Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean. First version received: Feb. 1999/Final version received: June 2001     

Environmental regulatory enforcement with “green” consumers

We consider a standard probabilistic model of random monitoring to analyze the interactions between a firm and a monitoring agency in the presence of “green” consumers when compliance payoffs are contingent on monitoring and monitoring costs are shared by the monitoring agency and the firm. When the amount paid by the firms if monitored is exogenously fixed, we find that full compliance is implemented with a finite fine. If there is an upper bound for the fine and the regulator determines endogenously the fine and the amount paid by the firms if monitored, we find that full compliance is also achieved, although the optimal fine is now set at its maximum level. The optimal amount paid by the firms if monitored is lower than the environmental premium the compliant firm gets.The author thanks two anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions     

Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports

This paper applies smooth transition models to capture the nonlinear behavior in the imports data of six major European economies and to assess whether such nonlinearities are related to business cycle asymmetries. Two classes of switch between regimes are considered: endogenously determined transition that assumes nonlinearities are generated by idiosyncratic components specific to foreign trade, and exogenous transition based on GDP growth as a more direct indicator of the cyclical state of the economy. The results support the proposition that the dynamics of imports are nonlinear. In Belgium, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom, regimes change over the business cycle, while in Germany and Italy the switch between regimes is endogenous. National characteristics play a role in defining the position of extreme regimes, the smoothness of the transition, and local dynamics within each state.Previous versions of this article have been presented at the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Lisbon, Portugal, March 10–14, 2004) and at the VII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Vigo, Spain, June 3–5, 2004). The authors thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Strategic Environmental Standards, Wage Incomes and the Location of Polluting Firms

The purpose of this paper is tostudy how the choice of environmental standardsby governments is affected by the existence ofwage incomes when firms locations areendogenous. In developed countries labor isunionized, which allows positive wage incomesto arise. Thus, each government has incentivesto persuade firms to locate in its countrysince social welfare depends on suchincomes. But, as pollution damages theenvironment, each government will only try toattract polluting firms to thecountry, to obtain the wage incomes, whenthe valuation of environmental damage showsthat it is low.     

Sample attrition and labor force dynamics: Evidence from the Spanish labor force survey

In this paper we examine a number of issues that arise in investigating labor force dynamics using the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA). These issues are by no means specific to the Spanish case and apply to most European-style labor force surveys. Our main conclusions may be summarized as follows. First, survey nonresponse cannot be neglected. Second, the EPA tends to underestimate employment and participation of high-educated young people, and to overestimate those of the low-educated elderly. Finally, we find little evidence that attrition causes important selection biases in estimating quarterly transition probabilities.     

Problems and environment of small businesses in the Czech Republic

The impressive and spontaneous build-up of the private small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Czech Republic in 1990–93 coincided with the similarly dramatic changes in the public administration and in the whole environment for decision-making. The resulting problems of SMEs in the Czech Republic seem to be common to all economies in transition. A lot of the problems are caused by the macroeconomic policy for which this sector is not the most important part of the national economy. The paper shows some conflicts between macroeconomic anti-inflationary (monetary and fiscal) policies, and interests of small businesses. The authors stress the importance of SMEs during the period of transition. Informal aspects of the functioning of small firms are discussed, especially their relation with banks and public administration. The paper offers some empirical evidence and available statistics on SMEs developments during 1990–94 focusing particularly on manufacturing.     

Congestion effects in a public-good economy

This paper considers a public-good economy with congestion, where participants jointly produce a public good from input of a private good. This economic model gives rise to a transferable-utility game, the profit game, that depends on consumer preferences and a congestion parameter. The simplicity of the game allows the maximum level of congestion that guarantees the nonemptiness of the core of the economy to be determined. It is known that the sustainability of the Lindahl equilibrium in the core of the economy depends on the distribution of profits. In this paper two distributions of profits are compared: the Lindahl solution and the marginal-contribution solution. The latter is more often in the core than the Lindahl solution which in turn Lorenz-dominates the marginal-contribution solution.     

Automatic balancing mechanisms for notional defined contribution accounts in the presence of uncertainty

The notional defined contribution model combines pay-as-you-go financing and a defined contribution pension formula. This paper aims to demonstrate the extent to which liquidity and solvency indicators are affected by fluctuations in economic and demographic conditions and to explore the introduction of an automatic balancing mechanism (ABM) into the pension scheme. We demonstrate that the introduction of an ABM reduces the volatility of the buffer fund and that, in most cases, the automatic mechanism that re-establishes solvency produces the highest value of the risk-adjusted notional factor.