Financial Issues and Catching up in Eastern Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

What Would Normalisation of Economic Relations Between Mashrek Countries,Turkey and Israel Imply?

This article examines the potential for economic cooperation among Mashrek countries, Turkey and Israel in the fields of trade in goods and services both separately and across‐field. It first describes the macroeconomic features of the region and then estimates the overall potential for inter‐industry trade in goods by estimating gravity equations for each country separately and the potential for intra‐industry trade using Grubel‐Lloyd indices. The article also examines the potential for trade in specific services, namely information and computer technology, transport, financial and health services.     

Thinking about predation — A personal diary

Special Consultant, National Economic Research Associates. Inc.     

Urban renewal: The case of Buffalo,NY

Scholars of urbanism have long been critical of America’s post-World War II efforts at urban renewal. What is generally less well understood is the theoretical context out of which urban renewal policy arose. This analysis sets forth the key precepts of modernist thinking in city planning as the explanation for urban renewal’s policy miscalculations. Data for Buffalo document the case, with emphasis upon the exclusion of blacks in the redevelopment process. Following three decades of failure, 1950 to 1980, a neighborhoodbased renewal project is now showing promise in meeting the housing needs of inner-city black households.     

Estimating firm-level and country-level effects in cross-sectional analyses: An application of hierarchical modeling in corporate disclosure studies

Researchers in the field of international accounting are often confronted with observations of firms clustered into higher-level units such as countries. Using data from a corporate disclosure study including 797 firm observations from 34 countries, we demonstrate that the inferences obtained from the most commonly used Ordinary Least Square (OLS) test, which pools the firm and country data either under the disaggregation or aggregation approach, are problematic and misleading. To overcome the methodological limitation, we subsequently employ hierarchical modeling to simultaneously estimate both firm-level (within-country) and country-level (cross-country) disclosure determinants. We find that the clustering effects are significant in almost all firm-level variables. Once such effects are adjusted, only three firm-specific variables are significantly associated with corporate disclosure. Evidence provided by this study has important implications for most international accounting studies conducted in cross-level contexts.     

The future of work and work-life balance 2025

This paper explores the concept of the future of work and identifies some of the challenges that Europe will increasingly face in regards to economic, social and demographic changes. We argue that workers will find themselves in an age of transition driven by new technological opportunities and the feminization of the labor force. The consequences of these changes will affect the organization of future work and the concept of the work-life balance. Special attention is given to the Scandinavian models and cases, as the welfare states of the north are often regarded as being on the forefront concerning the work-life balance. We will demonstrate how aging is affecting Denmark and purport that the Scandinavian model will face significant challenges. We describe the components of work-life balance and present alternative fictionalized scenarios for future work that highlight the interplay between macroeconomics and the work-life balance.     

Chinese Walls in German Banks*

Analysts in a bank’s research department cover firms that have no relationship with the bank as well as companies in which the bank has a strategic interest. Officially, banks must establish Chinese Walls around their research departments to allow the analysts to work independently and to avoid the flow of insider information. We examine analyst behavior under long-term bank-firm relationships using ownership data and analysts’ earnings per share forecasts for German companies from 1994 to 2001. We find evidence that is consistent with analysts reconciling their employers’ interests with their own career concerns. They seem to use their information advantage strategically by releasing favorable and thereby more precise reports when the market underestimates earnings. In order not to jeopardize the bank-client relationship, they suppress negative information when the market is too optimistic. Combining situations where the market over- and underestimates earnings, we can replicate the unconditional positive bias in analyst forecasts found in the previous literature. Despite the bias in affiliated analysts’ forecasts, they nonetheless selectively communicate valuable information to investors. *We gratefully acknowledge the contribution of I/B/E/S International Inc. for providing earnings per share forecast data. This data has been provided as part of a broad academic program to encourage earnings expectations research. We thankfully acknowledge financial support from the Austrian National Bank (OeNB) under the Jubil?umsfonds grant number 8523. We thank Werner Antweiler, Michael Halling, Helmut Elsinger, Evelyn Hayden, Greg Hebb, Cornelia Kullmann, Kai Li, Colin Mayer, Stefan Pichler, Duane Seppi, Alex Stomper, Neal Stoghton, Michael Stutzer, Suresh Sundaresan, Yishay Yafeh, Josef Zechner, Christine Zulehner, an anonymous referee, and seminar participants at UBC, the Northern Finance Association meetings, the Western Finance Association meetings, and the European Finance Association meetings for helpful comments and Eva Smolen for excellent research assistance.     

Zu den methodologischen Grundproblemen

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Zur gegenwärtigen Krisenlage und inflationistischen Krisenbekämpfungspolitik

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