Do Chinese Retail Option Traders Know Anything about Market Volatility?

This paper examines the information content of implied volatility in the Chinese covered warrant market and finds that the implied volatility is consistently higher than the realized volatility for all warrants and across all maturities. The implied volatility has very little information content for future volatility in the Chinese warrant market which is dominated by retail investors. Possible explanations for the results are regulatory issues such as restrictions on the short-selling of warrants, differential trading rules for stocks and warrants, high leverage and low trading costs and a market dominated by retail investors.     

Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics

This paper argues that time-series econometrics provides valuable tools and opens exciting research opportunities to marketing researchers. It allows marketing researchers to advance traditional modeling and estimation approaches by incorporating dynamic processes to answer new important research questions. The authors discuss the challenges facing time-series modelers in marketing, provide an overview of recent methodological developments and several applications, and highlight fruitful areas for future research. This discussion is based on the First Annual Conference on Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA on September 16–17, 2004.Insights from the First Annual Conference, Tuck School of Business at DartmouthThis revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

The effect of time-varying covariances on asset risk premia

In this article we examine an intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows for time-varying conditional covariances that are assumed to follow a multivariate integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (IGARCH) process. The resulting pricing equation includes idiosyncratic risk premia in addition to the usual market beta. Empirical analysis based on ten size and ten industry portfolios reveals significant idiosyncratic premia for most portfolios. Overall, we reject the static CAPM in favor of the intertemporal CAPM.     

Corporate performance and firm perception: The British experience

Previous academic research has presented a theoretical basis for a relationship between attributes of a firm's reputation and its financial performance. For the United States, researchers have analysed the correspondence between market and accounting based measures of US firm performance and external evaluators' perceptions of the qualitative attributes of US firms. In this study, expert surveys on the qualitative performance of British firms conducted by the British publication, the Economist, which are similar in content to surveys conducted by Fortune magazine for US firms, are used to determine the correspondence between qualitative and quantitative measures of British firms' performance. Results indicate that differences may exist between US and Britain in the use of qualitative survey data on a firm's strategic attributes as a forecast of a firm's future quantitative performance measures. Results also indicate that for small firms, certain qualitative factors (e.g. capacity to innovate) may be of greater importance in forecasting accounting and security market returns.     

Investment barriers and international asset pricing

In this article a multicountry model of international asset pricing is developed. This model incorporates a more general representation of the degree of segmentation in the international capital market. Specifically,N types of investors andN classes of securities are postulated. In general, thenth (n=1, 2, 3, ...N) type of investor has access to all security markets up to and including thenth class. Using the standard mean-variance framework, closed form equilibrium risk return relationships are obtained for all classes of securities. It is also shown that class 1 securities are priced as if markets are integrated, classn (n=2, 3 ...N) securities commandn different risk premia. Finally, the nature of the model specification allows us to investigate the effects of partial integration on investor welfare. It is shown that, in general, all investors prefer full integration to any form of partial integration.     

Globalization of Smaller Firms: Field Notes on Processes

Smaller firms have played a pivotal role in the present decade of globalization. Reduced barriers to international trade and investment coupled with the advances in information technology have accorded opportunities for smaller firms -- employing fewer than 500 persons -- to emerge as multinational. The focus of this exploratory paper is on the how of their globalization or internationalization. Information from field studies of seven firms -- three Dutch and four American -- obtained by means of personal interviews with senior managers constitutes the primary qualitative data. Considering the convenient choice of the firms and the subjective nature of the recall data the paper, without claiming to draw any inferences, offers three initial propositions, for further refinement, expansion and empirical testing.     

Gender quota in the civil service and female participation: Evidence from Nepal

Female quotas for high-ranking positions in corporations and governments should (i) increase the hiring of women and (ii) inspire more women to apply for these positions. The goal will be that eventually, (iii) even without the quota, more women will apply to and succeed in high-ranked positions. This paper exploits the variations of female quotas in Nepalese civil service exams across years, services, ranks and exams within the same service to investigate these three effects. Empirical results show that female quotas in a given exam increase applications and the hiring of women. Even in exams without a quota, the female quotas of other exams within the same service increase the number of female applicants.     

India's trade balance in the 1980s an econometric analysis

The paper is an examination of India's trade balance in the 1980s. The approach attempted is of examining the bilateral trade balances of India with nine trading partners from the non-communist bloc. The long-run equilibrium relations are studied via two VAR models in Johansen's multivariate cointegration framework. Five hypotheses of interest are singled out for attention. The nominal and real exchange rates consistently emerge as important influences on the trade balance. However, as the exchange rates fail weak exogeneity tests, policy implications are not clear cut.     

Hierarchical thinking and learning in rank order contests

We analyze a class of coordination games in which the Kth player to submit an entry wins a contest. These games have an infinite number of symmetric equilibria and the set of equilibria does not change with K. We run experiments with 15 participants and with K=3, 7, and 11. Our experiments show that the value of K affects initial submissions and convergence to equilibrium. When K is small relative to the number of participants, our experiments show that repeated play converges to or near zero. When K is large, an equilibrium is often not reached as a result of repeated play. We seek explanations to these patterns in hierarchical thinking and direction learning.