The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK

The United Kingdom is a highly open economy, and has a monetary policy strategy of targeting inflation in consumer prices. In this paper, we look at the evidence from the UK on inflation behaviour, and examine the propositions from several theoretical models about inflation dynamics in an open economy, focusing in particular on the hypothesized connections between the exchange rate and consumer price inflation. Theoretical open‐economy macroeconomic models ‘cover the waterfront’ on this issue, ranging from ‘exchange rate disconnect’ to a rigid link between nominal exchange rate changes and inflation. We estimate on UK data the open‐economy Phillips curves implied by the alternative explanations. We argue that, of the alternatives considered, only a model where imports are modelled as an intermediate good, as in McCallum and Nelson (1999) , provides a reasonable match with the data. Unlike the standard model, in which imports are treated as a final consumer good, the intermediate‐goods specification provides support for a policy of CPI inflation targeting.     

New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries

This paper updates and extends the time-series evidence on the convergence of international incomes using a set of 29 countries over the period 1900–2001. Time-series tests for stochastic convergence are supplemented with tests which provide evidence on the notion of “β-convergence” predicted by the Solow model. The evidence indicates that the relative income series of 21 countries are consistent with stochastic convergence, and that β-convergence has occurred in at least 16 countries at some point during the twentieth century. Further examination of the properties of the β-convergence test provides anecdotal evidence of conditional convergence in three additional countries for which the convergence hypothesis was initially rejected. Consideration of convergence clubs strengthens the evidence in favor of convergence. Analysis of the cross-country dispersion of incomes over time also suggests that convergence has occurred over the 1900–2001 period, particularly within certain clubs, with structural breaks associated with World War II in many countries causing a break in the convergence process.      

Why do venture capital firms exist? theory and canadian evidence

This paper investigates the role of venture capitalists. We view their “raison d’être” as their ability to reduce the cost of informational asymmetries. Our theoretical framework focuses on two major forms of asymmetric information: “hidden information” (leading to adverse selection) and “hidden action” (leading to moral hazard). Our theoretical analysis suggests four empirical predictions.1. Venture capitalists operate in environments where their relative efficiency in selecting and monitoring investments gives them a comparative advantage over other investors. This suggests strong industry effects in venture capital investments. Venture capitalists should be prominent in industries where informational concerns are important, such as biotechnology, computer software, etc., rather than in “routine” start-ups such as restaurants, retail outlets, etc. The latter are risky, in that returns show high variance, but they are relatively easy to monitor by conventional financial intermediaries.2. Within the class of projects where venture capitalists have an advantage, they will still prefer projects where monitoring and selection costs are relatively low or where the costs of informational asymmetry are less severe. Thus, within a given industry where venture capitalists would be expected to focus, we would also expect venture capitalists to favor firms with some track records over pure start-ups. To clarify the distinction between point 1 and point 2, note that point 1 states that if we look across investors, we will see that venture capitalists will be more concentrated in areas characterized by significant informational asymmetry. Point 2 says that if we look across investment opportunities, venture capitalists will still favor those situations which provide better information (as will all other investors). Thus venture capitalists perceive informational asymmetries as costly, but they perceive them as less costly than do other investors.3. If informational asymmetries are important, then the ability of the venture capitalist to “exit” may be significantly affected. Ideally, venture capitalists will sell off their share in the venture after it “goes public” on a stock exchange. If, however, venture investments are made in situations where informational asymmetries are important, it may be difficult to sell shares in a public market where most investors are relatively uninformed. This concern invokes two natural reactions. One is that many “exits” would take place through sales to informed investors, such as to other firms in the same industry or to the venture’s own management or owners. A second reaction is that venture capitalists might try to acquire reputations for presenting good quality ventures in public offerings. Therefore, we might expect that the exits that occur in initial public offerings would be drawn from the better-performing ventures.4. Finally, informational asymmetries suggest that owner-managers will perform best when they have a large stake in the venture. Therefore, we can expect entrepreneurial firms in which venture capitalists own a large share to perform less well than other ventures. This is moral hazard problem, as higher values of a venture capitalist’s share reduce the incentives of the entrepreneur to provide effort. Nevertheless, it might still be best in a given situation for the venture capitalist to take on a high ownership share, since this might be the only way of getting sufficient financial capital into the firm. However, we would still expect a negative correlation between the venture capital ownership share and firm performance.Our empirical examination of Canadian venture capital shows that these predictions are consistent with the data. In particular, there are significant industry effects in the data, with venture capitalists having disproportionate representation in industries that are thought to have high levels of informational asymmetry. Secondly, venture capitalists favor later stage investment to start-up investment. Third, most exit is through “insider” sales, particularly management buyouts, acquisitions by third parties, rather than IPOs. However, IPOs have higher returns than other forms of exit. In addition, the data exhibit the negative relationship between the extent of venture capital ownership and firm performance predicted by our analysis.     

