The dark side of financial innovation: A case study of the pricing of a retail financial product

The offering prices of 64 issues of a popular retail structured equity product were, on average, almost 8% greater than estimates of the products' fair market values obtained using option pricing methods. Under reasonable assumptions about the underlying stocks' expected returns, the mean expected return estimate on the structured products is slightly below zero. The products do not provide tax, liquidity, or other benefits, and it is difficult to rationalize their purchase by informed rational investors. Our findings are, however, consistent with the recent hypothesis that issuing firms might shroud some aspects of innovative securities or introduce complexity to exploit uninformed investors.     

INTERPRETING THE DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC SECTOR BUDGETING: A DIALECTIC OF CONTROL APPROACH

Developing a dialectic of control theoretical framework, the paper shows how the theory may be applied to explain turbulence in public sector budgeting. Applying the framework to fieldwork research in two large UK local authorities, the study explores the knowledge and intentionality of actors engaged in budgeting. Focusing on a crisis in educational funding, cognitive issues based around unreliability of cost and planning data were significant factors behind tactical successes for local budgetees. Central government, however, was able to exert power through its ability to change the rules, leading to new structures for public education provision. The dialectical framework avoids the reductionism and functionalism that characterises some of the budget gaming literature and also has potential implications for interpreting step changes in public funding.     

HUMAN CAPITAL AND CONVERGENCE: A PRODUCTION‐FRONTIER APPROACH*

Using nonparametric, production‐frontier methods, we decompose labor productivity growth into components attributable to technological change (shifts in the world production frontier), technological catch‐up (movements toward or away from the frontier), and physical and human capital accumulation (movements along the frontier). We find that (1) technological change is decidedly nonneutral, (2) productivity growth is driven primarily by physical and human capital accumulation, (3) the increased international dispersion of productivity is explained primarily by physical capital accumulation, and (4) international polarization (the shift from a unimodal to a bimodal distribution) is brought about primarily by efficiency changes (technological catch‐up).     

Applications of general equilibrium models to the 1986 tax reform act in the United States

Summary This paper examines the structure and predictions of six applied general equilibrium models used to evaluate the 1986 Tax Reform Act in the United States. The models agree that the effects on national income will be fairly small. They disagree on the size of the improvement in economic efficiency from more neutral taxation of different capital assets, and on the size of the intertemporal inefficiency when capital formation is discouraged through a higher rate of taxation. This new application of general equilibrium models to an actual reform highlights the need to test predictions against empirical evidence.The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. The author is grateful to J. von Sinderen, Laus Bovenberg, Lawrence Goulder, and other participants at the conference for their helpful comments, and to the authors of the studies reviewed in this paper for instructive discussions.Prepared for The Netherlands Central Planning Bureau Symposium on Applied General Equilibrium Models, Noordwijk, December 4–5, 1989.     

The effect of geographical deregulation on bank acquisition premiums

In recent years, many state legislatures have passed laws allowing greater geographical expansion by banking organizations, including interstate acquisitions. The reduction of barriers to geographic expansion may be expected to affect signficantly the prices paid in bank acquisitions. According to the excess demand hypothesis, merger premiums should be larger because of an increase in the number of potential bidders. According to the barriers to entry hypothesis, however, premiums should decrease as the constraints on geographic expansion are relaxed. This study presents empirical results that are consistent with the excess demand theory. Bank merger premiums are significantly larger in states that permit interstate banking. Furthermore, premiums appear to increase significantly in the year following the passage of enabling legislation. Premiums are also greater in states that allow unlimited intrastate holding company acquisitions. Some evidence also exists to support the barriers to entry hypothesis.