The Lawson Boom in the Light of the Crash

Will the‘Lawson Boom’have the same consequences as that of Anthony Barber? Tim Congdon, of Shearson Lehman, argues that the rapid monetary growth of the past years could have serious consequences for inflation, unless the Government takes immediate preventative action.     

U.S. Financial Services Consolidation: The Case of Corporate Credit Unions

This paper estimates a stochastic cost frontier forU.S. corporate credit unions using call report datafor 1992–1997. The results indicate that corporatecredit unions were 91 percent cost efficient, onaverage, over this period and that institutionspassing a larger percentage of their investments toU.S. Central Credit Union are more cost efficient. However, the economic magnitude of estimatedefficiency gains from investment concentration isfound to be modest. We conclude that the currentthree-tier hierarchical structure for the U.S. creditunion industry is likely to endure.     

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical.     

Oil booms and inequality in Iran

We study the response of income inequality to positive per capita oil and gas revenue shocks in Iran. Using historical data from 1973 to 2016 and vector autoregression (VAR) as well as vector error correction (VECM) model‐based impulse‐response functions, we find a positive and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil booms. We also explore possible channels through which oil booms may increase inequality, including private sector credit growth, construction investment, international trade (imports) and real economic output. We find that following an oil boom, higher imports, private sector credit growth, and real economic output can explain the increased income gap to a certain degree in Iran's oil‐based economy. Our analysis can help policymakers evaluate and accommodate the possible positive or negative effects of inequality in Iran resulting from the 2016 lifting of the embargo against the country.     

Measuring fossil resource inequality—A case study for the UK between 1968 and 2000

This paper quantifies fossil resource inequalities amongst income quintiles in the UK between 1968 and 2000. It calculates a resource-based Gini coefficient using an input-output based resource allocation model.The results show that the Gini coefficient for total fossil resource consumption grew by 24% over the time period. By comparison the Gini coefficient for overall household expenditure rose by only 13%. The increase in resource inequality was prompted by the rising demand by high income quintiles for goods and services such as: “fuel and light” (heating and lighting the home), “car use” (private transportation), “recreation”, “travel” and “other services”. The analysis shows further that the Gini coefficient for “direct” fossil resources (“fuel and light” and “car use”) was lower and rose less steeply than the Gini coefficient for fossil resources embodied in other goods and services (indirect fossil resource requirements).Investigation into the drivers behind direct and indirect resource inequalities suggests a number of policy conclusions. Firstly, it is clear that policy initiatives to reduce fossil resource requirements (and the associated climate change impacts) must pay careful attention to distributional differences. Additionally, increased attention needs to be paid to the inequalities associated with indirect fossil resources consumption as well as the more visible direct resource inequalities.     

Giving the consumer the choice: A methodology for Product Ecological Footprint calculation

As global consumption increases we are faced with a major threat; exceeding the Earth's capacity to create new resources and absorb waste. In the present study we develop a self-improving, market-driven process of ecological footprinting of products, proposed as a means to give consumers a real choice in actively monitoring and reducing their ecological impact. We conduct a small scale case study to illustrate first stage calculations. A wider market application of higher accuracy second or third stage calculations changes market information dynamics, as ecological information is internalized for consumers. Potential impacts on purchasing behavior, demand and eco-technological innovation are discussed.