Organizational capabilities in e-commerce: An empirical investigation of e-brokerage service providers

E-commerce not only has tremendous potential for growth but also poses unique challenges for both incumbents and new entrants. By examining drivers of firm performance in e-commerce from a capabilities perspective, the authors conceptualize three firm capabilities that are critical for superior firm performance in e-commerce: information technology capability, strategic flexibility, and trust-building capability. The extent and nature of market orientation is conceptualized as a platform for leveraging e-commerce capabilities. The authors test the effects of e-commerce capabilities on performance (e.g., relative profits, sales, return on investment) using data from 122 e-brokerage service providers. The results indicate that information technology capability and strategic flexibility affect performance given the right market orientation. Amit Saini (asaini2@unl.edu) is an assistant professor of marketing at University of Nebraska-Lincoln. He conducts research in the area of marketing strategy, technology-marketing interface, e-commerce strategy, and customer relationship management. He has presented papers at major conferences, and his research appears in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science and American Marketing Association—Marketing Educator’s Conference Proceedings. His industry experience includes sales management and quantitative market research. Jean L. Johnson (Johnsonjl@wsu.edu) is a professor of marketing at Washington State University. Her research includes partnering capabilities development in, and management of, interfirm relationships and management of international strategic alliances. Her research appears in journals such as theJournal of Marketing, the Journal of International Business Studies, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing. She serves on the editorial boards of theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Retailing, theJournal of Business and Industrial Marketing, and reviews for others. She spent several years in the advertising industry and has lived, taught, and conducted research in France and Japan. She has been selected to cochair the 2006 winter American Marketing Association (AMA) conference.     

Nonparametric identification and estimation of random coefficients in multinomial choice models

We show how to nonparametrically identify the distribution of unobservables, such as random coefficients, that characterizes the heterogeneity among consumers in multinomial choice models. We provide general identification conditions for a class of nonlinear models and then verify these conditions using the primitives of the multinomial choice model. We require that the distribution of unobservables lie in the class of all distributions with finite support, which under our most general assumptions, resembles a product space where some of the product members are function spaces. We show how identification leads to the consistency of a nonparametric estimator.     

Publishers, artists, and copyright enforcement

This paper investigates whether and to what extent there is a conflict of interest between artists and their publishers, regarding to whether and to what degree illegal distributions of their copyrighted recordings should be prevented. This conflict arises because artists also earn their profit from other market activities such as giving live performances, in addition to their share of profits from sales of their copyrighted recordings via the publishers.     

Does diversity matter? A fresh inquiry into the energy,economy and environment nexus

ABSTRACT

The article extends the literature on the nexus among economy, environment and energy by incorporating an index of electricity generation diversity in production and emission functions. The index is mathematically equivalent to Herfindahl–Hirschman index. The index captures substantial information regarding the ongoing energy transition at the global level. The results obtained through pooled mean group estimation, on a dataset of fairly diversified group of countries, indicate that if diversity index increases by a percentage point, per capita income increases by 2.4% and per capita emissions are reduced by 0.71%. This is against the conventional wisdom in favour of specialization. The study has found some interesting long-run causal pathways. Firstly, the causality runs from diversification to income. Secondly, there is a causality running from electricity consumption to specialization. Thirdly, bi-directional causality runs between emissions and specialization. The results have interesting policy implications. The study supports the growth hypothesis that the electricity consumption drives the economy. As this inevitably increases emissions, a better pathway is through diversification. The fossil fuel intensive pathway may have been the preferred choice in the past for countries with low electricity consumption; the diversified portfolio appears to be prudent in the future.     

Opening the Pandora's box? Trade openness and informal sector growth

This article constructs a labour transition model combining the features of job loss and job creation in the formal sector of an economy. The theoretical model examines the impact of trade liberalization on net job transition from formal to informal sector. In the light of our model we establish certain pre-conditions based on simulations under which trade liberalization is accompanied by rising informal sector. The model outcome conforms to the empirical evidence of rising informality with openness which we find in 18 Central Eastern European and Former Soviet Union countries.     

Venture-Capital Syndication: Improved Venture Selection vs. The Value-Added Hypothesis

Syndication arises when venture capitalists jointly invest in projects. We model and test two possible reasons for syndication: project selection, as an additional venture capitalist provides an informative second opinion; and complementary management skills of additional venture capitalists. The central question is whether venture capitalists are engaged primarily in selection or in managerial value added. These alternatives imply contrasting predictions about comparative returns to syndicated and standalone investments. Our empirical analysis, using Canadian data, finds that syndicated investments have higher returns, favoring the value-added interpretation. We also discuss risk sharing and project scale as possible reasons for syndication.