Retirement Expectations and Satisfaction with Retirement Provisions

This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved heterogeneity in satisfaction and optimism or pessimism in expectations. The level of the expected replacement rate is found to be positively related to satisfaction: respondents who revise their expectations of the level of their replacement rate upwards tend to become more satisfied with their pension provisions, in particular with the level of the expected benefits. We do not find robust evidence for a relationship between uncertainty and pension satisfaction.     

The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil

This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model.     

Endorse or Not to Endorse: Understanding the Determinants of Newspapers’ Likelihood of Making Political Recommendations

This article investigates the determinants of newspapers’ provision for political opinion. I empirically examine the role of newspapers’ political preferences and market competition on newspapers’ decision to make endorsements. Regression results suggest that market competition turns newspapers more likely to make endorsements. Results from a simple model show that newspapers’ ideology determine their endorsements, making partisan papers more likely to make political recommendations and endorse challengers than non‐partisan newspapers.     

Consumer flexibility,data quality and location choice

We analyze firms’ location choices in a Hotelling model with two-dimensional consumer heterogeneity, along addresses and transport cost parameters (flexibility). Firms can price discriminate based on perfect data on consumer addresses and (possibly) imperfect data on consumer flexibility. We show that firms’ location choices depend on how strongly consumers differ in flexibility. Precisely, when consumers are relatively homogeneous, equilibrium locations are socially optimal regardless of the quality of customer flexibility data. However, when consumers are relatively differentiated, firms make socially optimal location choices only when customer flexibility data becomes perfect. These results are driven by the optimal strategy of a firm on its turf, monopolization or market-sharing, which in turn depends on consumer heterogeneity in flexibility. Our analysis is motivated by the availability of customer data, which allows firms to practice third-degree price discrimination based on both consumer characteristics relevant in spatial competition, addresses and transport cost parameters.     

Swedish economic growth and education since 1800

Abstract.  The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it builds and makes use of long-run data from Sweden on formal education that have never been used to date. Second, it provides a quantitative application of recent theoretical work on the link between demographic changes and economic growth through their effect on education. It concludes that changes in longevity may account for as much as 20% of the observed rise in education over the period from 1800–2000 via a horizon effect, but have little impact on income growth over the period. On the contrary, changes in population density and composition are central, mainly thanks to their effect on productivity. Most income growth over this period would not have materialized if demographic variables had stayed constant since 1800.     

Structural Changes in the Labor Market and the Rise of Early Retirement in France and Germany

The rise of early retirement in Europe is typically attributed to the European system of taxes and transfers. A model with an imperfectly competitive labor market allows us to consider also the effects of bargaining power and of matching efficiency on pre‐retirement. We find that lower bargaining power of workers and declining matching efficiency have been important determinants of early retirement in France and Germany. These structural changes, combined with early retirement transfers and population aging, are also consistent with the employment and unemployment rates, labor share and seniority premia.     

Do brain drain and poverty result from coordination failures?

The bidirectional causal links between high-skilled emigration and poverty can give rise to multiple equilibria and coordination failures. Two countries sharing identical characteristics may end up in either a “low poverty-low brain drain” equilibrium or in a “high poverty-high brain drain” equilibrium. In this paper, we build a model which endogenizes high-skilled emigration and economic performances in order to derive the conditions under which multiplicity occurs. After identifying country-specific parameters, we find that in the majority of developing countries, the best equilibrium is selected and that the observed brain drain is inevitable. In 22 small developing countries however, the worse equilibrium prevails, implying that poverty and brain drain are increased by coordination failure. These countries require appropriate development policies, such as a temporary subsidization of the repatriation of their high-skilled expatriates. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a brain gain mechanism.     

A Jump-diffusion Model for Exchange Rates in a Target Zone

We propose a simple jump-diffusion model for an exchange rate target zone. The model captures most stylized facts from the existing target zone models while remaining analytically tractable. The model is based on a modified two-limit version of the C OX , I NGERSOLL and R OSS (1985) model. In the model the exchange rate is kept within the band because the variance decreases as the exchange rate approaches the upper or lower limits of the band. We also consider an extension of the model with parity adjustments, which are modeled as Poisson jumps. Estimation of the model is by GMM based on conditional moments. We derive prices of currency options in our model, assuming that realignment jump risk is idiosyncratic. Throughout, we apply the theory to EMS exchange rate data. We show that, after the EMS crisis of 1993, currencies remain in an implicit target zone which is narrower than the officially announced target zones.     

Capital and labor misallocation in the Netherlands

Journal of Productivity Analysis - Using firm-level panel data we analyze the misallocation of capital and labor for the Netherlands in the period 2001–2017. We use the dispersion in marginal...     

Governance structures in R&D networks: An analysis in the European context

This paper analyses governance structures used to organize partnerships in R&D networks using two approaches: transaction costs theory and social capital theory. We argue that these theories are complementary; this explains forms of governance through the degrees of administrative (structural and safeguard mechanism) and social factors (cohesion and openness) they embody. Data was obtained from European R&D networks created through Framework Programmes which include a great number of universities, non profit institutions and firms. Findings show the variables that characterize and explain the governance forms based on the applicability of R&D networks. This study not only provides a theoretical model for analysing governance structures of these networks, but is also useful for both improving the management of networks and for fostering collaboration at an international level.