The Gravitation of Market Prices as A Stochastic Process

The theory of value has been based ever since Adam Smith on the idea that the market prices of commodities, those at which actual trade takes place, gravitate around a central position known as natural prices. This article seeks to develop a statistical idea of the process in question and suggests in particular that market prices can be said to gravitate around natural prices if the probability of their means being very close to natural prices after t observations tends to 1 as t tends to infinity. A set of possible conditions leading to that result is also presented.     

Confirmatory factor analysis to validate a new measure of food insecurity: perceived and actual constructs

Quality & Quantity - Food crises in 2008 raised the need for more timely and effective policy instruments to monitor and fight food insecurity. FAO developed the Food Insecurity Experience...     

Equal Pay for Equal Task: Assessing Heterogeneous Returns to Tasks across Genders

We inspect the heterogeneous association between tasks and wages across genders using individual-level data on U.S. workers. Our findings suggest that women receive a higher wage premium when engaged in cognitive tasks and experience more contained wage losses when performing manual activities. However, a wage penalty characterizes women engaged in highly social intensive jobs. Further inspection reveals that this result is especially driven by the teamwork component of social activities.     

Incentivizing Vegetable Consumption in School-Aged Children: Evidence from a Field Experiment

We conducted a field experiment to test the effect of nonmonetary incentives in increasing children's vegetable consumption during lunch at school. We measured children's daily vegetable consumption for four consecutive weeks prior to the provision of incentives, for four consecutive weeks during the incentive provision, and for three consecutive weeks right after the provision of incentives. To check the longer-term effect of the incentive provision, we measured children's daily vegetable consumption 11 weeks after the postintervention period. Results suggest that the incentives are effective in increasing vegetable consumption and that this effect persisted several weeks after the provision of the incentives ended. This is an important topic since gaining a better understanding of effects of nonmonetary incentives can help in the design of nutrition and health policies aimed at improving the dietary behavior of children and potentially reducing childhood obesity.     

DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa

Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policy-making – especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, for example alternative measures of inflation that might be of interest to policy-makers, do not feature in the model. Given this, we implement a closed-economy New Keynesian DSGE model-based procedure which includes variables that do not explicitly appear in the model. We estimate such a model using an in-sample covering 1971Q2 to 1999Q4 and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1 to 2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables (both core and nonmodelled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models such as AR(1). In addition, based on ex-ante forecasts over the period 2012Q1–2013Q4, we find that the DSGE model performs better than the AR(1) counterpart in forecasting actual GDP deflator inflation.     

A higher-order model of community resilience potential: development and assessment through confirmatory composite analysis based on partial least squares

Quality & Quantity - The topic of community resilience attracts as much academic research as it does social media. Understanding the drivers of change and community adaptation in the face of...