. While mainly a theoretical article, we draw on empirical evidence from research into platform work over five years, comprising interviews, case study, observation and documentary analysis. We conclude that platform labour unrest and unionism bear marked similarities with 19th century forms rather than the 20th century models that often dominate industrial relations perspectives. Consequently, unions organising platform workers should consider adapting their approach accordingly.     

New social relations of digital technology and the future of work: Beyond technological determinism

This introduction sets out the context for the Special Issue and offers an in-depth reflection on key themes addressed by our contributors. The Special Issue aims to place the social relations of production at the centre of debates about technology and the future of work, and create space for greater critical reflection on what it means to go ‘beyond technological determinism’. We identify ways in which aspects of technological determinism continue to influence debates on technology, the labour process and industrial relations, despite efforts to reject it. We argue that this influence is manifested in some persistent problems within the literature including overly rigid periodisations (such as ‘platform capitalism’), a narrow conceptual repertoire (which reifies notions like ‘algorithmic control’) and a constricted empirical focus. We elucidate the value of a social shaping of technology (SST) approach to overcome these challenges and provide a brief overview of the articles contained within the issue.     

Determinants of financial worry

Grounded in the transactional stress-coping theory and the Tallis and Eysenck (1994) model of nonpathological worry, the present study sought to advance the conceptual and empirical understanding of financial worry (FW). We positioned objective financial stressors (OFS), subjective financial stressors (SFS), and coping resources as key variables in understanding the determinants of financial worry (FW). The cross-sectional data consisted of responses from a representative sample of 19,385 adults, aged 18 and older, drawn from a large U.S. survey. Hierarchical linear regression results revealed that OFS, SFS, household income, and financial capability (FC) are all key determinants of FW. Furthermore, the results revealed adverse effects of OFS and SFS on FW. These effects were moderated by household income, FC, age, and gender. Implications for future research, employers, practitioners, and policymakers are discussed.