Timing of Mitigation and Technology Availability in Achieving a Low-Carbon World

This paper analyzes the economic and investment implications of a series of climate mitigation scenarios, characterized by different levels of ambition for long-term stabilization goals and transitional pathways. Results indicate that although milder climate objectives can be achieved at moderate costs, stringent stabilization paths, compatible with the 2°C target, might require significant economic resources. Innovation and technology are shown to be able to mitigate, but not structurally alter, this trade-off. Technologies that allow capturing CO₂ from the atmosphere are shown to be important for expanding the feasibility space of stringent climate policies, though only if deployed at a scale which would represent a tremendous challenge. In general, the analysis indicates that the timing of mitigation is an important factor of cost containment, with early action being desirable. It also elaborates on the set of mitigation strategies and policies that would be required to achieve climate protection at maximum efficiency.     

Testing for structural stability of factor augmented forecasting models

Mild factor loading instability, particularly if sufficiently independent across the different constituent variables, does not affect the estimation of the number of factors, nor subsequent estimation of the factors themselves (see e.g.  Stock and Watson (2009)). This result does not hold in the presence of large common breaks in the factor loadings, however. In this case, information criteria overestimate the number of breaks. Additionally, estimated factors are no longer consistent estimators of “true” factors. Hence, various recent research papers in the diffusion index literature focus on testing the constancy of factor loadings. However, forecast failure of factor augmented models can be due to either factor loading instability, regression coefficient instability, or both. To address this issue, we develop a test for the joint hypothesis of structural stability of both factor loadings and factor augmented forecasting model regression coefficients. Our proposed test statistic has a chi-squared limiting distribution, and we are able to establish the first order validity of (block) bootstrap critical values. Empirical evidence is also presented for 11 US macroeconomic indicators.     

Governance for sustainable tourism: a comparison of international and Dutch visions

This study focuses on the role of public authorities in the governance of tourism for sustainable development at national level. Departing from an overview of international recommendations, it analyses whether those recommendations are reflected in the way public authorities influence domestic tourism in the Netherlands. The conclusion is drawn that, currently, the internationally recommended horizontal and vertical coordination of public authorities and their policies is missing. This is largely due to a design approach that follows from neo-liberal principles of governance, as opposed to the sustainability performance of the tourism sector. The paper then discusses the results of a survey carried out to map the extent to which Dutch tourism stakeholders would be in favor of adopting measures to improve coordination. It is concluded that, although there is support for more coordination, there is no converging vision on how specific aspects of it should be best organized. The paper highlights the need for multi-stakeholder debates that should consider the links between governance features and the sustainability performance of tourism.     

Environmental Policy and the International Diffusion of Cleaner Energy Technologies

Technology transfer is an important channel of technological change and sustainable development for countries with less innovative ability than technological leaders. This paper studies whether domestic environmental policies affect the inward technology transfer of cleaner innovation from abroad. We focus specifically on the power sector, for its important role in the decarbonization process, by looking at zero-carbon (renewable) and carbon-saving (efficient fossil) technologies for energy production. Using data on cross-country patent applications, we provide evidence that environmental policy contributes to attracting foreign cleaner technology options to OECD markets but not to non-OECD markets. We show that this is due to the nature of the implemented policy instruments. Market-based approaches positively impact technology transfer to both OECD and non-OECD economies, while non-market based approaches have at best only a weak effect in OECD countries. Domestic environmental policies may provide too weak a signal for foreign innovators in countries off the technological frontier. This calls for a strengthening of policy incentives for technology transfer in light of pressing climate change objectives.     

Public service motivation and public sector employment preference: Comparing Italian and British students

ABSTRACT

Previous research has suggested that an individual’s public service motivation (PSM) is positively linked to a preference for public sector employment. The authors explore this link using a sample of British and Italian undergraduate students. They found a positive relationship between PSM and public sector job preferences among Italian students but not with the British students. The UK has implemented more NPM-style reforms than Italy and this could be impacting on public sector recruitment. Implications for recruitment and retention the public sector are discussed.