A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy

In this paper, we draw on both the consistent specification testing and the predictive ability testing literatures and propose an integrated conditional moment type predictive accuracy test that is similar in spirit to that developed by Bierens (J. Econometr. 20 (1982) 105; Econometrica 58 (1990) 1443) and Bierens and Ploberger (Econometrica 65 (1997) 1129). The test is consistent against generic nonlinear alternatives, and is designed for comparing nested models. One important feature of our approach is that the same loss function is used for in-sample estimation and out-of-sample prediction. In this way, we rule out the possibility that the null model can outperform the nesting generic alternative model. It turns out that the limiting distribution of the ICM type test statistic that we propose is a functional of a Gaussian process with a covariance kernel that reflects both the time series structure of the data as well as the contribution of parameter estimation error. As a consequence, critical values that are data dependent and cannot be directly tabulated. One approach in this case is to obtain critical value upper bounds using the approach of Bierens and Ploberger (Econometrica 65 (1997) 1129). Here, we establish the validity of a conditional p-value method for constructing critical values. The method is similar in spirit to that proposed by Hansen (Econometrica 64 (1996) 413) and Inoue (Econometric Theory 17 (2001) 156), although we additionally account for parameter estimation error. In a series of Monte Carlo experiments, the finite sample properties of three variants of the predictive accuracy test are examined. Our findings suggest that all three variants of the test have good finite sample properties when quadratic loss is specified, even for samples as small as 600 observations. However, non-quadratic loss functions such as linex loss require larger sample sizes (of 1000 observations or more) in order to ensure reasonable finite sample performance.     

Is your open-innovation successful? The mediating role of a firm's organizational and social context

Open firms are not equally successful. This is because, in order to benefit from external sources of knowledge, firms must be able to absorb such knowledge. The paper outlines a firm's context as a set of organizational and social features, which may be considered absorptive capacity antecedents. It explores the mediating role of such antecedents in the relationship – hitherto insufficiently researched – between the degree of openness and innovative performance. The use of a methodology combining both direct interviews and survey of Italian firms has allowed us to confirm the supposed mediating role. We also identify different modes for companies to open up their innovation process and, for each of them, the antecedents that are consistent with choices regarding the degree of openness.     

The (lack of) international harmonization of EU standards: import and export effects in developed versus developing countries

This article studies the effect of the lack of international harmonization in agri-food standards on international trade flows focusing on the European Union (EU). The EU is characterized by high level of protectionism, which makes it an ideal case study. We measure the differences in countries’ level of ‘protectionism’ by applying an index of aggregation of non-tariff measures to data on maximum residue levels on pesticides and veterinary drugs allowed by countries on agri-food products. The restrictiveness of countries standards’ is compared with the one imposed by the Codex Alimentarius, which is considered as non-protectionist. The EU emerges as the most rigorous standards setter. The higher standards imposed by the EU affect in particular imports from developing countries, while it facilitates its exports, irrespective of the level of development and standard restrictiveness set by the importing countries.     

Macroeconomic conditions and well-being: do social interactions matter?

We investigate the role played by social interactions in the transmission of the effects of macroeconomic conditions on well-being. Using survey data for a representative sample of Italian individuals, we find that social interactions play a dual role. On the one hand, the well-being of people who spend more time with their friends or go out more often is less sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations. On the other hand, social interactions are negatively affected by worsening macroeconomic conditions, thus playing a relevant role in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to subjective well-being. More specifically, the negative impact of downturns on the frequency of going out and active participation in associations significantly contributes to the adverse effects of recessions on satisfaction with life and with individual life domains.     

CSR Disclosure Items Used as Fairness Heuristics in the Investment Decision

The growth in demand for corporate social responsibility (CSR) information raises the question of how various CSR disclosure items are used by investors, an important stakeholder group driven by instrumental, moral, and relational motives. Prior research examines the instrumental motive to maximize individual shareholder wealth and the moral motive to actualize personal stewardship interests. We contribute to the literature by examining investors’ relational motive to realize positive stakeholder relationships within and between organizations and communities. The relational motive arises when investors look at a company’s treatment of other stakeholder groups as a heuristic to form a perception of how fairly they will also be treated by that company in the future, and thus invest in the company they perceive as fair. Fair treatment in the future matters to the investor who purchases stock from the company or via the capital markets in exchange for becoming a shareholder and thus a residual claimant of the company. As such, the investor expects future cash flows from holding and/or reselling the stock and expects to be treated fairly by the company in the future. We propose that investors, use as a fairness heuristic, CSR disclosure items—CSR investment level or CSR assurance—that represent the company’s commitment to its stakeholders, and that the resulting fairness perception affects the extent to which the CSR disclosure items influence their investment decision. Using responses from 113 investors in an online experiment, we find that fairness perceptions are higher when CSR investment is above (versus below) the industry average, and that fairness perceptions partially mediate the impact of the CSR investment level on investment amount allocations. We do not find that the presence (versus absence) of CSR assurance is used by investors as a fairness heuristic. Our results are robust to controlling for preferences for financial performance and hence investors’ instrumental motive, and to controlling for individual environmental attitudes, and hence investors’ moral motive. Implications for future research and public policy are discussed.     

The Effects of Current Income Attributes on Nonprofessional Investors’ Say-on-Pay Judgments: Does Fairness Still Matter?

The say-on-pay (SOP) regulation in the Dodd-Frank Act (Public L. no. 111–203, H.R. 4173 2010) requires publicly-traded U.S. firms to hold a nonbinding, advisory shareholder vote on executive compensation. Advocates claim that SOP voting gives shareholders a mechanism to hold managers and boards more accountable. Critics contend that SOP votes may simplistically reflect shareholders’ reactions to the overall value of CEO compensation or the firm’s net income. However, based on prior research, we contend that market participants’ SOP votes are likely to consider current income attributes. For example, the market punishes firms that do not meet or beat benchmarks such as analyst earnings expectations, and that shareholders scrutinize the quality of the income sources of firms that consistently meet/beat analyst expectations. We thus expect that more shareholders will provide ‘agree’ SOP votes for a firm that consistently meets/beats analyst forecasts and does so when net income does not include (rather than includes) nonrecurring gains. Further, we consider whether perceptions about the fairness of CEO compensation play a mediating role in the relationship between the interaction of these two current income attributes and SOP votes. Results from an experiment using evening MBA students as participants indicates that the two current income attributes significantly interact with respect to the percentage of agree SOP votes, and that compensation fairness perceptions fully mediate this relationship. Further, the mediating effect of compensation fairness perceptions is robust to including CEO-level and other determinants found in prior research. We conclude with a discussion of our findings and their implications for public policy and research.     

Is the model “loans‐plus‐savings” better for microfinance in Eastern Europe and Central Asia? A propensity score matching comparison

Microfinance institutions are gradually evolving into multiservice organizations offering not only loans but also savings, and other financial and nonfinancial services. We contribute to the literature aimed at identifying how combining credit with savings affects outreach and sustainability in microfinance institutions (MFIs). We apply the propensity score matching method as well as its augmented dose–response version to compare the performance of loans‐plus‐savings MFIs with that of lending‐only in a sample of 710 observations from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Owing to our unique capital structure data, we control for the use of subsidized capital, which related work ignores while existing evidence points to tradeoffs between subsidies and savings. We find that financial performance and breadth of outreach are positively associated with savings mobilization, while the evidence on depth of outreach points to a possible mission drift.     

The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products

In this article, we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990–2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive margin—number of exported products—or the intensive margin—volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, whereas the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products.