Issues in the estimation and application of latent structure models of choice

Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future.     

Search and Liquidity in Single-Family Housing

A two-stage least squares model of housing prices is estimated with data collected from 3358 single-family home transactions. The results provide evidence for an optimal marketing period and indicate that a liquidity premium is priced in single-family home sales. Consistent with the hypothesis derived from economic search models, the model shows higher selling prices for houses having longer expected marketing periods. The model also shows a price premium for houses that sell faster than expectations. This effect supports the concept that liquidity is a value-enhancing characteristic.     

The Quality of Smallholder Coffee in South Sumatra: The Production of Low-Quality Coffee as a Response to World Demand 1

Improving the quality of Indonesia's coffee exports has been a priority of government and the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters for some years. Efforts to achieve this objective have, however, been hampered by misconceptions about the reasons why coffee producers and traders at each point in the marketing network do not deliver a higher quality product. The research reported here shows that price premia for higher quality coffee are not large enough to encourage greater quality enhancement. The world market for low to medium grades, used in the production of instant coffee, is much larger than that for high-quality coffee, and this preference is transmitted in the form of low incentives to improve the product. Failure to understand this has led to government policies which at best do not solve the quality problem and at worst exacerbate it.     

ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT AND THE INTERPRETATION OF STRATEGIC ISSUES: A NOTE ON CEOS’ INTERPRETATIONS OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT*

This paper explores the relationship between organizational context and the interpretation of strategic issues by examining the hypothesis that CEOs' interpretations of foreign investment in the USA are influenced by the organizational context in which they are embedded. Three aspects of organizational context - the global business experience of the firm; the firm's level of organizational inertia (as represented by firm age and size); and the resources available for responding - are examined as predictors of CEOs' perceptions of foreign investment as a threat or an opportunity. Analysis of data from 320 organizations, controlled by industry, shows that global business experience, firm size, and perceived capability are significant predictors of the perception of threat and opportunity. the discussion addresses the implications of these findings for future research on issue interpretation and organizational context.     

Rafting the River: A Risk Management Expert System for Dynamic Problem Solving

Commercial project management systems focus on preproject planning and after-the-fact documentation, but not on the dynamic problem solving required in day-to-day project management. Yet the need for risk-oriented management is clear. To understand and control project risks, managers must be able to identify problems as they occur, immediately assess their downstream impacts, and plan a course of action. The Advanced Risk Management System (ARMS) is a prototype system built to address the issues of identifying, analyzing, prioritizing, monitoring, and controlling project risk. ARMS uses expert systems, data base management, and hypermedia technologies to capture and classify project schedule problems, to determine their semantic impacts to future activities, and to alert appropriate project personnel in advance of problem occurrence.     

Antecedents of private label attitude and national brand promotion attitude: similarities and differences

A model that addresses the similarities and differences in conceptual antecedents of attitudes toward private label grocery products and national brand promotions is proposed and tested. The proposed model is tested using a sample of 300 consumers who were recruited from grocery stores, provided behavioral data from sales receipts of their shopping trip, and responded to a survey that contained multi-item construct measures. We predict and find in the study that both price and nonprice related constructs impact both private label attitude and national brand promotion attitude, but the directionality and strength of several of these relationships differ. Implications of these findings for retailers and national manufacturers are discussed.     

A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations

This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations.