Tradable deficit permits:efficient implementation of the Stability Pact in the European Monetary Union

Borrowing from the experience of environmental markets, this paper proposes a system of tradable deficit permits as an efficient mechanism for implementing fiscal constraints in the European Monetary Union: having chosen an aggregate target for the Union and an initial distribution of permits, EMU countries could be allowed to trade rights to deficit creation. The scheme exploits countries' incentives to minimize their costs, is transparent and flexible in accommodating idiosyncratic shocks and allows for adjustments in case of Europe-wide recessions. In addition, it need not treat all countries identically and can be designed to penalize countries with higher debt to GDP ratios. Finally, the scheme rewards countries for reducing their deficit below the initial allowance, lending credibility to the Stability Pact's goal of a balanced budget in the medium run.     

On the influence of US monetary policy on crude oil price volatility

Forecasting oil prices is not straightforward, such that it is convenient to build a confidence interval around the forecasted prices. To this end, the principal ingredient for obtaining a reliable crude oil confidence interval is its volatility. Moreover, accurate crude oil volatility estimation has fundamental implications in terms of risk management, asset pricing and portfolio handling. Generally, current studies consider volatility models based on lagged crude oil price realizations and, at most, one additional macroeconomic variable as crude oil determinant. This paper aims to fill this gap, jointly considering not only traditional crude oil driving forces, such as the aggregate demand and oil supply, but also the monetary policy rate. Thus, this work aims to contribute to the debate concerning the potential impact of (lagged) US monetary policy as well as the other crude oil future price (COFP) determinants on daily COFP volatility. By means of the recently proposed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed data sampling model, different proxies of the US monetary policy alongside US industrial production (proxy of the US aggregate demand) and oil supply are included in the COFP volatility equation. Strong evidence that an expansionary (restrictive) variation in monetary policy anticipates a positive (negative) variation in COFP volatility is found. We also find that a negative (positive) variation of industrial production increases (decreases) COFP volatility. This means that volatility behaves counter-cyclically, according to the literature. Furthermore, the out-of-sample forecasting procedure shows that including these additional macroeconomic variables generally improves the forecasting performance.     

Do investors find carbon information useful? Evidence from Italian firms

The usefulness of carbon disclosures has been questioned in the literature because they do not truly reflect firm’s carbon performance, suggesting that they may not be useful for risk evaluation and investment decisions. This study empirically tests the usefulness of carbon information voluntarily disclosed by the Italian firms. Our results based on the price model show that there is a positive association between the stock price and carbon disclosures, suggesting that investors find carbon information useful for their investment decisions. We find similar results based on the market valuation model. Additionally, the results reveal that the positive association is especially strong for firms that have established environmental committees on a voluntary basis and also for firms from the highly polluting industries defined by the EU_ETS program, confirming that investors’ positive response is especially strong to carbon disclosures by firms from the highly polluting industries. We also find that the market reacts positively to carbon disclosures by firms with a higher percentage of independent directors on their corporate boards, but the positive association is marginally significant.     

Redistribution policy: A European model

Following the rationale for regional redistribution programs described in the official documents of the European Union, this paper studies a simple multicountry model built around two regions: a core and a periphery. Technological spillovers link firms' productivity within each of the two regions, and each country's territory falls partly in the core and partly in the periphery, but the exact shares vary across countries. In line with the official view of the European Union, we find that the efficient regional allocation requires both national and international transfers. If migration is fully free across all borders, the optimal redistribution policy results from countries' uncoordinated policies. However, if countries have the option of setting even imperfect border barriers, then efficiency is likely to require coordination on both barriers and international transfers (both of which will be set at positive levels). The need for coordination increases as the Union increases in size.     

The Social Integration of Immigrants and the Role of Policy — A Literature Review

As with economic integration, immigrants’ social integration improves along with their years of residence in destination countries. Policies have some potential to influence the process of social integration.     

Non-convexities in the adjustment of different capital inputs: A firm-level investigation

Recent developments in investment research have highlighted the importance of non-convexities and irreversibilities in firms’ adjustment of quasi-fixed inputs. Aggregation across capital goods may smooth out the discontinuities associated with the adjustment of individual assets. Lack of suitable data is one of the reasons why empirical work has typically relied on the assumption of capital homogeneity. In this paper we exploit a data set of 1539 Italian firms which allows us to disaggregate capital into equipment and structures, and purchases and sales of assets. We construct measures of fundamental Q to capture investment opportunities associated with each asset. We uncover the pattern of dynamic adjustment by using non-parametric techniques to relate each individual investment to its own fundamental Q.     

Anonymous market and group ties in international trade

History provides many examples of cohesive groups dispersed over several countries who exploit the ties between their members to gain entry into foreign markets. The phenomenon is well-established empirically and noteworthy because it suggests the importance of informational barriers in international transactions. We present a simple model where output is produced through a joint venture, and agents have complete information domestically but are unable to judge the quality of their match abroad. A minority of individuals, otherwise identical to all others, can exploit complete information in international matches between group members, if they so choose. Group ties increase aggregate trade and income, but hurt the anonymous market because they deprive it disproportionately of the group’s more productive members.     

Assessing and predicting financial vulnerability of Italian households: a micro-macro approach

In this study we develop a micro-founded model to analyse the economic-financial conditions of Italian households. Using household level data, we build an indicator to identify vulnerable households based on their budget constraint and the composition of their financial portfolio. Then, we calculate the impact of the predicted trends of macroeconomic variables on the indicator in order to monitor its evolution in the short term (2015–2017). The empirical analysis is based on the Survey of Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy and on a set of macroeconomic forecasts. Our findings suggest that the macroeconomic scenario for the period 2015–2017 implies a progressive reduction in the percentage of vulnerable households for the full extent of the projection.     

Firm life cycle stages and earnings management

We provide evidence that the differences in economic growth and stability of firms during different stages of their life cycle encourage managers to manage the reported earnings differently to achieve their goals. Our findings support the expectation that managers adjust the reported earnings upward using positive discretionary accruals during the introductory and decline stages of firm life cycle. The upward adjustment of reported earnings during the introductory stage enables them to achieve the objective of sending positive signals on firm performance when the firm is in a formative stage, and also provides a better base for prediction of future earnings. The upward adjustment of reported earnings during the decline stage are expected to enhance firm’s life, which would enable managers to take remedial actions to improve firm performance, especially when the firm is in a distress situation. On the other hand, our findings show that managers may consider using negative discretionary accruals during the growth and maturity stages so that they can save some earnings for use during later years when firm performance compared to market expectations is weak. The managers are, however, not likely to adjust the reported earnings downward when the reported earnings fall short of market expectations. Additionally, we find that large institutional shareholdings perform effective monitoring and discourage managers to use discretionary accruals because their use may result in lower reliability of reported earnings.