Strategic learning and entry-equilibrium

This paper describes the nature of equilibrium for a dynamic game between a monopolist and an entrant who adopts a learning strategy for cost reduction. The learning process is characterized as a continuous-time Poisson process where each success reduces a part of the entrant's cost difference with the incumbent. The entrant chooses a stream of expenditure after every success to control the instant probability of the next success. The techniques of semi-Markov decision processes are used to characterize equilibrium learning decisions at every stage, distribution of entry times, and the effects of subsidies, technical progress, etc. on pre-entry and post-entry learning strategies.     

Value versus Glamour

The fragility of the CAPM has led to a resurgence of research that frequently uses trading strategies based on sorting procedures to uncover relations between firm characteristics (such as “value” or “glamour”) and equity returns. We examine the propensity of these strategies to generate statistically and economically significant profits due to our familiarity with the data. Under plausible assumptions, data snooping can account for up to 50 percent of the in‐sample relations between firm characteristics and returns uncovered using single (one‐way) sorts. The biases can be much larger if we simultaneously condition returns on two (or more) characteristics.     

Technological acquisitions and the innovation performance of acquiring firms: a longitudinal study

This paper examines the impact of acquisitions on the subsequent innovation performance of acquiring firms in the chemicals industry. We distinguish between technological acquisitions, acquisitions in which technology is a component of the acquired firm's assets, and nontechnological acquisitions: acquisitions that do not involve a technological component. We develop a framework relating acquisitions to firm innovation performance and develop a set of measures for quantifying the technological inputs a firm obtains through acquisitions. We find that within technological acquisitions absolute size of the acquired knowledge base enhances innovation performance, while relative size of the acquired knowledge base reduces innovation output. The relatedness of acquired and acquiring knowledge bases has a nonlinear impact on innovation output. Nontechnological acquisitions do not have a significant effect on subsequent innovation output. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Supply network capacity planning for semiconductor manufacturing with uncertain demand and correlation in demand considerations

A semiconductor supply network involves many expensive steps, which have to be executed to serve global markets. The complexity of global capacity planning combined with the large capital expenditures to increase factory capacity makes it important to incorporate optimization methodologies for cost reduction and long-term planning. The typical view of a semiconductor supply network consists of layers for wafer fab, sort, assembly, test and demand centers. We present a two-stage stochastic integer-programming formulation to model a semiconductor supply network. The model makes strategic capacity decisions, (i.e., build factories or outsource) while accounting for the uncertainties in demand for multiple products. We use the model not only to analyze how variability in demand affects the make/buy decisions but also to investigate how the correlation between demands of different products affects these strategic decisions. Finally, we demonstrate the value of incorporating demand uncertainty into a decision-making scheme.     

Quantifying equilibrium network externalities in the ACH banking industry

We seek to determine the causes and magnitudes of network externalities for the automated clearing house (ACH) electronic payments system. We construct an equilibrium model of customer and bank adoption of ACH. We structurally estimate the parameters of the model using an indirect inference procedure and panel data. The parameters are identified from exogenous variation in the adoption decisions of banks based outside the network and other factors. We find that most of the impediment to ACH adoption is from large customer fixed costs of adoption. Policies to provide moderate subsidies to customers and larger subsidies to banks for ACH adoption could increase welfare significantly.     

管理方法的正确结合——精益与六西格玛的适当结合可使组织获得成功

六西格玛提供了一种基于目标的流程改进框架.爱德华·戴明(W.Edwards Deming)曾说过:"我们相信上帝,但其他人都要用数据说话."这句话已经成为众多六西格玛实践者的座右铭. 相比之下,精益的流程改进框架则是建立在"减少流程浪费"以及"保持流程中的持续流"等核心原则之上.     

Keeping up with the Vaishyas? Caste and relative standing in India

People care about relative, and not only absolute, income. Thispaper investigates the importance of relative income withinand between castes in the Indian caste system, using a choiceexperimental approach. The results indicate that slightly morethan half of the marginal utility of income comes from somekind of relative income effects, on average. This is comparableto the results from previous studies in other countries. Belongingto a low caste and having a low family income are associatedwith higher concern for relative income. Moreover, an increasein the mean income of the caste to which the individual belongs,everything else held constant, reduces utility for the individual.Thus, the negative welfare effect of having a reduced relativeincome compared to the own caste average income dominates thepositive welfare effect due to increased relative income ofthe own caste compared to the income of other castes.     

Military coups and the consequences of durable de facto power: the case of Pakistan

We analyze the role of the military as an independent interest group within the State, based on the two-player theoretical framework of Acemoglu and Robinson (Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2006); we innovate by introducing the military as a third player, a specialist in violence. In particular, we study the conditions under which a democratic regime can prevent a transition to an authoritarian regime via a military coup, when a coup requires the support of both the military and the elite sections of the civilian population. We carry out an historical case study of Pakistan to motivate and illustrate our argument, and show that Pakistan’s three coups since independence are associated with parameter shifts in our model.     

Technology transfer, licensing and the speed of endogenous technological change

As licensing contracts usually require the licensee firm to purchase tied inputs from the seller of the technology, the licensee firm has an incentive to embark on an R&D program for development of substitutes for the tied inputs. This paper characterizes the licensee firm's optimal speed of R&D and the optimal expected date of switch-over to the substitute inputs in an infinite-horizon model under uncertainty about the timing of success of the R&D program. The effects of different government subsidies or taxes, changes in input prices and other parameters on the optimal speed of R&D and on the expected date of switchover to the substitute are also investigated. It is also shown that strategic behavior by the seller of the technology may delay the development of the substitute by the licensee firm.     

When sunspots don't matter

Summary We show that a finite, competitive economy isimmune to sunspots if (i) preferences are strictly convex, (ii) the set of feasible allocations is convex, and (iii) the contingent-claims market is perfect. The conditions (i)–(ii) cover some, but not all, economies with nonconvex technologies. Based on an indivisible-good example, we show that even economies with strictly convex preferences and full insurance arenot in general immune from sunspots. We also show that (1) the sufficient conditions (i)–(iii) are not necessary for sunspot immunity and (2)ex-ante efficiency is not necessary for immunity from sunspots.This paper is based on an earlier paper, Indivisibilities in Production, and Sunspot Equilibrium, presented at the 1990 S.E.D.C. Meetings, Minneapolis-St. Paul, June 1990. The research support of NSF Grant SES-9012780, the Center for Analytic Economics, and the Thorne Fund is gratefully acknowledged.