A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain

This paper considers the extent to which price and income proxy variables help in forecasting tourist demand in Spain. Contrary to some recent studies, we found that the inputs' contribution in terms of fitting and forecasting is nil when compared with alternative univariate models. Whether these findings are the results of the restrictions embedded in building the proxy inputs or in a poor specification of the dynamics of these models remains to be seen. We also contend that when dealing with medium, long-term forecasting comparisons, the use of the traditional aggregate accuracy measures like RMSE and MAPE help very little in discriminating among competing models. In these situations, predicted annual growth rates may be a better alternative.     

Changes in REIT Liquidity 1990–1994: Evidence from Intra-day Transactions

This study uses data on intra-day transactions to analyze whether real estate investment (REIT) liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread changed from 1990 to 1994, a period during which the industry's market capitalization increased from $8.7 billion to $45 billion. REIT percentage spreads (spread as percentage of share price) narrowed significantly, primarily attributable to higher share prices rather than narrower dollar-value spreads. An empirical model is used to analyze the determinants of percentage spreads. Return variance and share price, not market capitalization are found to be the primary determinants of percentage spreads in both periods. This suggests that the liquidity of REIT securities is similar to that of non-REIT securities with similar prices and return variance. In addition, percentage spreads are wider for REITs trading on the NASDAQ.     

Optimal Generic Advertising with a Rationed Related Good: The Case of Canadian Beef and Chicken Markets

An optimal advertising rule is derived for a good sold in an open market (beef) when a related substitute good (chicken) is production rationed and whose imports are subject to trade restrictions. Such a rule is developed using a multi-market equilibrium displacement model that reflects demand interrelatedness, open trade of the advertised good (beef), with rationed production and restricted trade of the related good (chicken). The optimal rule nests earlier optimal advertising rules under a variety of conditions. Results underscore the importance of accounting for cross-product advertising effects. When these effects are present (absent), the optimal generic beef advertising intensity in Canada is shown to fall (rise) with elimination of supply management in Canada's chicken sector.
L'auteur dérive une règie sur l'optimisation de la publicité pour un produit vendu sur un marché libre (bœuf) en présence d'un produit de substitution rationné dont on restreint les importations. Pour parvenir à une telle règie, l'auteur a utilisé un modèle de déplacement du point d'équilibre sur un marché multiple illustrant les liens entre la demande des produits concernés, le libre-échange du produit faisant l'objet de la publicité (bœuf) et la restriction de la production et des importations du produit apparenté (poulet). La règie d'optimisation englobe les règles antérieures sur l'optimisation de la publicité dans diverses situations. Les résultats soulignent qu'il est important de prendre en compte les retombées de la publicité sur les autres produits. Au Canada, en présence (absence) de telles retombées, le degré optimal de publicité générique sur le bœuf diminue (augmente) avec l'abolition de la gestion de l'offre de poulet.     

Assessing academic department efficiency at a public university

The assessment of public universities has gained importance because of the demands from such state government bodies as the executive and the legislature. Public universities are increasingly being asked to account for how efficiently they have used diminishing state financial resources. Administrators thus have the responsibility of ensuring that the university's financial, human, and physical resources are allocated to academic departments in a manner that enhances the institution's efficiency. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is proposed for evaluating the efficiency of academic departments at a public university. DEA provides a single measure of efficiency for each academic unit. It also identifies the causes behind the inefficiencies exhibited by poor performing units, as well as the changes that these units need to make in order to improve their efficiencies. Its usefulness as a planning tool is also discussed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国市场经济的历史起点与发展阶段的选择

国际上市场经济经历了萌芽阶段、初级阶段、发展阶段、发达阶段,各阶段的依据是不同生产力性质、不同生产关系形式以及商品生产和商品交换的不同水平.我国市场经济的历史起点应是三个:一是从计划经济开始向市场经济转化,二是从自然经济向商品经济转化,三是从小商品经济(或简单商品经济)向大商品经济或市场经济转化.我国市场经济发展阶段的战略选择,应该是分类定位和分类发展,采取多层次多样化的市场经济的发展阶段.     

Government Policy and the Evolution of the Market for Dutch Daily Newspapers

This paper investigates whether governments can change market structures through interventions. We study the effects of four political events over the life cycle of the market for daily newspapers in the Netherlands. We find that policy measures meant to lower entry barriers in an expanding industry created new entry and increased survival chances for potential entrants and incumbent newspapers. Exit barrier enhancing policies to reduce concentration tendencies have not been successful.