Baywatch: Two approaches to measure the effects of blocking access to The Pirate Bay

In the fight against unauthorised sharing of copyright protected material, Dutch Internet Service Providers have been summoned by courts to block their subscribers' access to The Pirate Bay and related sites. This paper studies the effectiveness of this approach towards online copyright enforcement, using both a consumer survey and a newly developed non-infringing technology for BitTorrent monitoring. While a small group of respondents download less from illegal sources or claim to have stopped doing so, no impact is found on the percentage of the Dutch population downloading from illegal sources. Slight changes are found on the distribution of Dutch peers, but these seem related to the awareness raised by blocking rather than the blocking itself.     

Rationalizing forecast inefficiency

We show analysts’ own earnings forecasts predict error in their own forecasts of earnings at other horizons, which we argue provides a measure of the extent to which analysts inefficiently use information. We construct our measure by exploiting two sources of variation in analysts’ incentives: (i) more recent forecasts have greater salience at the time of the earnings release so accuracy incentives are higher (lower) at shorter (longer) forecast horizons and (ii) analysts have greater incentives for optimism (pessimism) at longer (shorter) horizons. Consistent with these incentives affecting the incorporation of information into forecasts, we document (i) current year forecasts underweight (overweight) information in shorter (longer) horizon forecasts and (ii) the mis-weighting is more pronounced when recent news is negative—when analysts have greater (weaker) incentives to incorporate the news into shorter (longer) horizon forecasts. Finally, returns tests suggest that forecasts adjusted for the inefficiency we document better represent market expectations of earnings.

     

Exploring how consumers cope with online behavioral advertising

This study explores how consumers cope with a computer technology-driven persuasion tactic called online behavioral advertising (OBA). By tracking consumers’ online behaviors, OBA delivers highly tailored advertising messages to individual consumers, giving rise to serious privacy concerns due to their covert nature. Integrating the persuasion knowledge model and the protection motivation theory, we employed a survey method (N = 442) to examine how consumers cope with OBA based on their persuasion knowledge, cognitive appraisal, and cognitive processing variables. The results reveal that persuasion knowledge was indirectly associated with coping behavior of ad avoidance throughout cognitive appraisal process (perceived risks; perceived benefits; self-efficacy). Privacy concerns partially mediated such associations with ad avoidance. Interestingly, cognitive processing variables (reactance; perceived personalization) were significantly associated with ad avoidance without being related to persuasion knowledge. The implications for theoretical, managerial, and social contributions are discussed.     

Matching and semi-parametric IV estimation, a distance-based measure of migration, and the wages of young men

Our paper estimates the effect of US internal migration on wage growth for young men between their first and second job. Our analysis of migration extends previous research by: (i) exploiting the distance-based measures of migration in the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979 (NLSY79); (ii) allowing the effect of migration to differ by schooling level and (iii) using propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) for movers and (iv) using local average treatment effect (LATE) estimators with covariates to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) and ATET for compliers.We believe the Conditional Independence Assumption (CIA) is reasonable for our matching estimators since the NLSY79 provides a relatively rich array of variables on which to match. Our matching methods are based on local linear, local cubic, and local linear ridge regressions. Local linear and local ridge regression matching produce relatively similar point estimates and standard errors, while local cubic regression matching badly over-fits the data and provides very noisy estimates.We use the bootstrap to calculate standard errors. Since the validity of the bootstrap has not been investigated for the matching estimators we use, and has been shown to be invalid for nearest neighbor matching estimators, we conduct a Monte Carlo study on the appropriateness of using the bootstrap to calculate standard errors for local linear regression matching. The data generating processes in our Monte Carlo study are relatively rich and calibrated to match our empirical models or to test the sensitivity of our results to the choice of parameter values. The estimated standard errors from the bootstrap are very close to those from the Monte Carlo experiments, which lends support to our using the bootstrap to calculate standard errors in our setting.From the matching estimators we find a significant positive effect of migration on the wage growth of college graduates, and a marginally significant negative effect for high school dropouts. We do not find any significant effects for other educational groups or for the overall sample. Our results are generally robust to changes in the model specification and changes in our distance-based measure of migration. We find that better data matters; if we use a measure of migration based on moving across county lines, we overstate the number of moves, while if we use a measure based on moving across state lines, we understate the number of moves. Further, using either the county or state measures leads to much less precise estimates.We also consider semi-parametric LATE estimators with covariates (Frölich 2007), using two sets of instrumental variables. We precisely estimate the proportion of compliers in our data, but because we have a small number of compliers, we cannot obtain precise LATE estimates.     

