An Evaluation of Alternative Methods of Forecasting Australian Inflation

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the forecast of Australian inflation based on four alternative procedures: a univariate time series model, an interest rate model, an error correction model and a public survey of inflation forecasts. We derive estimates of expected and unexpected inflation from each of the methods and compare the out-of-sample forecasting results. Based on a range of evaluation criteria, the time series model dominates the other models, with the interest rate model, the error correction model and the survey forecasts following in that order.     

Conditions for invariance of the multivariate versions of grubbs’ test and bartlett’s test under a general dependency structure

Summary This paper generalizes a result by Stadje (1984) by deriving conditions for which a general dependency structure for multivariate observations, given in Pavur (1987), yields a positive definite covariance structure. This general dependency structure allows the sample covariance matrix to be distributed as a constant times a Wishart random matrix. It is then demonstrated that the maximum squared-radii test and a test for equal population covariance matrices have null distributions which remain unchanged when the new general dependency structure, rather than the usual independence structure, for the vector observations, is assumed. Moreover, under a general dependency structure for which the population covariance matrices are unequal, it is shown that the distribution of the test statistic for testing equal covariance matrices is identical to the distribution of the same test statistic when the population covariance matrices are equal and the observations are independent.     

全球股市低迷 亚洲首当其冲

一年前，当信贷危机在美国和欧洲刚刚崭露头角时，许多投资者都将亚洲股票视为了天堂。时至今日，全球股市经历了6个多月的下跌，而亚洲市场的跌幅位居前列。     

Integrating the disabled into the work force: A survey of fortune 500 company attitudes and practices

Full participation in the work force continues to be an elusive goal for disabled individuals. One common explanation for this state of affairs is that employers tend to have negative attitudes about what the handicapped have to offer as employees and what is required to integrate them into the work force. Unfortunately, relatively little recent data is available about such attitudes. Thus, a survey of Fortune 500 companies was conducted to examine employers' attitudes toward the disabled. Employers' hiring and accommodation practices were also examined. Results were encouraging for the handicapped in some areas (e.g., performance perceptions) and a cause for concern in others (e.g., the perceived cost of making workplace accommodations). Level of exposure to the handicapped was also related to attitudes and practices. Limitations, research directions, and implications for corporations are discussed.     

The Determinants of the Cost Efficiency of Electric Generating Plants: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

This article provides a detailed analysis of generation plant operating cost efficiency over the period 1988-1997. I estimate a stochastic frontier cost function together with a model of plant inefficiencies to measure the operating efficiencies of individual plants and identify factors that are associated with variations in plant efficiencies. I find evidence that plant efficiencies are associated with capacity utilization of the plant, the number of plants under utility management, and ownership form. I also find that regulatory restructuring activity in certain states is associated with improvements in plant operating performance.     

On the formation of interaction networks in social coordination games

There are many situations where two interacting individuals can benefit from coordinating their actions. We examine the endogenous choice of partners in such social coordination games and the implications for resulting play. We model the interaction pattern as a network where individuals periodically have the discretion to add or sever links to other players. With such endogenous interaction patterns we see multiple stochastically stable states of play, including some that involve play of equilibria in the coordination game that are neither efficient nor risk-dominant. Thus the endogenous network structure not only has implications for the interaction pattern that emerges, but it also has a significant impact on the play in the coordination game relative to what would arise if the same interaction network were exogenous.     

A random walk through the Gibson paradox

Evidence to support the Gibson paradox is often given in the form of a simple correlation between the nominal interest rate and the log of price level, or in the form of a simple linear regression between these two variables. Authors then show, using standard procedures of statistical inference, that the price level possesses a significant coefficient. We argue that this class of evidence is spurious since the nominal interest rate and the price level (both integrated variables) do not form a cointegrated system.     

Ethical dilemmas in performance appraisal revisited

In managers' dynamic, real-world environments, they often feel it is necessary to exercise some creative discretion over employee ratings. Most managers do not describe their ratings of subordinates in performance appraisals as completely honest or accurate. The inaccuracy is often in the form of inflated ratings. They justify the inaccuracy by sighting, among other things, the need to avoid confrontation with subordinates, damaging working relationships, and creating permanent written documents which may later harm a subordinate's career. Many of these motives are not only well intentioned, but are designed to enhance individual, unit, and organizational performance (some of the ultimate objectives of performance appraisal systems.) This paper examines the ethics of this sort of deliberate manipulation of performance appraisal systems. It suggests that at the organizational level, performance appraisal is usually seen as an end in itself, and a formalist ethical critique is applied. At the managerial level, performance appraisal is usually seen as a means to an end, and a utilitarian critique is applied. Since both perspectives are essential, we conclude that a Janus-Headed analysis is needed. We suggest some duties and obligations for both the organization and the manager engaged in performance appraisal.Clinton O. Longenecker is an Associate Professor of Management at the University of Toledo and has published a variety of articles in both academic and professional journals on the topic of performance appraisal. Dean C. Ludwig is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of Toledo whose teaching and research focuses on ethical issues in marketing and management. Both have extensive industrial and educational experience and are active management consultants.