BOOK REVIEWSS

Gordon, John S. and Jack R. Arnold, Profitable Exporting: A Complete Guide to Marketing Your Products Abroad, New York: John Wiley &; Sons, 1988, vii + 358 pages.

Haggard, Stephan and Chung-in Moon (Eds.), Pacific Dynamics: The International Politics of Industrial Change, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1989, ix + 389 pages.

Eichengreen, Barry, and Lindert, Peter H. (Eds.), The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989, 282 pages.

Cohen, Richard, World Trade and Payments Cycles: The Advance and Retreat of the Postwar Order, New York: Praeger Publishers, 1989, xxiii + 229 pages.

Schaffer, Matt, Winning the Countertrade War: New Export Strategies for America, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1989, xvii + 226 pages.

Grimwade, Nigel, International Trade: New Patterns of Trade Production and Investment, New York: Routledge, 1989, xv + 459 pages.

Salvatore, Dominick, International Economics, 3rd ed. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company, 1990, xxxii + 695 pages.

Hibbert, Edgar P., The Management of International Trade Promotion, London: Routledge, 1990, x + 287 pages.

United Nations Centre on Transnational Corporations, Services and Development: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade, New York: United Nations, 1989, x + 181 pages.

Friedländer, Michael (Ed.), Foreign Trade in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990, xiii + 241 pages.

Rollo, J. M. C., The New Eastern Europe: Western Responses, New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1990, 137 pages.

Gill, William J., Trade Wars Against America: A History of United States Trade and Monetary Policy, New York: Praeger, 1990, xvi + 325 pages.

Destler, I. M., and C. Randall Henning, Dollar Politics: Exchange Rate Policy-making in the United States, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1989, xi + 174 pages.

Schott, Jeffrey J. (Ed.), Completing the Uruguay Round, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1990, x + 223 pages.     

Risk and performance estimation in hedge funds revisited: Evidence from errors in variables

This paper revisits the performance of hedge funds in the presence of errors in variables. To reduce the bias induced by measurement error, we introduce an estimator based on cross sample moments of orders three and four. This Higher Moment Estimation (HME) technique has significant consequences on the measure of factor loadings and the estimation of abnormal performance. Large changes in alphas can be attributed to measurement errors at the level of explanatory variables, while we emphasize some shifts in the economic contents of the equity risk premiums by switching from OLS to HME.     

The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area

Abstract. This paper investigates to what extent the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) of interest rates receives some support since the launch of the European single currency. Empirical evidence shows that in general this theory applies to most European countries, and to Germany in particular. The objective of this paper thus is twofold. First, the EHTS for the German money market and for a larger sample including the German mark period and the euro money market is tested in order to check whether the results for the former are affected by the new financial environment since January 1999. Second, the implications of the results for the monetary policy assessment are discussed. We estimate cointegrating vector autoregressive models in order to quantify the level of the liquidity premium. The results suggest that financial markets do not consider the monetary policy of the European Central Bank simply as the one prevailing during the German period.     

Strategic reward systems: a contingency model of pay system design

A limited number of studies have addressed the idea of ‘strategic’ reward systems—the matching of compensation systems to a firm's strategy. Prior research on this topic has been confined to U.S. firms, however, and a number of key questions remain unanswered. Using a sample of 917 employees from two large Swiss financial institutions, we found that pay systems are linked with divisional strategic orientation, but in a different form than prior studies. Additionally, we identify hierarchical position as an important variable in the tailoring of reward systems. Hierarchy has a significant main effect on pay plan design, and an interactive effect with strategic orientation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa

This paper uses large Factor Models (FMs), which accommodate a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting the per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy. The FMs used in this study contain 267 quarterly series observed over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the RMSEs of one- to four-quarter-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate that the FMs tend to outperform alternative models such as an unrestricted VAR, Bayesian VARs (BVARs) and a typical New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model in forecasting the three variables under consideration, hence indicating the blessings of dimensionality.     

Federalism and Conflicts over Principalship. Some Insights into the American Constitutional History

The article provides an economic interpretation of Kelsen's theory of decentralized governments. It helps to distinguish different forms of federalism and in particular the corresponding conflicts of principalship inside the governmental structure. The model is applied to the early American constitutional history and shows how opposed views of agency relationships in the constitution foreshadowed what would later end up in a civil war.     

Altruism and Determinacy of Equilibria in Overlapping Generations Models with Externalities

This paper deals with an OLG model with production and a single commodity, in which agents are assumed altruistic and the aggregate production function contains external effects. I prove that, if the technology satisfies a minor assumption, which encompasses positive and negative externalities, some curvature conditions on the utility function ensure local determinacy of stationary and period 2 equilibria. I prove that non-separable, strictly concave preferences are a fundamental ingredient for the occurrence of indeterminate equilibria. Finally, considering the case of unbounded growth, I establish that for any utility and production functions a unique balanced growth path is globally determinate.
JEL Classification Numbers: C62, E32     

Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration

The paper considers n-dimensional VAR models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common cyclical features. Two specific reduced rank vector error correction models are discussed. In one, named the “strong form” and denoted by SF, the collection of all coefficient matrices of a VECM has rank less than n, in the other, named the “weak form” and denoted by WF, the collection of all coefficient matrices except the matrix of coefficient of error correction terms has rank less than n. The paper explores the theoretical connections between these two forms, suggests asymptotic tests for each form and examines the small sample properties of these tests by Monte Carlo simulations.