Opportunity recognition and SME performance: the mediating effect of business model innovation

Opportunity recognition is vital for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), but SMEs face challenges in capturing recognized opportunities. Given that opportunity recognition does not automatically lead to higher SME performance and that SMEs need to take appropriate actions to exploit recognized opportunities to achieve better performance, it is imperative to explore the mediators that enable SMEs to translate opportunity recognition into higher performance. This study proposes that business model innovation may be a key conduit through which opportunity recognition affects SME performance. Based on a dataset of 155 SMEs, we find that the positive relationship between opportunity recognition and SME performance is mediated by business model innovation. These findings not only aid SMEs in accomplishing the performance effect of opportunity recognition, but also provide some insights into the implications of business model innovation.     

The Price Discovery Puzzle in Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions for Different Contracts

The People's Bank of China (PBC) lifted yuan trading restrictions in July of 2010 that led to offshore yuan spot trading in Hong Kong. Based on causality analyses, we find that price discovery is absent between the onshore and offshore spot markets. However, we document the presence of price discovery between onshore spot and offshore nondeliverable forward (NDF) rates. These seemingly inconsistent results present a puzzle wherein one offshore market appears to be more informationally integrated with the onshore market than another. We conclude that price discovery differences in the offshore markets stem from the offshore spot and forward contracts tracking different aspects of yuan rates (e.g., the offshore nondeliverable rate tracks onshore spot rates whereas the offshore spot rate tracks onshore interest rates). Moreover, the introduction of offshore spot trading in Hong Kong has led to an increase in cross‐market price discovery between onshore spot and offshore NDF rates. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:103–123, 2014     

Do we understand each other? Toward a simulated empathy theory for entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurs often face the daunting task of predicting consumer demand before it exists—what consumers will want if and when the entrepreneur might make it available to them. Such alertness and judgment require an entrepreneur's vicarious imagination—the supposition of what a value experience would be like for another—such as empathy. Prevailing theories of empathy, however, are ill-suited for entrepreneurship theory as they are defined as and focused on an emotion-matching process. We propose that empathy be understood instead as a vicarious mental simulation of another's experience that, when accurate, produces similar emotions but also similar experiential knowledge. According to our ‘simulated empathy theory,’ empathy is a rational imagination process, intentional and knowledge-based. We connect this empathy process to contemporary entrepreneurship theory, namely opportunity recognition and evaluation processes. We also revise the concept of empathic accuracy accordingly, and derive therefrom some practical implications regarding how entrepreneurs can increase their empathic accuracy and, thereby, their chances of success.     

Measuring the effectiveness of US monetary policy during the COVID-19 recession

The COVID-19 recession that started in March 2020 led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity across the globe. To fight this recession, policy makers in central banks engaged in expansionary monetary policy. This paper asks whether the measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have been effective in boosting real activity and calming financial markets. To measure these effects at high frequencies, we propose a novel mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model. This model allows us to combine weekly and monthly information within a unified framework. Our model combines a set of macroeconomic aggregates such as industrial production, unemployment rates, and inflation with high-frequency information from financial markets such as stock prices, interest rate spreads, and weekly information on the Fed's balance sheet size. The latter set of high-frequency time series is used to dynamically interpolate the monthly time series to obtain weekly macroeconomic measures. We use this setup to simulate counterfactuals in absence of monetary stimulus. The results show that the monetary expansion caused higher output growth and stock market returns, more favorable long-term financing conditions and a depreciation of the US dollar compared with a no-policy benchmark scenario.     

Unrelated question model with two decks of cards

In this paper, we propose a new unrelated question model for estimating the prevalence of a sensitive characteristic within a population by utilizing two decks of cards. The resultant estimator is then compared to its competitors as to efficiency and as to protection of respondents. A real data application analyzing e-cigarette use among college students is considered.     

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.     

Financial Insecurity in a World of Plenty

Abstract

The U.S. economy is addicted to the simulative impacts of household borrowing. Household debt has grown dramatically since the 1990s and has served to mitigate the detrimental effects of stagnant household wages. The accumulation of this debt has also had the macroeconomic impact of stimulating the economy, pushing it closer towards full employment. However does full employment stimulated by household indebtedness actually represent economic progress? It is argued that even the poorest citizen in a modern industrialized society is better off than a king of feudal Europe, yet in the United States such material prosperity is often tied to social insecurity thanks to debt. The growth of this debt has been enabled by a financial system that has evolved dramatically over the past forty years. The U.S. financial system’s primary role is no longer to finance investment but is rather a tool that enables a separation of ownership from use. Debt has fueled corporate profits which have enriched the shareholding class while at the same time the system has reduced the financial security of the majority of workers. This article crystalizes these issues by analyzing the differentials in financial circumstances faced by workers and shareholders in several major U.S. firms.