Tourists' perception of health tourism before and after COVID-19

Health tourism has received increasing attention from academic researchers from a global perspective. Although mainland China (hereafter referred to as “China”) has long been recognized as a health tourism destination, its health tourism development is still in its infancy stage. Hence, to minimize the aforementioned gap, the present study explored the perception of health tourism and effective health tourism promotion methods from the perspective of tourists before and after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The major findings of this study showed that tourists perceived wellness tourism and medical tourism as critical activities/components after the COVID-19 pandemic.     

An Investigation of Gen-Y's Online Hotel Information Search: The Case of Hong Kong

The Internet has made searching for hotel room information and making online reservations common practices among hotel guests. Despite constantly changing consumer behavior and widespread application of online hotel information sources, limited studies have been conducted to examine the online sources used frequently by customers and the related attributes of such sources. As such, drawing from an online questionnaire survey with 205 respondents, findings in this study indicate that there are no socio-demographic effects on future purchase intention of Generation (Gen) Y travelers. Moreover, websites of suppliers (e.g. official websites of hotels), travel intermediaries (e.g. Hotels.com), and social media (e.g. TripAdvisor) are the three major types of websites used by Gen Y hotel guests. Travel intermediary websites are often used to search for hotel information, whereas social media websites are used to make reservations. Based on these findings, implications for hotel managers are discussed.     

Internet media personality: scale development and advertising implications

This study explores the personality of Internet media and develops a multidimensional measurement scale to assess personality across diverse entities, including social networking sites, search engines, portals, and shopping sites. Through a series of qualitative and quantitative methods, including exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis, the present study identifies a set of 30 personality traits that represent five unique dimensions of Internet media personality: Intelligent, Amusing, Convenient, Sociable, and Confusing. This study found that different pairs of brand and Internet media personality dimensions yield different effects on attitude toward advertising brands. Practical implications for marketers and advertisers, as well as theoretical implications for advertising researchers, are discussed.     

Knowledge Flows Between Advertising and Other Disciplines: A Social Exchange Perspective

Knowledge flows between advertising and other academic disciplines are examined to identify the structure of scientific knowledge, the extent of social exchange and the scientific status of the field. Bibliometric analysis is used to identify who is citing our research and who we cited. Cocitation patterns for the leading advertising journals (Journal of Advertising [JA], Journal of Advertising Research [JAR], International Journal of Advertising [IJA], Journal of Interactive Advertising [JIA], and Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising [JCIRA]) and the top 50 citing and cited journals with citation relationships from 2005 to 2014 were examined. Findings revealed that advertising is citing advertising scholarship the most, followed by marketing, consumer research, psychology, and communication. This suggests a “maturing field” where scholars look within the discipline's body of knowledge. In turn, advertising research is cited by advertising, marketing, business (general), communication, and psychology. The overall citing-to-cited ratio suggests that advertising is more a “receiver” than “provider” of knowledge to other disciplines; however, there is variation across the advertising journals. The positioning of advertising journals in the larger disciplinary framework shows close relationships to consumer research and interactive communication. The most common focus among the top-cited articles is digital media, with few articles focusing on traditional advertising. The implications of our findings for the field of advertising are discussed.