Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing problem of equity-linked annuities and variable annuities under a regimeswitching model when the dynamic of the market value of a reference asset is driven by a generalized geometric Brownian motion model with regime switching. In particular, we assume that regime switching over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite number state space representing economy states. We use the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for fair valuation in the incomplete market setting. The paper is complemented with some numerical examples to highlight the implications of our model on pricing these guarantees.     

中国股市反应偏差的投资者心态模型

在行为金融学理论中,投资者心态模型将投资者的心理偏差当作反应偏差的源泉,但这些投资者心态模型对于发展时间较短、具有区别于成熟市场的独特市场制度和社会环境的中国股票市场而言,存在适用度问题。分析中国股票市场投资者普遍的投机心理等要素,运用改进了的HS模型,根据股票市场的习惯,分别对一个牛市周期和熊市周期进行验证得出,投机心理支配下的机构投资者和个人投资者的相互作用是导致反应偏差的主要原因。     

政府绩效审计供需均衡分析——基于公共产品供需均衡视角

政府绩效审计是一种公共产品,公共产品供需均衡理论影响着绩效审计供给和需求的性质、数量以及均衡过程。实现政府绩效审计供需均衡要依据公共产品供需理论,结合我国政府绩效审计供需状况和存在的具体问题,刺激需求,促进供给,实现二者互动;以动态与变化的眼光分析和考察决定互动的诸多因素,进而构建合理有效的均衡实现机制。     

Optimal insurance in the presence of reinsurance

This paper studies an optimal insurance and reinsurance design problem among three agents: policyholder, insurer, and reinsurer. We assume that the preferences of the parties are given by distortion risk measures, which are equivalent to dual utilities. By maximizing the dual utility of the insurer and jointly solving the optimal insurance and reinsurance contracts, it is found that a layering insurance is optimal, with every layer being borne by one of the three agents. We also show that reinsurance encourages more insurance, and is welfare improving for the economy. Furthermore, it is optimal for the insurer to charge the maximum acceptable insurance premium to the policyholder. This paper also considers three other variants of the optimal insurance/reinsurance models. The first two variants impose a limit on the reinsurance premium so as to prevent insurer to reinsure all its risk. An optimal solution is still layering insurance, though the insurer will have to retain higher risk. Finally, we study the effect of competition by permitting the policyholder to insure its risk with an insurer, a reinsurer, or both. The competition from the reinsurer dampens the price at which an insurer could charge to the policyholder, although the optimal indemnities remain the same as the baseline model. The reinsurer will however not trade with the policyholder in this optimal solution.     

基于产业链视角的中国电气机械制造业优化升级研究

本文基于2002-2015年全国投入产出表和延长表,以及2000-2012年日本投入产出表测算的产业关联和波及效应,从产业链角度对电气机械制造业的优化升级进行了动态分析和比较分析。研究表明：中国电气机械制造业关联产业广泛,产业内关联增强,对国民经济的需求拉动作用强于供给推动作用。但研发投入不足,技术进步迟滞,行业附加值率下降,对需求变化的供给适应能力不足,产值结构、技术结构和市场适应能力有待调整和优化。针对存在的突出问题,提出如下建议：以产业链协同发展为抓手,促进产学研合作,加大研发投入,调整产出的技术结构;以关联产业需求为指向,挖掘内需,调整产出的市场结构;提高产业服务化水平,延长产业链,协调产业链整体发展。     

The microfoundations of open innovation: CEO overconfidence and innovation choices

How to successfully drive open innovation (OI) has been an important issue. However, the existing literature on the determinants of OI mainly focuses on organizational and contingent factors, and the “human side” of it is still not well understood, which also motivates us to explore it more deeply. This paper attempts to link upper echelon theory with OI research using data from a large sample of Chinese listed companies to investigate how the overconfident tendency of the CEO affects his or her preference for different OI modes. At the same time, what role do other top management team (TMT) members play in this process. The results show that overconfident CEOs favor market and organization-oriented OI over technology-oriented OI, and TMT governance can moderate such relationship, that is, as the level of TMT governance increases, the preference of overconfident CEOs for market and organization-oriented OI will be weakened, avoiding the negative effect of excessive adoption of such activities on firm performance. By focusing on the human side of OI, this paper adds to the literature on the impact of strategic leadership, namely the influence of key individual CEO and other executives within the organization on OI management, which is also a response to the emphasis that more attention should be paid to the microfoundations of OI in the future.     

税收缺口测算的国际实践——以欧盟与美国为例

本文对国际上目前采用的税收缺口测算的主要方法,即自上而下法和自下而上法做了介绍,并系统比较了两类方法的适用环境和各自的优劣,同时分别给出了国际上用这两类方法测算的两个具体实例,最后,总结了国外税收缺口测算实践的特点,并给出了我国目前进行税收缺口测算的几点建议。     

网络舆情对基层税务机关的影响及应对

本文首先分析了税收网络舆情与网络舆情危机的特点,进而对基层税务机关对网络舆情的认识误区以及易引发网络舆情危机的风险点进行了阐述,最后,对基层税务机关如何应对网络舆情危机提出了建议。     

欧盟成员国金融排斥水平及破解:比较与借鉴

利用欧洲晴雨表数据对欧盟成员国金融排斥状况作了比较,发现一国经济发展水平和收入分配状况与其金融排斥程度紧密相关。通过梳理金融排斥成因、影响及破解金融排斥的经验,并根据六维模型描述了当前我国存在的金融排斥困境,本文认为加强对金融排斥状况的调查研究,处理好政策引导和市场基础性作用、经济增长与收入分配、金融公平与金融效率、金融机构盈利诉求与社会责任四方面关系并最终构建包容性的金融体系有助于解决我国金融排斥问题。