Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis

Some empirical evidence suggests that the expected real interest and expected inflation rates are negatively correlated. This hypothesis of negative correlation is sometimes known as the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis. In this article we reinvestigate this negative relation from a long‐term point of view using cointegration analysis. The data on the historical interest rate on T‐bills and the inflation rate indicate that the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis does not hold in the long run for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. We also obtain similar results using the real interest rate on index‐linked gilt traded in the United Kingdom.     

Commodity currencies

This paper looks at real exchange rate behavior by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the US dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical models. However, after controlling for commodity price shocks, there is still a purchasing power parity puzzle in the residual. The results here are relevant to developing commodity-exporting countries as they liberalize their capital markets and move towards floating exchange rates.     

Modernization in Mainland China:

A bstract . After 1949, mainland China, a developing socialist country, adopted an inward-looking policy with emphasis on self-reliance and economic independence. However, in their drive for economic reform that began in 1978, mainland China drifted to the new doctrine of "taking self-reliance as the principal means and external assistance as a subsidiary." A version of the two-gap model is constructed to test the hypothesis that both domestic capital accumulation and foreign capital inflows affect economic development in mainland China , the latter being an indicator of modernization. Due to insufficient data, pooled cross-section and time-series data for the period 1984–1986 are employed. The quantitative evidence suggests that foreign capital inflows, instead of domestic capital accumulation, have importantly affected the modernization drive of mainland China. The recent political turmoil in mainland China has slowed down foreign capital inflows which in turn may retard its modernization.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

基于胜任力结构的企业家才能分析

一、企业家才能的相关理论在西方经济学界,人们认为劳动、资本、土地、企业家才能四部分构成了生产要素,在这四种生产要素中企业家才能则是其灵魂性的要素。企业家才能是指企业领导的经营管理和创新能力,包括创新能力、合作精神、敬业精神、竞争意识、冒险精神、自信、判断能力     

民族地区投融资机制的构建与经济可持续发展

金融日益成为现代经济的核心，资本形成对经济增长具有重要作用。民族地区作为一个金融抑制较为严重的地区，在经济社会发展的历史进程中，必须通过投融资机制创新为资本形成创出更为广阔的空间，充分发挥金融对于促进民族地区经济可持续发展的重要作用。     

农村劳动力转移模型:基于中国制度背景的构造

本文在对经典的农村劳动力流动模型进行理论梳理的基础上,引入中国的制度变量,试图构建适合中国制度背景的农村劳动力转移模型,同时,运用经验事实对其作进一步的实证检验,并分析了模型的政策含义。     

“合理期望原则”在WTO“非违法之诉”中的案例研究

“非违法之诉”是WTO争端解决机制中最有特色的内容,但是在实践中往往难以把握,“合理期望原则”作为“非违法之诉”的适用原则对于准确应用“非违法之诉”至关重要。本文拟对WTO争端案例对“合理期望原则”的背景、适用范围、预期等方面问题进行研究,以期对“非违法之诉”的应用有所助益。     

信息不对称条件下的中国零售业营销研究

一、信息不对称条件下中国零售业的营销困难 信息不对称给中国零售业营销带来了困难。那么，这些困难是什么？其具体表现形式又是怎样的呢？让我们逐一考察。     

科技型中小企业立体式激励模式研究

一、科技型中小企业员工的特性分析1.素质特性①职业道德素质。由于知识型员工掌握着公司大量的技术或其他资料和信息,如果职业道德素质很差,对公司会造成很大的危害。因此,科技型中小企业在吸纳人才的时候必然十分注重员工的职业道德素质水平。②人际交流素质。知识型员工大多