Market penetration by entry-exit dynamics

A generic characterization of the dynamics of market penetration by technological artifacts is here formulated on the basis of entry rate and exit rate considerations. It is shown that low-order reductions lead to the biologically based logistic dynamic, which—by empirical fit—has been found to be in very good agreement with numerous specific cases. In addition to the derivational justification of the logistic for artifact market penetration, we find that but a small number of parameters are involved in these autonomous characterizations suggesting therefore that market penetration may well be reduced to a similarly small number of dominant operative processes. Some nonautonomous extensions are also discussed.     

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY RESPONSE: PADDY IN SRI LANKA

An aggregate analysis of supply response in the paddy (rice) sector of Sri Lanka during 1952-87 is conducted to identify the impact of pricing policy, irrigation programmes, institutional credit and concessional sales on area, yield and overall supply. The focus of the estimation procedure is the selection of an appropriate functional form for regressions and on the price variable that best represents the price to which producers respond in making area and yield decisions. In the case of both area and yield, the econometric criteria favour the acceptance of log-linear equations with the ratio of the guaranteed price of paddy to fertiliser price. On the basis of overall supply elasticity estimates, it is concluded that while pricing policy, irrigation programmes and institutional credit provide incentives to the expansion of paddy production, concessional sales of rice act as a disincentive.     

METHODS OF ESTIMATING HOUSEHOLD EQUIVALENCE SCALES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

This paper presents empirical evidence regarding key assumptions of the Rothbarth and Barten methods of constructing household equivalence scales. The assumption of separability in the Rothbarth model is investigated by examining the implied intra-household allocation of specific goods and by examining studies of economies of scale in household consumption. The assumption of the exogeneity of the distribution parameters in the Barten model is related to the results of empirical studies of clothing expenditures. This paper suggests that empirical evidence fails to support the assumptions maintained in these theoretically sophisticated models of household income equivalence.     

试论我国出口市场多元化战略实施

出口市场多元化应包括四个方面的内涵:首先,市场多元化是指区域多元化,即出口市场应全方位、多角度分布于世界各地,而不仅仅聚集于少数市场;其次是指商品多元化,因为商品是市场的核心内容,一国对外贸易,不单单是点多、面广,而且商品品种、规格、档次等都要多样化,才能符合不同消费层次的需求;第三,出口市场多元化应包括经营手段的多样化,即开拓海外市场要采取灵活多变的方式、方法。     

双旋Y切石英振子厚度模式的频温特性的研究

本文利用描述固体中弹性声波的克里斯托费尔方程,建立了双旋Y切石英振子厚度模式的频温特性分析方法,并编制了相应的计算机程序。该程序可给出双旋Y切石英振子在任意切角(ф_3ф_1)下的厚度模(a、b、c模)的频率温度特性曲线。文中给出了单旋AT切、BT切(b模)、双旋SC切(b、c模)、FC切、IT切、LC切、NL_1切、NL_2切、AK切等各已知切型的频温特性曲线。对石英谐振器的切角灵敏度和切角误差进行了分析。     

Uniform Commercial Policy, Illegal Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Analysis

Countries on fixed exchange rates sometimes use uniform tariffcum subsidy (UTCS) schemes as a way of achieving a real depreciationwithout disturbing the nominal exchange rate. A potential drawbackof this policy in relation to an across-the-board devaluationis that a UTCS scheme provides incentives for illegal trade.Using an optimizing model with currency convertibility and illegaltrade. I find that welfare is lower under a UTCS scheme thanunder a corresponding across-the-board devaluation and thatin some cases the real exchange rate actually appreciates inresponse to an increase in the UTCS rate.     

A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain

This paper considers the extent to which price and income proxy variables help in forecasting tourist demand in Spain. Contrary to some recent studies, we found that the inputs' contribution in terms of fitting and forecasting is nil when compared with alternative univariate models. Whether these findings are the results of the restrictions embedded in building the proxy inputs or in a poor specification of the dynamics of these models remains to be seen. We also contend that when dealing with medium, long-term forecasting comparisons, the use of the traditional aggregate accuracy measures like RMSE and MAPE help very little in discriminating among competing models. In these situations, predicted annual growth rates may be a better alternative.