Consumer inertia, firm growth and industry dynamics

We develop a model of firm size, based on the hypothesis that consumers are “locked in,” because of search costs, with firms they have patronized in the past. As a consequence, older firms have a larger clientele and are able to extract higher profits. The equilibrium of this model yields: (i) A downward sloping density of firm sizes. (ii) Older firms are less likely to exit than younger firms. (iii) Larger firms spend more on R&D.     

Increasing returns and the new world of business

Our understanding of how markets and businesses operate was passed down to us more than a century ago by English economist Alfred Marshall. It is based on the assumption of diminishing returns: products or companies that get ahead in a market eventually run into limitations so that a predictable equilibrium of prices and market shares is reached. The theory was valid for the bulk-processing, smokestack economy of Marshall's day. But in this century, Western economies have gone from processing resources to processing information, from the application of raw energy to the application of ideas. The mechanisms that determine economic behavior have also shifted--from diminishing returns to increasing returns. Increasing returns are the tendency for that which is ahead to get further ahead and for that which is losing advantage to lose further advantage. If a product gets ahead, increasing returns can magnify the advantage, and the product can go on to lock in the market. Mechanisms of increasing returns exist alongside those of diminishing returns in all industries. But, in general, diminishing returns hold sway in the traditional, resource-processing industries. Increasing returns reign in the newer, knowledge-based industries. Modern economies have split into two interrelated worlds of business corresponding to the two types of returns. The two worlds have different economics. They differ in behavior, style, and culture. They call for different management techniques, strategies, and codes of government regulation. The author illuminates those differences by explaining how increasing returns operate in high tech and in service industries. He also offers advice to managers in knowledge-based markets.     

Locally Greater Vulnerability to Background Risk

Willingness to take on risk is influenced by the presence of fair and unfair background risks for decision makers who are risk vulnerable as defined by Gollier and Pratt [1996], for these decision makers are more risk averse when they possess such an uninsurable background risk. We present an alternative derivation of the index of local vulnerability based on Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] compensated increases in risk, such that risk aversion increases with the introduction of any small fair background risk if and only if the index of local vulnerability is positive. We establish that the increase in risk aversion is greater for those who are more vulnerable as measured by the index of local vulnerability.     

Estimating within‐cluster spillover effects using a cluster randomization with application to knowledge diffusion in rural India

Spillover effects within randomized clusters pose a challenge for identifying impacts of an individualized treatment. The paper proposes a solution. Longitudinal and intra‐household observations are combined in estimating the direct knowledge gain from watching an info‐movie in rural India, while randomized village assignment identifies knowledge sharing. Simulations on synthetic data and econometric tests provide support for the estimation method. We find evidence of information sharing, but far less so for disadvantaged groups, such as illiterate and lower‐caste individuals; these groups rely more on actually seeing the movie. Our results are consistent with sizeable biases in ordinary least squares, matching or instrumental variable impact estimators that ignore within‐cluster spillovers.     

Viewpoint: Estimating the causal effects of policies and programs

Estimation, inference and interpretation of the causal effects of programs and policies have all advanced dramatically over the past 25 years. We highlight three particularly important intellectual trends: an improved appreciation of the substantive importance of heterogeneous responses and of their methodological implications, a stronger focus on internal validity brought about by the “credibility revolution,” and the scientific value that follows from grounding estimation and interpretation in economic theory. We discuss a menu of commonly employed partial equilibrium approaches to the identification of causal effects, emphasizing that the researcher's central intellectual contribution always consists of making an explicit case for a specific causal interpretation given the relevant economic theory, the data, the institutional context and the economic question of interest. We also touch on the importance of general equilibrium effects and full cost–benefit analyses.     

Land Aggregation Using Contingent and Guaranteed Payments

This article explores the use of alternative payment mechanisms to overcome the holdout problem when multiple parcels of land must be acquired to complete a real‐estate development project. Purchase offers contingent upon successful land aggregation are compared to combination offers containing both guaranteed and contingent payments to determine which approach better mitigates holdout. The distribution of gains between developers and landowners is also examined. The results of a series of economic experiments suggest that contingent offers expedite land aggregation but developer payoffs are higher when combination offers are used. The results offer insight to real‐estate developers participating in land aggregation and inform government entities considering the necessity of public‐sector intervention in real‐estate markets to encourage desired development projects.     

Regulatory initiatives and related activities in the United States

Prevention of chemical incidents is an important issue in the chemical petroleum industries. This issue is receiving focus and attention from a wide spectrum—Industry, Labor, Professional Associations, Environmental Groups Government and the Public. The purpose of this paper is to review the various regulatory initiatives and related activities regarding chemical process safety.     

Öffentliches und Geheimes

In the second half of 2009, the entire media agenda in Germany was dominated by the swine flu, next to the German Federal Parliament elections. Criticism was voiced in the media against the pharmaceutical industry for lobbying the nationwide swine flu vaccination, which was widely considered nothing but a product of the industry’s lobbying power. In order to avoid the usual interviews with lobbyists, we attempted to apply a new methodological framework approach in analysing lobbying processes and key stakeholders in the public sphere—and outside. Crucial to the diversified approach, which involves quantitative content analysis of media coverage and press releases, are interviews with journalists, lobbyists’ network analysis and internet research on biographies. Although a conspiracy could not be conclusively proven, the results do indicate associations that validate the criticism of the industry’s lobbying activities.     

Gas plant problems and the insurance industry

The methodology used by insurance companies in evaluating risk covers both property and casualty insurance. Topics of discussion include: Total Loss Control (How to achieve it, and its relationship to Governmental Regulations), and the importance of equipment design and maintenance in preventing catastrophic losses. This discussion is based on studies of hundreds of large losses over the past twenty-five years.