WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW CAN HURT YOU: KNOWLEDGE PROBLEMS IN MONETARY POLICY

Many economists hold that monetary policy missteps played a role in causing or prolonging the 2007–2008 financial crisis. In light of the perceived failure of monetary orthodoxy, models are being theoretically refined and empirically recalibrated. Absent from these technical debates is a recognition of the immense knowledge burdens inherent in monetary policy. We argue that Fed authorities do not have the knowledge required to achieve their own monetary objectives, given their inability to approximately measure or predict changes in the demand for money. Finally, we evaluate the ability of free banking to overcome this knowledge problem. (JEL E42, E52, E58, E61, P16)     

$$\mathcal{D}$$-optimal Minimum Support Mixture Designs in Blocks

An easy method to construct efficient blocked mixture experiments in the presence of fixed and/or random blocks is presented. The method can be used when qualitative variables are involved in a mixture experiment as well. The resulting designs are -optimal in the class of minimum support designs. It is illustrated that the minimum support designs are more efficient than orthogonally blocked mixture experiments presented in the literature and only slightly less efficient than -optimal designs.     

How does perceived underemployment influence expatriate job-related outcomes? A moderated mediation study

Abstract

Although research has investigated the consequences of underemployment in domestic settings, research on the effects of underemployment among expatriates remains limited and has yielded inconsistent results. From a theoretical perspective, there is a need for a better understanding of the mechanisms through which underemployment affects various work-related outcomes and to account for potential contingencies. Drawing on the person-job fit literature and research on organizational identification, we theorise and empirically examine how and under what conditions underemployment influences expatriate performance. Using an original primary data-set of 103 Japanese expatriate managers in the UK, we find that underemployment affects expatriate work outcomes by increasing expatriates’ maladjustment and that this effect is moderated by the level to which expatriates identify with their organization.     

Past experience of uncertainty affects risk aversion

In an experiment with more than 500 participants we study how past experience of uncertainty (imperfect knowledge of the state space) affects risk preferences. Participants in our experiment choose between a sure outcome and a lottery in 32 periods. All treatments are exactly identical in periods 17–32 but differ in periods 1–16. In the early periods of the risk treatment there is perfect information about the lottery; in the ambiguity Treatment participants perfectly know the outcome space but not the associated probabilities; in the unawareness treatment participants have imperfect knowledge about both outcomes and probabilities. We observe strong treatment effects on behavior in periods 17–32. In particular, participants who have been exposed to an environment with very imperfect knowledge of the state space subsequently choose lotteries with high (low) variance less (more) often compared to other participants. Estimating individual risk attitudes from choices in periods 17–32 we find that the distribution of risk attitude parameters across our treatments can be ranked in terms of first order stochastic dominance. Our results show how exposure to environments with different degrees of uncertainty can affect individuals’ subsequent risk-taking behavior.     

A GOODWINIAN MODEL WITH DIRECT AND ROUNDABOUT RETURNS TO SCALE (AN APPLICATION TO ITALY)

This paper re‐formulates and tests statistically a hypothetical law (HL) of capital accumulation that manifests itself in three scenarios for Italian economy. HL refines Verdoorn law and ‘Ricardian’ relationship between employment and returns; it generalizes neoclassical and Goodwinian models. Big cycles are not sustainable in inertia Scenario I. Lowering direct diseconomy of scale does not alter a non‐trivial stationary state in stabilization Scenario II. Weakening an inverse relation between employment ratio and growth rate of capital intensity raises stationary relative labour compensation without deteriorating profitability in stabilization Scenario III. Stationary states with zero relative labour compensation are not economically relevant.     

Decision parameters in global R&D management

This paper addresses the question of which variables have what kind of impact on the decision to locate new R&D facilities in countries different from the home country of a corporation. In the first section of the paper we demonstrate the complexity of this question by referring to empirical research, managerial statements and literature. We then develop a conceptual model for the location decision of international R&D activities. This is based on Porter's (1990) framework of the factors constituting the competitive advantage of nations. In the final section of this paper we show how such a model helps us to understand and also to explain a number of management issues related to global R&D activities.     

Market Power,Efficiency and the Dispersion of Systematic Risk

A number of studies have used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to integrate product market and financial theories of the firm. We reexamine the relationship between product market structure and systematic risk at the firm and industry level. We show that theory yields no testable implications at the firm level. We show, however, that there is a relationship between the intraindustry dispersion of systematic risk and industry concentration which depends on the causes and consequences of concentration. Estimates of the relationship between the intraindustry variance of and concentration for a 1987 cross-section of U.S. industries suggest that concentration allows larger firms to exercise market power.