FDI,income inequality and poverty: a time series analysis of Portugal, 1973–2016

Portuguese Economic Journal - Using time series data for Portugal between 1973 and 2016, this paper examines to what extent, inward FDI contributes to income inequality and poverty in the long-run....     

A note reconsidering a post-Keynesian model of growth and distribution in the globalization context

We treat an extension of the Metcalfe and Steedman model of growth and distribution in a small open economy with government activity. We show, simultaneously, that certain kinds of taxation and government expenditures will not affect the essential nature of the “Cambridge Equation.” This is important due to the increasing process of Financial Globalization which can be responsible for changing the profit distribution between capitalists and workers. The present note aims at integrating the public sector and the foreign trade together into the model, based on previous literature that, with few exceptions, treats them separately. To do so, a new framework is proposed. Our contribution shows that workers’ income grows when the Current Account in the balance of payments is in surplus, a result not studied by Teixeira and Araújo. The discussion includes recent literature concerning with limits of applicability of such analytical model, dealing with more realistic economies including the process of globalization.     

Existence of a calibrated regime switching local volatility model

By Gyöngy's theorem, a local and stochastic volatility model is calibrated to the market prices of all European call options with positive maturities and strikes if its local volatility (LV) function is equal to the ratio of the Dupire LV function over the root conditional mean square of the stochastic volatility factor given the spot value. This leads to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) nonlinear in the sense of McKean. Particle methods based on a kernel approximation of the conditional expectation, as presented in Guyon and Henry‐Labordère [Risk Magazine, 25, 92–97], provide an efficient calibration procedure even if some calibration errors may appear when the range of the stochastic volatility factor is very large. But so far, no global existence result is available for the SDE nonlinear in the sense of McKean. When the stochastic volatility factor is a jump process taking finitely many values and with jump intensities depending on the spot level, we prove existence of a solution to the associated Fokker–Planck equation under the condition that the range of the squared stochastic volatility factor is not too large. We then deduce existence to the calibrated model by extending the results in Figalli [Journal of Functional Analysis, 254(1), 109–153].     

Editors’ note

Portuguese Economic Journal -     

The Influence of General Strikes against Government on Stock Market Behavior

Using a sample of 76 countries, this paper examines the impact of major strikes against government and its policies on stock market behavior. An occurrence of a general strike is detrimental to the value of equities, as documented by the ceteris paribus 6.11% fall in dollar-denominated stock market indices of the affected countries. This event is also accompanied by a statistically significant increase in risk, as measured by the standard deviation of returns and Value-at-Risk metrics. Taken together, these results imply that general strikes have serious ramifications for stock market investors.     

DATA‐DRIVEN DRAFTING: APPLYING ECONOMETRICS TO EMPLOY QUARTERBACKS

We show that firms can employ data‐driven methods to improve their hiring decisions. Specifically, we use data available to National Football League (NFL) teams prior to the NFL draft to estimate econometric models that predict the future performance of drafted quarterbacks. As our methods are replicable, stakeholders can use them to improve the draft's efficiency and help it accomplish its mission to promote competitive balance. Furthermore, data‐driven methods such as ours can help firms avoid biases against employee characteristics that do not affect future job performance. (JEL L83)     

Spanning with American options

In this paper, we investigate the existence of multiperiod American options generating dynamically complete markets. We show that if a primitive security separates states at the terminal date, then generically there exist multiperiod American options on that security generating dynamically complete markets. We also provide an example of an economy in which multiperiod American options on a primitive security generate dynamically complete markets, while multiperiod European options do not.     

Banks’ earnings: Empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial market factors

The structure of income is a foremost address within research on banks’ performance, especially with regard to effects on the resilience of banks’ earnings. Indeed, given their central position in the economy, banks shall thrive to generate sustainable earnings and control for their potential volatility. Existing studies mostly consider the weight of non‐net interest income (nonNII) as opposed to the traditional NII income source. Such aggregated nonNII is found to increase earnings risk but more granular studies conflict. We propose an original investigation of the influence of economic and financial conditions on various income types, assuming that performance may actually be driven by both the income structure and external conditions. We focus European banks, which have long been allowed to diversify beyond retail banking. Out of a straight panel framework, we question if the influence of external conditions spreads to earnings components other than credit losses and trading income and if it does allow for diversification benefits among components. We find that each component actually evolves owing to its own equation. Furthermore, effects of single variables may cumulate over different components of earnings (e.g. GDP) or provide with diversification benefits. These effects are all the more important since they are not mitigated by operating expenses. Hence, over a regarded period, banks’ performance depends upon their structure of income and upon volatilities and correlations of influential variables. Besides controlling for ex‐ante volatility, our approach shows that a given structure of income is not necessarily more resilient than others but that selected non‐banking income may support a higher stability of Earnings     

Is the Erosion Thesis Overblown? Alignment from Without in Germany

It is sometimes alleged that collective bargaining coverage in Germany is understated because uncovered firms “orient” themselves toward sectoral agreements. In fact, although orientation has grown as sectoral bargaining has declined, their joint frequency has fallen. Further, where orientation occurs at firms that leave a sectoral agreement, it provides only partial compensation. The small deficits involved, in conjunction with some indirect evidence on joiners, suggest some modest attenuation of the undoubted decline in collective bargaining.