A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future. S. Niggol Seo is the Consultant to the World Bank.     

Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact ofclimate change on African agriculture has been a challenge.Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates howfarm net revenues are affected by climate change compared withcurrent mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for drylandcrops (temperature elasticity of –1.9) and livestock (–5.4),whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5),which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and arebuffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first,warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigatedcrops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming,however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely.The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation,because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation.Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, wherewater is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation toclimate change in Africa.     

A framework for text mining on Twitter: a case study on joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA)- between 2015 and 2019

Quality & Quantity - In the big data era, there is a necessity for effective frameworks to collect, retrieve, and manage data. As not all tweets are hashtagged by users, retrieving them is a...     

Significance of attitudes,passion and cultural factors in driver’s speeding behavior in Oman: application of theory of planned behavior

Abstract

Traffic accidents and related fatalities have become a major public health problem in the world. This study aims to identify the significant factors that play an important role in the speeding behavior of drivers. A comprehensive questionnaire was designed and conducted with the students and employees of the University of Nizwa. The questionnaire items were designed considering the theoretical background of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and local socio-cultural aspects of the driving environment. A total of 303 usable samples were obtained. The collected data were analyzed using factor analysis and structural equation modelling technique. The extracted factors of speeding passion and culture, speeding attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control are significant determinants of drivers speeding behavior in Oman. The driver’s speeding attitudes, speeding culture, and passion have positive association with the drivers’ speeding intentions and behavior, and driver’s perceived behavioral control forms negative relationship with the speeding behavior. This study confirms the application of the TPB in predicting the drivers’ speeding behavior in the context of Oman.