Psychology, Behavioral Economics, and Public Policy

Economics has typically been the social science of choice to inform public policy and policymakers. In the current paper we contemplate the role behavioral science can play in enlightening policymakers. In particular, we provide some examples of research that has and can be used to inform policy, reflect on the kind of behavioral science that is important for policy, and approaches for convincing policy-makers to listen to behavioral scientists. We suggest that policymakers are unlikely to invest the time translating behavioral research into its policy implications, and researchers interested in influencing public policy must therefore invest substantial effort, and direct that effort differently than in standard research practices.     

An Examination of the Long Run Performance of UK Acquiring Firms

This study examines a comprehensive data set of large domestic takeovers by UK listed companies between 1984 and 1992. The contribution of this paper is to show, by using a series of models of abnormal returns, together with the Ibbotson (1975) 'Returns Across Time Series' model and a simple cross-sectional model of returns across all listed UK companies, that the average abnormal return for up to two years post-acquisition is unambiguously and significantly negative. In particular, acquirers financing a takeover through equity, and single (as opposed to regular) acquirers exhibit significant negative performance. There is also some evidence to suggest that diversifying acquirers perform worse than non-diversifying acquirers and that recommended bids are associated with poorer subsequent under-performance by acquirers than are hostile bids.     

BIVARIATE BINOMIAL OPTIONS PRICING WITH GENERALIZED INTEREST RATE PROCESSES

We extend existing pricing models and develop a bivariate binomial option pricing technique that accommodates correlated state variables. This technique offers the ability to price American-style options, thereby accommodating early exercise, despite the existence of two correlated underlying state variables. Our technique is computationally efficient and can be further generalized for multiple-state variables, albeit with an accompanying rise in computational expense.     

Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints

The global financial crisis has undermined many economists' views about the benefits of open financial markets. Anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that financial linkages may propagate shocks during crises. This paper develops a simple two-country model in which financial liberalisation across countries takes place in the presence of credit market distortions within countries. Countries may be subject to macro risk coming from productivity shocks and direct shocks to the credit system (‘financial shocks’). Three different degrees of financial linkages between countries are examined. It is shown that the type of financial integration is critical for both macroeconomic outcomes and welfare. In particular, financial integration in bond markets alone may increase aggregate consumption volatility and reduce welfare. Financial integration in both bond and equity markets generates high positive co-movement across countries, but is welfare-improving.     

Must conditional cash transfer programs be conditioned to be effective? The impact of conditioning transfers on school enrollment in Mexico

A growing body of evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs can have strong, positive effects on a range of welfare indicators for poor households in developing countries. However, there is little evidence about how important each component of these programs is towards achieving these outcomes. This paper tests the importance of conditionality on one specific outcome related to human capital formation, school enrollment, using data collected during the evaluation of Mexico's PROGRESA program. We exploit the fact that some beneficiaries who received transfers did not receive the forms needed to monitor the attendance of their children at school. We use a variety of techniques, including nearest neighbor matching and household fixed effects regressions, to show that the absence of these forms reduced the likelihood that children attended school with this effect most pronounced when children are transitioning to lower secondary school. We provide substantial evidence that these findings are not driven by unobservable characteristics of households or localities.     

Nineteenth century African-American and white US statures: the primary sources of vitamin D and their relationship with height

Vitamin D is vital in all vertebrates because it allows them to absorb more calcium from their diets, contributing to stronger skeletal systems, and taller statures. Using a source of 19th century US state prison records, this study contrasts the statures of comparable African-Americans and whites by the primary sources of vitamin D production: time exposed to solar radiation, skin pigmentation, and nativity. Greater insolation (sunlight) is documented here to be associated with taller black and white statures, and a considerable share of the stature differential by socioeconomic status was related to insolation.