Concessionary lending to developing countries

International transfers to promote the development of countries in the Third World began at the end of the Second World War. At first they were in the form of grants, mostly to colonies or ex-colonies. Then official development assistance from most industrial countries to most developing countries was institutionalized as it became apparent that the international capital market was inadequate in size and too costly for very poor countries. This led to official international lending on increasingly ‘soft’ terms. The ‘softening’ was brought about in a long complex discussion among the lending governments mostly within the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Theoretical and practical considerations brought the argument substantially to an end in the late 1970s with the widespread acceptance of the principle that, after all, grants were preferable for the poorest of developing countries.     

Returns to networking in academia

This paper examines effects of academic networks in a Stackelberg differential game between journal editors and authors. Authors choose research papers to maximize satisfaction, while editors determine research quality to maximize journal reputation. Verifying the system for stability, results show that academic networks neither affect the number of publications nor the quality of an author’s papers. Networks only affect the number of an author’s citations. Editors’ preferences for publishing an author because of her network membership seem irrelevant. This happens because editors compete to increase their journal’s reputation by publishing high quality papers. Consequently, there is little room for editorial bias. Further, increased journal competition has the potential to erode the citation gains. The equilibrium research quality is below the maximum possible quality. Increases in publication benefits are shown to leave citations unaffected, increase the number of publications, and decrease research quality. The results generally carry through when publishing markets tend to a monopoly.     

What Is Fashion in Chinese Designers＇ Eyes？

Beihing experienced a hot autumn, heated further by the China Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2011 Collection which ran fromOctober 24th to November 1st. Over the course of 9 days,     

More Thoughts on the SH Expo

Vistor number Up to July 12,73days have past since the opening day of the Shanghai Expo,marking 40% of the whole 184 day Expo period,running from May 1 to October31,2010.The total number of visitors has reached 26,375,700 perosn-times,roughly 38% of the 70million person target,or an average of 380 thousand visitors per day.     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

Bayesian selection of technology assumptions for the transformation from supply-use to input–output tables

ABSTRACT

In the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them.     

Stakeholders,the natural environment and the future of Caribbean cruise tourism

Given the sheer complexity of effectively managing the web of potential stakeholders in any tourism development it is argued that for the future of Caribbean cruise tourism, the task is compounded by several key issues that warrant discussion. These include the economic dependency of the Caribbean region on tourism, the inequity of power relations between the various stakeholder groups and the lack of proven collaboration within this fragmented region of culturally diverse islands. This paper addresses these issues, discussing the importance of collaboration and planning for development, highlighting the disparate needs of the different stakeholders involved and drawing attention to the continuing paradox between maximising the opportunities presented by Caribbean cruise tourism whilst effectively managing its sustained development. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley &Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between risk experience and risk response: a study of farmers and climate change

Within the existing literature, the role of experience of risk on attitudinal and behavioural risk response has been relatively neglected. Recent research that draws on the psychological distance of climate change as a concept notes the importance of local, significant experience as a driver for encouraging appropriate response. The experience of flooding was used as the stimulus in this paper, and emphasis placed on whether direct and/or indirect experience of flood risk is associated with different responses to climate change risk. In order to explore the relationship between climate change risk experience and response in the form of on-farm mitigation and adaptation, this paper draws on a case study of farmers in England, many of whom have experienced flooding. Results from a quantitative survey undertaken with 200 farmers in Gloucestershire, England are discussed. Statistical analysis found experience of flooding to be significantly associated with a heightened concern for climate change. Although also finding an association between experience and behavioural response, the sample were most likely to be taking adaptive behaviour as part of normal practice, with factors such as lack of overall concern for climate change risk and absence of information and advice likely to be the main barriers to action. Risk communication needs to further emphasise the connection between climate change and extreme weather events to allow for farmers to perceive climate change as a relevant and locally salient phenomenon, and subsequent tailored information and advice should be offered to clearly illustrate the best means of on-farm response. Where possible, emphasis must be placed on actions that also enable adaptation to other, more immediate risks which farmers in this study more readily exhibited concern for, such as market volatility.     

The Impact of a Conditional Cash Transfer Programme on Consumption in Colombia*

This paper studies the impact of a conditional cash transfer programme in Colombia on the total consumption of very poor households and on its components. Our evaluation methodology involves comparing household expenditures in areas in which the programme was not implemented (control) and those in which it was (treated). We use a quasi‐experimental approach, as the Familias en Acción programme was not randomly assigned across localities, for political reasons. We condition on a large range of household‐ and municipality‐level characteristics, and also control for pre‐programme differences in the outcomes of interest using a differences‐indifferences methodology. We find that the programme has been effective at greatly increasing total consumption and its main component, food consumption, in both rural and urban areas. The programme has also contributed to improvements in the quality of food consumed, in particular of items rich in proteins (milk, meat and eggs) and of cereals. Furthermore, the programme has created redistributive effects in favour of children through expenditure on education and children's clothing, while it has not significantly affected consumption of adult goods such as alcohol and tobacco or adults’clothing.