Looking back at looking forward: A check of some fortune forecasts

We will have to wait to see how good our present forecasting methodologies are, but we can test futurologists of earlier times. The author has checked a selection of Fortune's forecasts as far back as 1933. Examination reveals that predictions were on target in three areas-technology, general trends, and structural change in the economy. They fell far short of the mark, however, in the areas of legal, political, and international constraints; the personal impact of economic factors; and the personal impact of various innovations. But the failures were often not too far off and the correct ones, if heeded, could have saved us time and money. Unfortunately, the people problems that plagued the Fortune forecasts are still unsolved today.     

Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents

This paper examines global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising within one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. An agent based model is set up in which the agents are Western economies. A country has a probability of entering recession in any given year and one of emerging from it the next. In addition, the agents have a threshold propensity, which varies across time, to import a recession from the agents most closely connected to them. The agents are connected on a network, and an agent’s neighbours at any time are either in (state 1) or out (state 0) of recession. If the weighted sum exceeds the threshold, the agent also goes into recession. Annual real GDP growth for 17 Western countries 1871–2006 is used as the data set. The model is able to replicate three key features of the statistical distribution of recessions: the distribution of the number of countries in recession in any given year, the duration of recessions within the individual countries, and the distribution of ‘wait time’ between recessions i.e. the number of years between them. The network structure is important for the interacting agents to replicate the stylised facts. The country-specific probabilities of entering and emerging from recession by themselves give results which are by no means as well matched to the actual data. We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some extremely helpful comments.     

Patterns of multi-agent land conservation: Crowding in/out,agglomeration, and policy

Private agents make large contributions to networks of conserved land, but little is known about how private agents’ decisions might be altered by government actions. This paper explores the impact of public conservation and public policy on the quantity and configuration of private land conservation and the extent to which the social optimum is reached. Because land conservation benefits often have thresholds and spatial characteristics, we consider the impact of different land conservation benefit functions on the patterns of conservation created by the interaction of private and public agents. We find that public conservation crowds private conservation in or out depending on whether marginal conservation benefits increase or decrease with total acreage, and crowding out is mitigated by the presence of budget constraints. We show how land conservation agents might interact strategically in space depending on preferences over fragmentation, and we explore that spatial strategic interaction in a case with a regional land trust and a case with hot-spot parcels. We identify when government policies, such as agglomeration bonuses and mitigating coordination costs, are most likely to increase the social benefits provided by private land conservation agents.     

Rainfall variability in tropical Africa: Some implications for policy

Rain is the basic ingredient for the existence of Africa and its people. This article introduces the ‘baseline’ rainfall climatology of Africa and looks at examples of fluctuations in the last 50 years. The author then puts forward some suggestions on the implications of such variability for planning and policy making.     

Knowledge exchange in networked organizations: does place matter?

While many studies of knowledge exchange have been undertaken in private and service organizations, government and R&D enterprises, few have studied scientific inter‐organizational collaborations. Furthermore, in the literature on international networks there has been a tendency to assume that knowledge exchange will be inevitably enhanced by global dispersion. Two linked dynamics deserving further study are the role of geographic proximity and the role of information and communication technologies in facilitating knowledge flow across international networks. Studies of intra‐ and inter‐firm knowledge transfer, managerial work values and cultural norms all point to China as being a fascinating counterpoint for the way knowledge exchange might occur in Europe. So in this study of the ATLAS collaboration, a ‘big science’ global network of 3,500 physicists, we explore the perceptions of two subgroups: UK physicists working in Europe and Chinese scientists based in Beijing and HeFei. Findings from 24 interviews and non‐participant observation reveal that face‐to‐face working at European Organization for Nuclear Research (Geneva) is not without its difficulties, but for a variety of sociocultural reasons, it is primarily the Chinese scientists who perceive themselves to be inhibited from full participation in effective knowledge exchange.     

Feminism and the Physical Cultural Studies Assemblage: Revisiting Debates and Imagining New Directions

Abstract

The relationship between feminism and PCS is complex and an exemplar of the politics of knowledge production. We begin this paper by detailing the evolving relationship between feminism and PCS, and identify two key ways that feminist sport scholars have responded to PCS. Whereas one group has rejected PCS outright, another is reappropriating PCS for their own purposes. Aligning with the latter, in the remainder of the paper we offer one of many possible imaginings of a feminist interpretation of the PCS assemblage. More specifically, we briefly outline how a feminist engagement with some of the key tenets of PCS facilitated new understandings of New Zealand women’s embodied experiences of netball, includingMāori women.In so doing, we reveal what a FPCS approach might look like in practice and highlight ways that feminist scholars have, and can continue to, contribute to the PCS agenda through embodied, theoretical, reflexive, political, contextual and culturally-specific research.     

Financial Integration and EMU’s External Imbalances in a Two-Country OLG Model

The pronounced increase in external imbalances in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) during the years running up to 2008 is traditionally explained by financial integration through the common currency. This paper examines in a one-good, two-country overlapping generations’ model, with production, capital accumulation and public debt, the effects of financial integration on the net foreign asset positions of initially low-interest and high-interest rate EMU countries. We find that a lower savings rate and government expenditure quota, together with a higher capital production share in the latter can in fact be transformed into the observed external imbalances when interest rates converge.     

Effects of store loyalty on shopping mall loyalty

The key purpose of this paper is to bridge a research gap in shopping mall literature by investigating the relationship between store loyalty and shopping mall loyalty. The paper also examines the effects of perceived store value and store relationship commitment on store loyalty en-route to loyalty towards the shopping mall hosting the stores. The study shows that store loyalty influences shopping mall loyalty under certain conditions and that such an influence is moderated by the geographic distance between the consumer and the shopping mall. Further, the study found that distance has a moderating effect on the relationship between perceived store value and store loyalty, but not on the association between relationship commitment and store loyalty. The insights provided by this study offer academics, retailers and shopping mall managers a richer understanding of the relationships between store loyalty and its antecedents, customers' distance from the mall, and shopping mall loyalty.